Ali Larijani made clear in Beirut that Tehran expects Hezbollah’s arsenal to remain intact as Iran sees an increasing chance of a new war with Israel, political and security sources told The National.

The chief of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council's meetings in Beirut last week were followed by a visit from US envoys Tom Barrack and Morgan Ortagus to Lebanon on Monday, trying to gauge the consequences of Tehran’s message.

Larijani met Iraqi leaders in Baghdad before heading to Beirut, delivering a similar message to Tehran’s allies, the sources said.

“There is a single context for Larijani’s visits to Iraq and Lebanon: both countries, in his view, are facing direct US interventions aimed at imposing a security-political reality that serves American agendas in the region,” a political source in Beirut said.

“Iran after the war with Israel is not the same. Its view of its regional surroundings has shifted after Israel’s war reached inside its own territory in the way it did, combined with Syria’s earlier losses.

“These developments are forcing Tehran to adopt different regional calculations in confronting the Israeli threat. Larijani made it clear during his meetings that Iraq and Lebanon are not arenas of influence and interest where it can afford to retreat.”

A retired senior security official who still maintains close contact with Lebanon's military and security establishment said "Larijani’s visit was about sending a message to the Lebanese that Iran will not be silent on this critical issue".

"Iran is willing to mobilise its entire axis of resistance in Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon" to protect Hezbollah's arsenal, he added. "At this point, it's life or death for Iran."

Red line

Iran is lobbying to turn the Popular Mobilisation Forces into an Iraqi paramilitary, a move Washington openly opposes. In Lebanon, its message is that Hezbollah’s weapons are an Iranian "asset" that should be discussed with Tehran, the sources said.

Lebanon, after Iraq, has become the direct stage for a broader showdown between the US and Tehran. Washington pressured the Lebanese government into adopting the disarmament of Hezbollah as a formal decision, under the threat of intensified Israeli strikes if it does not do so.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is in a "difficult position", the security source said. The Lebanese leader has faced intense US pressure to disarm Hezbollah, but has received no promises that Israel will withdraw from the five points of Lebanese territory it occupies.

Less than two weeks ago, the cabinet narrowly approved a US-backed proposal after a heated session in which Shiite ministers stormed out. Hezbollah, Iran and their allies immediately condemned the move.

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said there would be “no life” for Lebanon if it moved to confront the group, and warned the government against surrendering to Israel by bowing to Washington’s demands. His most serious threat came after he met Larijani.

“Larijani, in the meetings in Beirut that came after the government vote, was eager to stress that Iran does not want to interfere in Lebanon’s internal affairs, but underlined that Hezbollah’s weapons remain a red line,” one official said. “His stance reflects Tehran’s belief that Hezbollah is the spearhead of its regional security apparatus, and that another war with Israel may be imminent, making concessions on Hezbollah inconceivable."

During the direct war between Israel and Iran, Hezbollah stayed on the sidelines and did not intervene. The group has suffered heavy blows from Israel, which killed several of its senior leaders and destroyed much of its arsenal. Despite this, Hezbollah, with its thousands of fighters, is still believed to possess strategic missiles and advanced weaponry.

Iranian challenge

Tehran established Hezbollah in the early 1980s as part of its drive to project influence beyond its borders after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and to create defensive lines across the region to keep any war away from its soil.

It has invested billions of dollars in arming the group, training its fighters and modernising its weapons cache, effectively turning Hezbollah into a quasi-army that has fought in a number of conflicts across the region, including in Syria.

Hezbollah’s late chief, Hassan Nasrallah, often stressed that it is difficult for anyone outside the group’s inner circle to grasp the depth of its relationship with Iran fully. His replacement, Qassem, is officially an envoy of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini.

“Another purpose of Larijani’s Beirut visit was to smooth ties with the Lebanese state, especially the President [Joseph Aoun] but also to clarify Iran’s position regarding Hezbollah’s disarmament,” one official said. “Israel is intent on stripping Lebanon of any means of defence, said Larijani, and this will only serve its goals in the next confrontation with Iran. That is precisely how Tehran views it.”

The chronically underfunded and under-equipped Lebanese army has little capacity to defend itself against Israeli attacks. "Israel and the US want to see the region's armies reduced to police forces, with little ability to attack or defend themselves from Israel," the security source said.

The warnings have been echoed publicly. On Sunday, Yahya Rahim Safavi, senior adviser to Khamenei, told Iranian media: "We are not in a ceasefire; we are in a stage of war. No protocol, regulation or agreement has been written between us and the US or Israel. I think another war may happen, and after that, there may be no more wars.”

According to the sources in Beirut,  Larijani's visit represented a “clear Iranian challenge” to the US, who align with Israel in applying pressure.

“Tehran is signalling it will not abandon its regional role,” one of the sources said. “Iran does not want to appear detached from Lebanese realities, but also does not wish to send ambiguous signals about the firmness of its regional position by showing any easy acceptance of Hezbollah’s disarmament.”