Lebanon’s ministerial committee on Syrian displacement has finalized a phased plan to begin the repatriation of displaced Syriasns and is preparing to submit the proposal to the Cabinet for approval, Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Mitri confirmed.

The plan comes as the Lebanese government seeks to capitalize on recent developments in Syria, including the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Damascus announced by former President Donald Trump. Officials in Beirut believe the new context removes key obstacles to repatriation, particularly security-related concerns.

Despite a new influx of roughly 40,000 Syrians into northern Lebanon in March 2025, mostly fleeing Syria’s coastal regions, authorities argue the broader conditions that once made large-scale returns impossible are no longer valid.

Mitri, who heads the ministerial committee, told Asharq al-Awsat the return strategy is designed to unfold in multiple phases.

“The plan takes into account that a significant number of Syrians have already begun returning for a variety of reasons,” Mitri said, though he acknowledged there is no precise data on how many have returned to date.

According to Mitri, a recent UNHCR survey showed a large number of displaced Syrians are willing to return voluntarily.

“The Syrian administration, led by President Ahmad Al-Sharaa, has also expressed no objection to their return, although it has voiced concerns about living and housing conditions,” he said. “All of this makes voluntary, phased returns feasible.”

Mitri added that the first phase is set to begin before the start of the new academic year in early September, although the final number of returnees remains uncertain.

“We expect it could range from 200,000 to 300,000, depending on the success of the initial implementation.”

The plan outlines two types of returns: organized and unorganized.

In the organized format, refugees will register their names and be transported to Syria via buses. Each participant will receive $100 in financial assistance. Unorganized returnees, including those who arrange their own transportation, will also receive the same financial support.

Mitri emphasized that Lebanon’s General Security Directorate will waive all fines related to expired residency permits for those departing, under the condition that they do not return to Lebanon.

“The government has received pledges from donor agencies and foreign governments to support returnees once back in Syria, with the aim of preventing re-migration to Lebanon for economic reasons,” Mitri said, adding that “forced mass deportation is not under consideration.”

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Lebanon currently hosts approximately 1.4 million Syrians, including 717,657 officially registered refugees.

Since December 8, 2024, a total of 507,672 refugees have returned to Syria from neighboring countries, with 172,801 returning from Lebanon alone.

Many Lebanese political parties have long called for a shift in aid distribution, urging that financial assistance be redirected from refugees residing in Lebanon to those who repatriate voluntarily.

That argument has gained urgency amid funding cuts. The UNHCR recently informed Lebanon’s Health Ministry it will stop providing health support for Syrian refugees starting November 2025 due to a decline in donor contributions.

UNHCR spokesperson Lisa Abou Khaled said all hospitalization support will cease by the end of 2025, adding that “primary health care support has already been suspended, directly affecting 80,000 refugees.”

Cash assistance programs are also shrinking.

“Our ability to reach beneficiaries has dropped by 65 percent since January under the joint cash assistance program with the World Food Programme,” Abou Khaled said. “We were forced to suspend aid for 350,000 vulnerable individuals, and we still lack funding to support the remaining 200,000 beyond September.”

Education support is also on the chopping block. Abou Khaled revealed that aid for out-of-school refugee children, including literacy and numeracy programs, will end in July 2025. “This will directly affect about 15,000 children,” she said. “We are also facing difficult workforce cuts—reducing staff by 30 percent in 2025, meaning the loss of more than 150 vital personnel by year-end.”

400,000 Returnees Targeted in 2025

Despite challenges, the UNHCR sees a window of opportunity. “The current context presents a positive opening for the return of more Syrian refugees or at least for realistic and sustainable discussions about return,” said Abou Khaled.

However, she cautioned that “the humanitarian crisis in Syria remains severe, with millions still needing urgent aid—food, shelter, healthcare and more. Many refugees have expressed willingness to return, but remain hesitant due to uncertain short- and long-term conditions.”

Major concerns include access to education, livelihood opportunities, unresolved issues over housing and property, and the availability of humanitarian assistance upon return.

“This places a responsibility on the international community to step up support for recovery efforts inside Syria,” she said.

Abou Khaled revealed that the UNHCR and its humanitarian partners in Lebanon have developed a joint voluntary return action plan. The plan aims to assist approximately 400,000 Syrians, including 5,000 Palestinian refugees from Syria, return to their homeland in 2025, representing the most optimistic scenario. The plan includes logistical assistance, transport support, and help with official documentation required inside Syria.