Lebanon’s reconstruction and recovery needs following the recent conflict are estimated at $11 billion, according to the Lebanon Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) 2025 report released by the World Bank. The report assesses the damage, economic losses, and financial requirements across ten sectors nationwide, covering the period from October 8, 2023, to December 20, 2024.

Financial Breakdown of Recovery Needs

Of the total $11 billion required for reconstruction and recovery, the report estimates that $3 to $5 billion will need to be publicly financed. This includes $1 billion earmarked for the restoration of critical infrastructure sectors such as energy, municipal and public services, transport, and water, wastewater, and irrigation. The remaining $6 to $8 billion will require private sector financing, primarily to support housing, commerce, industry, and tourism.

Economic Impact of the Conflict

Beyond the immediate reconstruction costs, the economic toll of the conflict on Lebanon is estimated at $14 billion. This includes $6.8 billion in damage to physical structures and $7.2 billion in economic losses stemming from reduced productivity, lost revenues, and increased operational costs. The housing sector has been identified as the hardest hit, with damages estimated at $4.6 billion. The commerce, industry, and tourism sectors have also suffered significantly, registering combined losses of $3.4 billion nationwide. Geographically, the Nabatiyeh and South governorates have been the most affected, followed by Mount Lebanon, including Beirut’s southern suburb.

Macroeconomic Consequences

The conflict has severely impacted Lebanon’s economy, causing a 7.1% contraction in real GDP in 2024. This decline marks a stark contrast to the projected 0.9% growth had the conflict not occurred. By the end of 2024, Lebanon’s cumulative GDP contraction since 2019 will have approached 40%, further exacerbating the country's prolonged economic downturn and limiting prospects for future growth.

Methodology and Collaborative Effort

The RDNA was conducted in response to a formal request from the Government of Lebanon to evaluate the impact across ten key sectors: Agriculture and Food Security; Commerce, Industry, and Tourism; Education; Environment and Debris Management; Energy; Health; Housing; Municipal and Public Services; Transport; and Water, Wastewater, and Irrigation. The assessment was carried out in close collaboration with the National Council for Scientific Research – Lebanon and coordinated with selected UN agencies and other development partners.

Following globally recognized post-disaster assessment methodologies developed by the European Union, the World Bank, and the United Nations, the RDNA employed a hybrid approach. This included a combination of ground surveys, key informant interviews, satellite imagery analysis, Synthetic Aperture Radar data, anonymized cellphone tracking, and social media analytics to provide a comprehensive and accurate evaluation of the conflict’s impact.