Lebanon is seeing a new chapter of emigration, spurred by a combination of war and economic hardship.

As hostilities between Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group, and Israel continue to escalate, the country’s battered economy is taking another hit, compelling many to seek stability and opportunity beyond its borders.

A recent survey by the Arab Barometer, a research group that tracks public sentiment in the Arab world, revealed that 38 percent of Lebanese expressed a desire to permanently leave the country.

The percentage matches levels recorded in 2022, yet it represents a 12-point increase from the 26 percent recorded in 2018.

The primary driver behind the migration trend is the dire economic situation. Seven out of ten Lebanese who wish to leave cite a bleak outlook, indicating a pervasive sense that no positive resolution to the economic crisis is forthcoming.

The second significant factor is the political and security tensions, particularly in the wake of the intensified conflict between Hezbollah and Israel.

The research was published in August, when the conflict was still characterized by limited cross-border attacks. However, it escalated into full-blown warfare in September, marked by heavy Israeli airstrikes that resulted in the deaths of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and most of the group’s senior officials and commanders.

Israeli ground forces pushed into southern Lebanon on October 1. Over the last year, the broadening Israeli campaign against Hezbollah has killed nearly 3,000 people in Lebanon and wounded 13,492, according to the Lebanese health ministry.

The offensive has devastated towns near the border and inflicted widespread destruction in neighborhoods within Beirut’s southern suburbs, known as Dahiyeh, as well as vast parts of the Beqaa Valley, leading to civilian casualties and damaged infrastructure.

Government estimates indicate that more than 1.2 million people in Lebanon have been displaced since Israel ramped up its attacks in the country in mid-September.

Hezbollah’s intensified rocket attacks on Israel have forced 60,000 Israelis to evacuate from communities near the border. More than a year into the war, they remain displaced.

A country in freefall

Lebanon’s economic breakdown, which began in 2019, has spiraled into one of the worst financial downturns in modern history.

Rooted in years of corruption and mismanagement, the crisis triggered hyperinflation, a currency collapse, and acute shortages in basic goods and services. The situation worsened through the COVID-19 pandemic and the Beirut port explosion in August 2020.

Poverty in Lebanon has more than tripled over the past decade reaching 44 percent of the total population, according to a May World Bank report.

Meanwhile, political deadlock and stalled reforms have crippled any prospect of securing international aid. The country has been without an economic recovery plan since 2019 and remains leaderless, with the presidency vacant since October 2022 when former President Michel Aoun’s term ended.

The descent was culminated by the ongoing war between Hezbollah and Israel, which has deepened Lebanon’s economic and social instability, pushing more citizens to consider emigration as their only option.

The Arab Barometer research mentions that 27 percent of Lebanese are considering emigration in 2024, a 14-point jump from 2022, as they seek stability beyond a country beset by an unyielding cycle of crisis.

Lebanese musician Elias Farah, 26, relocated to Saudi Arabia in July, driven by the prospect of a better tomorrow.
“I don’t see a future there. You live day by day and can’t plan,” said Farah. “When a good opportunity abroad came along, I took it – for myself and for the family I hope to have.”

Economic fallout: Loss of talent and workforce

The desire to emigrate from Lebanon is not new; the nation has seen waves of emigration during previous conflicts. Yet, this time the exodus is coupled with one of the worst economic crises in its history, leaving experts concerned about the impact on the already strained economy.

“The inclination to emigrate will likely exacerbate the country’s economic challenges by accelerating the loss of human capital,” Leila Dagher, assistant to the president for public policy and associate professor of economics at the Lebanese American University, told Al Arabiya English.

“A 2022 survey showed that 74 percent of respondents were willing to emigrate for salaries below $4,000 per month, reflecting a willingness to leave for better living conditions. As circumstances continue to deteriorate, potential emigrants may increasingly accept lower wages abroad, diminishing the typical economic cushion provided by remittances.”

Remittance receipts represent about 31 percent of Lebanon’s GDP and account for more than 80 percent of total external resource flows, per the World Bank’s June Migration and Development Brief.

Yet, while Lebanon’s financial sector has long benefitted from remittances, analysts warn that these inflows may not sufficiently counterbalance the losses resulting from a shrinking workforce.

“Lebanon’s GDP has contracted substantially, not only due to the currency depreciation but also because of the massive outflow of talent,” said Lebanese economist Roy Badaro. “While remittances could provide some short-term relief, they cannot replace the human capital lost through emigration, which will ultimately undermine long-term growth prospects.”

“The sharp decline in new births, from approximately 90,000 to 60,000, combined with emigration, has contributed to a real-term GDP decline of as much as 30 percent, further complicating the nation’s economic recovery and stability,” Badaro told Al Arabiya English.

Paula Habchi, a 48-year-old mother of two, resigned from her job last month and emigrated to the United States to join her daughters. She previously worked in the beauty and cosmetics industry as a luxury division manager.

“My eldest daughter, now 22, didn’t originally plan to leave. But as one crisis followed another, especially after the 2020 Beirut port explosion, she changed her mind and chose to pursue her education in the US,” said Habchi. Her younger daughter, 19, soon joined her. “With Lebanon now facing war, I realized it was time to leave everything behind and be with them.”

For Habchi, leaving Lebanon wasn’t a choice she made lightly. “All of our memories, our entire lives, are back there, but we feel there’s little hope for change,” she said. “For the younger generation, there’s almost no reason to go back – not even for a visit, since most of their friends have already left.”

Badaro noted that the migration of the working class has a direct impact on the labor market, especially as experienced workers leave, disrupting productivity across various sectors. “This exodus will also strain Lebanon’s social security pension fund, as fewer younger workers will be available to support an aging population.”

“Lebanon is losing a generation of physicians, professionals, and young talent. This ‘brain drain’ undermines innovation, productivity, and overall economic resilience. Without substantial domestic opportunities, this trend could weaken the country’s economic foundation and foster a cycle of dependency on remittances from a diminishing pool of lower-income emigrants,” explained Dagher.