Beirut is witnessing an unusual wave of diplomatic activity reminiscent of the flurry that followed October 7, 2023, when international and Arab mediators rushed to prevent Hezbollah from being dragged into a devastating regional war. From U.S. envoy Morgan Ortagus to Egyptian intelligence chief Hassan Rashad, Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit, and an expected visit by Saudi envoy Prince Yazid bin Farhan, Lebanon has once again returned to the spotlight amid a tense race between diplomacy and the threat of military escalation.

Diplomatic sources in London, Paris, and Washington told Independent Arabia that Western and Arab officials are frustrated with the Lebanese government and President Joseph Aoun over what they described as “a dangerous slowdown” in implementing the plan to disarm non-state groups and launch long-delayed structural and sectoral reforms.

According to the sources, the Quintet Committee, comprising the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt, has tasked Cairo with following up on the file and easing tensions between Lebanon and Israel, possibly paving the way for indirect negotiations. The initiative seeks to revive the 1949 Armistice Agreement until broader regional developments, including the establishment of a Palestinian state, take shape.

While Western and Arab diplomats downplay talk of an imminent war, they caution that Israeli attacks could expand if Hezbollah continues to rebuild its military infrastructure and refuses to surrender its weapons. The sources said many capitals now view Hezbollah’s decisions as being dictated by Tehran rather than its local leadership, which is reportedly more inclined to focus on restoring political influence through elections and domestic engagement.

Although both the Presidential Palace and the Parliament Speaker’s office insisted that U.S. envoy Ortagus did not deliver threats, sources close to President Aoun and Speaker Nabih Berri confirmed that she presented intelligence reports showing Hezbollah’s continuing weapons buildup. According to the sources, Ortagus handed over Israeli documents proving that arms are still flowing to Hezbollah through Syria and pressed Lebanese leaders to act swiftly on their commitments.

Ortagus was quoted as telling Aoun, Berri, and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam that Israel has “no confidence” Lebanon will disarm Hezbollah or clear the area south of the Litani River of weapons and fighters. She said Israeli officials refuse to agree to a permanent ceasefire until they verify that southern villages are free of armed presence, noting that while the Lebanese Army “is doing its duty,” its efforts remain “insufficient” from Israel’s perspective.

In response, Aoun and Salam reportedly assured the envoy that the army “is fully carrying out its mission” and has already lost 12 soldiers in the process, but cannot complete its deployment due to ongoing Israeli occupation in parts of southern Lebanon. They called for a full Israeli withdrawal to allow the army to extend control up to the international border.

Diplomatic sources said discussions are now focused on reactivating the joint Mechanism Committee that monitors the cessation of hostilities, with the U.S. offering to expand and modernize its role. However, any such change would require the approval of both Lebanon and Israel.

Ortagus also encouraged Lebanon to engage in some form of negotiations, reflecting the broader regional shift toward diplomacy and normalization. She suggested options such as expanding Lebanon’s delegation to the ceasefire committee, creating multiple technical subcommittees, or raising the talks to a political level. The envoy reportedly advised Lebanese leaders to take advantage of U.S. President Donald Trump’s inclination toward “peace and deals, not war,” arguing that only Trump could pressure Israel into restraint.

Egyptian intelligence chief Hassan Rashad’s visit to Beirut, which followed a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, was described as “exploratory” but carried a tone of urgency. Sources said Rashad conveyed “worrying Israeli messages” that prompted President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to dispatch him to Lebanon to brief leaders on Israel’s intentions and explore ways to defuse tensions.

Rashad reportedly expressed Egypt’s willingness to play a mediating role similar to its involvement in the Gaza negotiations, telling Lebanese officials that Cairo is ready to help prevent escalation and maintain calm along the border. A senior Lebanese military source confirmed that Rashad encouraged Beirut to “capitalize on the Gaza momentum” and explore indirect negotiations through the “Mechanism” framework, possibly reinforced with technical experts. However, when asked about the likelihood of Israeli escalation, the Egyptian envoy “did not deny that the atmosphere is tense.”