Lebanon will not disarm Hezbollah by the US-imposed deadline, risking a major escalation in the Middle East, current and former Israeli military officials have warned.

The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) have been tasked with seizing and destroying all of the Iran-backed terror group’s weapons by Dec 31.

In May, Nawaf Salam, Lebanon’s prime minister, said that they had achieved 80 per cent of their goal in demilitarising southern Lebanon.

But despite optimism earlier in 2025 regarding the LAF’s efforts, Israel has grown increasingly doubtful they will succeed.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, an Israeli military official told The Telegraph that despite the LAF “acting in ways it hasn’t in decades” it is still not doing enough to fully disarm Hezbollah.

Responding to Mr Salam’s claim that 80 per cent of Hezbollah had been disarmed in southern Lebanon, the official added: “That’s a difficult number to accept.”

Lebanon’s failure to root out Hezbollah could have major repercussions in the region.

The White House reportedly approved a $230m (£174m) package to help the LAF carry out the disarmament plan, and failure risks Donald Trump’s wrath.

Israel too could respond with even more force to Hezbollah’s build-up.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, has ordered regular strikes on Lebanon following a ceasefire agreement, but he could ramp up his operations in an attempt to wipe out the group.

The official said: “The main challenge is that Hezbollah has entrenched itself deeply within private civilian infrastructure. They rent homes, farms and private land, and use civilian areas to store weapons.

“The LAF doesn’t enter private homes, and in many places they hesitate to confront local Shia residents, and Hezbollah exploits this,” the official said.

“The way they define success is very different from ours. If the IDF were clearing an area, we would sweep everything until we knew it was clean.

“LAF measures success according to its own limited plan – locations they choose to scan based on historical data. So maybe they completed 80 per cent of their plan, but that does not mean the area is 80 per cent clear of Hezbollah.”

The discrepancy between how the IDF and LAF define a fully demilitarised area means that LAF claims of completion are likely to be met with deep scepticism.

A Lebanese army soldier patrols near the Israeli border. The LAF faces an ‘impossible’ task in disarming better equipped Hezbollah fighters Credit: Wael Hamzeh/EPA/Shutterstock

“If they [LAF] declare the area 100 per cent clean by Dec 31, we won’t accept it unless they also address private infrastructure, which is where the real threat lies,” the official added.

In recent months, the disarmament process appears to have slowed, with the LAF reportedly using its entire explosives arsenal to destroy Hezbollah arms caches.

Israel says it has detected increased efforts by Hezbollah to smuggle weapons into Lebanon from Syria and rebuild its capabilities throughout the country, particularly north of the Litani River.

The Israeli military has significantly escalated its attacks on the group, launching daily strikes across Lebanon, which has been met with fury in Beirut.

The IDF estimates it has killed 370 Hezbollah members during the year-long ceasefire.

Last week, an Israeli air strike killed Hezbollah’s military chief, Haytham Ali Tabatabai, in Beirut, a move seen as a message to the Lebanese government that Israel’s patience is running out.

Former Israeli military intelligence chief, Tamir Hayman, told The Telegraph that there was a “low chance” from the outset that the LAF would ever succeed in the “impossible mission” of disarming Hezbollah.

The Lebanese government lost its motivation to disarm Hezbollah somewhere around August, Mr Hayman said, suggesting there’s now an “increased co-operation behind the scenes” between the two.

“The government is afraid of Hezbollah’s power and sees a civil war as the only existential threat to Lebanon,” Mr. Hayman said.

He added that Iran was channelling “large sums of money” to the terror group, and that the Iranian Quds Force’s special representative to Lebanon openly works out of Beirut to help rebuild it.

Israel has continued to target Hezbollah fighters after agreeing to a ceasefire. A strike on Nov 23 killed the militant leader Haytham Ali Tabatabai Credit: Adri Salido/Getty Images

Sarit Zehavi, founder and president of Alma, a research and education centre specialising in Israel’s northern security challenges, also doubts Lebanon’s demilitarisation efforts.

“How many pictures did the LAF publish of rockets they confiscated? Very few, if we compare that to the massive amount of videos of weapons that the IDF confiscated during the war,” she said.

“LAF is not searching house to house. It is not entering private territories. The outcome is therefore clear. That’s why they find much less.

“We want to see proof in order to rebuild the trust that the LAF is doing something right,” she added.

Ms Zehavi said the Lebanese government’s attitude toward Hezbollah must “thoroughly change”.

“The Lebanese government is still waiting for everybody else to do something, for the US to give them money and Israel to bomb Hezbollah. They’re not willing to clash violently with Hezbollah,” she said.

She said the government was trying to resolve the issue through dialogue. “And that’s not possible because part of Hezbollah’s essence is to be an armed militia and to Islamise Lebanon completely.”

As for the future, Mr Hayman believes that it is only a matter of time before a “major escalation” occurs between Israel and Hezbollah.

“I can see the operational benefit of the large-scale aerial campaign to boost [the Lebanese government’s] political procedures and diplomatic motivation to disarm Hezbollah,” he said.

“The question is, what will be different after the second escalation?”