Israeli drones swept back into Beirut’s skies shortly after Pope Leo XIV’s plane departed the city, ending a brief and carefully managed calm that had prevailed during his visit.

The resumption of aerial activity underscored that the lull was dictated by diplomatic sensitivities rather than any real shift in Israel’s military posture, as United States and Israeli officials held talks and European governments warned of further volatility on the Lebanese front.

Israel’s public broadcaster said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz met United States envoy Morgan Ortagus “amid the Israeli threats to Lebanon,” an indication that the northern front featured prominently in their talks.

In parallel, the Yedioth Ahronoth daily quoted a European diplomat as saying there was “a risk of rising tensions on the Lebanese front after the assassination of a Hezbollah commander,” adding that “Israel has the right to act if Hezbollah tries to revive its activity in southern Lebanon.”

These signals aligned with reporting by the Israeli outlet Walla, which said security assessments indicated that “Tel Aviv’s patience is nearing its end,” and that Hezbollah’s rebuilding of its capabilities since late 2024 was unfolding “at a dangerous and rapid pace despite the assassinations and strikes it has faced.”

Return of the drones

Drones had been absent since Sunday, coinciding with the Pope’s arrival in Lebanon, with no Israeli drone activity recorded over Beirut, the southern suburbs or deep in southern Lebanon. Israeli movements were limited to gunfire near military positions and the firing of illumination flares along the border.

That lull did not last. On Tuesday afternoon, Israeli drones were seen flying over the eastern and western Lebanese mountain ranges toward Baalbek, while low-altitude flights were recorded over the southern towns of Adloun and Kfouriya al-Siyad.

Against this shifting backdrop, retired Brig.Gen. Khalil Helou offered a more detailed reading of the current calm and its limits.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the slowdown in Israeli attacks in recent days and the absence of drones “does not reflect a change in strategy, but what can be described as the calm before the storm.”

He said the pause was “directly linked to the Pope’s visit, because Israel understands that any major operation during the presence of a figure of this stature would reflect negatively on it in international media, especially Vatican media, which is already not sympathetic to Israel regarding Gaza and Middle East issues.”

Helou added that Israel “also faces domestic pressure in the United States, where protests on university campuses, political tensions in Washington and a rise in congressional criticism make it cautious about any military action that could spark additional controversy in a sensitive election moment.”

He said Israel’s already strained ties with Europe were another reason for suspending major operations for now.

Israel’s objectives

He stressed that “the geostrategic reality has not changed at all,” and that Israel’s goal “remains dismantling Hezbollah’s infrastructure.”

He said Israeli officials believe Resolution 1701 failed to disarm the group in 2006, that the revived understandings collapsed again in 2023 and that Hezbollah “remains capable of reorganizing its ranks.”

He criticized Hezbollah’s statement about resorting to clandestine operations, saying that “announcing an activity that is supposed to be secret is contradictory, and it is used by Israel to justify future strikes.”

He added that international confidence in the Lebanese state’s ability to take clear decisions has sharply eroded, citing the government’s August decision to restrict weapons to state institutions, its reversal a month later and the current shift toward “controlling weapons rather than removing them.”

He said such rhetoric “may serve domestic consumption but does not convince external actors who cannot wait years for Lebanon’s traditional approach to resolve the issue.”

Helou said some believe Israel is not serious and that the situation will pass as before, “but I do not share this view.” In earlier stages, he noted, Europe and the United States played direct roles in restraining Israel. “Today, the circumstances are entirely different.”

He recalled that former United States president Joe Biden refused to expand the war into Lebanon in 2023 because of his negotiations with Iran, while “Trump, now in office, follows a different policy based on striking and escalating, then negotiating, not the other way around.”

Looking ahead, Helou said “the most likely scenario is an intensified Israeli air campaign that had already begun some time ago.”