Source: CNBC
Security & Justice
State Action Signals Change in Tackling Longstanding Illegal Land Grabs in Jbeil District
For years, the serene villages of Jbeil's highlands have been far from peaceful. Ghabat, a Maronite village nestled between the predominantly Shiite towns of Afqa and Lassa, has become a focal point of growing tensions due to territorial disputes.
Friday, December 20, 2024
Mawlawi Ensures Strict Monitoring for Wanted Syrian Regime Figures at Beirut Airport
Caretaker Minister of Interior, Bassam Mawlawi, conducted an inspection tour of Rafic Hariri International Airport in Beirut to review the security arrangements and measures implemented by the Airport Security Apparatus ahead of the holiday season.
Thursday, December 19, 2024
Opinion
Lebanon After the Assads
The United States has important equities in Lebanon, including a desire for a generally friendly government’s economic and political stability; security cooperation; long-standing relations with the large Christian community in Lebanon and Lebanese diaspora in the United States; and ultimately peace between Israel and Lebanon within a broader regional settlement. Achieving these objectives will require navigating a tumultuous period in the country’s history following a war between Hezbollah and Israel that has devastated a large part of the country, exacerbating Lebanon’s already challenging economic conditions. But perhaps the most important dynamic will be how a likely Sunni-dominated state of uncertain composition in Syria will differ in its intentions toward Lebanon from the previous Alawite-led minoritarian Assad regime.
Thursday, December 19, 2024
Europe’s Syrian Dilemma
The news of the sudden and unexpected demise of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has met a mixed response in Europe. The jubilation that a murderous dictator and close ally of Russia and Iran has fallen is not just good for the Syrian people but serves as a morale booster for Eastern Europeans wondering whether Russia can be defeated
Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Sports
Cristiano Ronaldo Unveils New Private Jet Worth $73 Million
Cristiano Ronaldo, one of the richest global athletes, has unveiled his upgraded private jet reportedly worth $73 million. With its top-notch design, exceptional speed and range of 7500 nautical miles, the Gulfstream G650 is among the fastest jets in the world.
Monday, December 16, 2024
Guardiola Accepts Man City May Need to Sign More Players to Cope with Schedule
Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola believes he will need a bigger squad to handle soccer’s ever-expanding fixture schedule.
Saturday, December 14, 2024
Tuesday 18 July 2023 12:07:11
China’s Risk of Deflation Is ‘Serious’ — One Economist Says 'It’s Time to Act’
Fears are growing that China’s economy is tethering on the verge of deflation after another slate of underwhelming economic data provided more evidence of stagnating growth, renewing calls for more meaningful policy intervention.
On Monday, Beijing announced that GDP for the second quarter grew 6.3% from a year ago, missing market expectations for 7.3%. This also marked a 0.8% growth from the first quarter, slower than the 2.2% quarter-on-quarter pace recorded in the first three months of the year.
“We need to see broad and persistent price pressure before we can declare deflation,” said Hong Hao, Grow Investment Group’s chief economist. “This is happening in the upstream sectors and it normally takes two to four quarters to pass down.”
“I think we are on the verge of deflation. Now it’s the time to act to stem the deflationary pressure,” he added.
Hong pointed to official data last week showing that China’s producer prices fell 5.4% in June from a year earlier and slipped 0.8% from a month ago — falling below analysts’ expectations. The annual decline in June was China’s ninth consecutive drop and its steepest since December 2015.
Annual consumer price inflation was flat in June — driven by a 7.2% drop in pork prices — missing Reuters’ expectations for a 0.2% rise and weaker than the 0.2% rise in May.
China pushback
The People’s Bank of China pushed back on the deflation thesis last week.
“At this time there is no deflation, and there will be no risk of deflation in the second half of the year,” Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the PBOC, told reporters last week. He pointed to factors such as China’s economic recovery and growth in money supply.
Chinese banks extended 1.81 trillion yuan ($258.23 billion) in new yuan loans in June, up 22% from May.
Still, some economists are pointing to other indicators.
“Nominal GDP growth turns out to be lower than real GDP growth in Q2, the first time since comparable data are available in Q4 2016,” said Zhang Zhiwei, Pinpoint Asset Management’s president and chief economist. “This indicates that risk of deflation is serious.”
Nominal gross domestic product measures economic activity without adjustment for inflation.
Economists at Citi and Macquarie also flagged the risk of sagging prices in the world’s second-largest economy following Monday’s release.
However, Macquarie economists Larry Hu and Yuxiao Zhang characterized the condition in China as disinflation — a temporary slowdown of rising prices — rather than deflation, which refers to a more serious problem where there’s a persistent decrease in prices over time.
“Disinflation pressure is evident, as nominal GDP growth slowed to 4.8% year on year in 2Q from 5.0% in 1Q. It’s the first time since the second quarter of 2020 that the GDP deflator has turned negative,” Hu and Zhang wrote in their assessment of Monday’s data release.
More downgrades
A raft of other June data have pointed to a weak prognosis. Even though top-line fixed asset investment and industrial output figures marginally exceeded market expectations, there was a worrying deepening decline in property investment.
Even with a low base from last year, given the Covid lockdown in Shanghai, retail sales slowed to 3.1% in June from a year before, compared to 12.7% in May.
Monday’s disappointing data triggered another slew of downgrades by Wall Street banks, including Barclays, Citi, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan.
Economists cut their forecast for China’s annual growth, underscoring the depth of the exuberance on China’s economic recovery when it emerged from strict zero Covid curbs late last year.
Citi, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan now expect China’s annual growth print this year to come in at 5%, while Barclays trimmed its forecast from 5.3% to 4.9%.
