Lebanon's Economy in Freefall Amid Deepening Crisis, Economic Bodies Warn

Former minister and president of economic bodies, Mohammad Choukair, warned that Lebanon's economy is "rapidly plunging to the depths of the abyss,” emphasizing that the current situation portends imminent disasters on various levels, particularly in economic and social spheres.

In a statement issued on Thursday, Choukair noted that his warning was based on realistic indicators developed by the economic bodies in collaboration with officials from various economic sectors. He cautioned that this unprecedented situation threatens the collapse of an already “exhausted” nation grappling with severe and multifaceted crises.

Choukair urged immediate action, citing the pressing humanitarian need stemming from the mass displacement of individuals fleeing conflict-stricken areas.

“It is imperative to immediately stop the war, initiate the constitutional process by electing a president for the republic, implement Resolution 1701, and restore the Lebanese state as a whole,” Choukair stated, declaring that “the salvation of Lebanon lies in this path, which has no alternative.”

Choukair detailed several key economic indicators that illustrate the severity of the crisis:

  • Commercial Sector: Demand for food, cleaning, and disinfecting products remains high. However, other goods and luxury items have seen a significant decline in demand, dropping between 80 and 90 percent.
  • Industrial Sector: The industrial sector has been negatively affected by the prevailing state of war in the country, with around 30 percent of factories ceasing operations due to their locations in hot zones. Additionally, there has been a significant decline in domestic market demand as well as a halt in new contracts for exports. Overall, the industrial sector's activity is estimated to have declined by about 50 percent in recent times. All industries, except for food, pharmaceuticals, and cleaning products, have experienced a significant drop of up to 90 percent.

  • Restaurant Sector: The sector has contracted severely, with activity plummeting by more than 90 percent, leading to the closure of hundreds of establishments.

  • Hotel Sector: A considerable decline has been recorded, with current occupancy rates estimated between 5 and 10 percent at most, while some hotels are entirely vacant.

  • Car Rental Sector: This sector has reported a staggering decline exceeding 90 percent.

  • Events, Exhibitions, and Conferences Sector: This sector has witnessed the cancellation of all reservations for various events, bringing its operational rate down to nearly zero.

  • Nightlife Sector: This industry is completely paralyzed, experiencing a 100 percent drop in activity.

  • Agricultural Sector: Agricultural activity has decreased by more than 40 percent, with a significant risk of losing many essential crops.

  • Insurance Sector: Like other sectors, insurance has contracted, particularly regarding cargo insurance policies (import and export). Additionally, customers have stopped paying premiums to companies as people prioritize preserving liquidity amidst the crisis.

  • Travel Movement via Rafik Hariri International Airport: Arrivals have decreased by 90 percent, while departures have also dropped by 60 percent.

  • Port of Beirut: The port has maintained its operational activity compared to the same period last year, but it has recorded a decline of about 30 percent relative to the expected figures for this period.

Choukair, therefore, highlighted that the total direct losses incurred by Lebanon due to Israeli aggression are estimated between $10 and $12 billion. These losses encompass various economic sectors and damages to homes, buildings, and varous infrastructure.

In closing, Choukair launched an urgent appeal to all political forces and officials, urging them to embrace their national and historical responsibilities, set aside differences, and collaborate with open hearts and minds to take all necessary measures to prevent the collapse of Lebanon.