The standoff over how expatriates will vote in the next legislative elections is intensifying.

On one side are those advocating for a proper amendment to the current electoral law, allowing diaspora voters to cast their ballots from abroad in the districts where they are registered in Lebanon.

On the other side are those pushing for the implementation of provisions in the law that call for the creation of six new electoral districts specifically for expatriates.

The latter was passed in 2017’s electoral law. Since then, two legislative elections have been held, in 2018 and 2022. In both cases, the formula of voting in the districts of origin in Lebanon was applied by default, simply because the six new districts — meant to be distributed across different continents — had not yet been established.

These districts are meant to account for a total of six seats, divided as follows: one Maronite, one Greek Orthodox, one Greek Catholic, one Sunni, one Shiite and one Druze.

Ahead of the elections scheduled for spring 2026, the camp in favor of creating the six districts — made up primarily of the Free Patriotic Movement and the Hezbollah-Amal alliance — hopes to see them established in time for the diaspora to vote under this framework.

On the other side, a draft law classified as double-urgent was recently submitted to amend the existing law and formalize the exceptional arrangement adopted in the last two elections.

Last week, 68 members of Parliament — a clear majority of the chamber, including MPs from the Lebanese Forces, Kataeb, Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), Change movement, moderate Sunnis, Michel Moawad, Tashnag and independents — signed a petition addressed to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, urging him to place the draft law on the agenda of the plenary session scheduled for Monday.

Berri did not agree to the request, prompting a large portion of the 68 MPs to walk out of the chamber during the session, though their departure did not lead to a loss of quorum.

How did we get here? To understand the stakes of this emerging battle, one must first look back at the results of the diaspora vote in the 2022 legislative elections.

At the time, around 130,000 expatriates cast their ballots out of a total of just over 200,000 who had registered at Lebanese consulates and embassies abroad. As all analysts agree, the impact of their vote was decisive in shaping the overall outcome of the election, contributing to the loss by Hezbollah’s camp of its outgoing majority and, in particular, to the significant decline of Gebran Bassil’s FPM.

On the other side, the Lebanese Forces became the largest bloc in Parliament, other anti-Hezbollah opposition groups made gains, and the protest movement secured 12 seats (after one was later invalidated), benefiting as well from the fragmentation of the Sunni political scene following Saad Hariri’s withdrawal.

At this stage, it is clear that, aware of their declining influence, the FPM on one side and the Hezbollah-Amal duo on the other — even if they are no longer formal allies — are doing everything they can to contain the damage ahead of 2026. To that end, they need to confine the diaspora to the six designated seats, rather than allow it to influence the full 128 seats in Lebanon.

Let us not forget that, encouraged by the 2022 results, tens of thousands of expatriates who did not register that year may be tempted to take part in the next vote. The number of voters could then rise well beyond 130,000, reaching 230,000 or even 300,000, with a likely impact on the makeup of the next Parliament that is easy to imagine.

Each side in this debate has the right to defend its position. Both options are legally valid. However, one is conservative, timid, inconsistent and, above all, unjust, while the other represents a strengthening of parliamentary democracy and of the role of expatriates in shaping the future of what remains their country.

One of the arguments made by those in favor of the six dedicated seats draws a comparison with France. It is true that there are 11 constituencies for French citizens abroad, but that does not mean every French expatriate is required to vote in them. Voters abroad can still cast their ballots in their original districts in France without having to travel there through proxy voting.

Moreover, the creation of these overseas constituencies is justified by the presence of many dual nationals who, in turn, are better positioned to make their voices — and their differences — heard.

The context in Lebanon is very different, where there is a striking gap between the soothing rhetoric about involving the diaspora in national affairs and the deep fear it inspires among certain factions. 

During his term as foreign minister, Bassil spent most of his time building influence networks within the diaspora. The results may not have been conclusive in terms of numbers, as his current message to the diaspora seems to be: stay home, and everyone will be better off.

As for Hezbollah, it puts forward the argument that its candidates running in Lebanon would be unable to campaign in certain countries where the party is under sanctions, such as the United States or Germany, both home to a significant number of Shiite communities.

Taking such a pretext seriously is like claiming areas in Lebanon are models of Swiss-style democratic voting. In reality, it is not about campaigning for the party's candidates, but rather about securing zones in which the primary aim is to prevent others from campaigning, by any means necessary.

And that, precisely, is what the Hezbollah-Amal duo is unable to do beyond Lebanon’s borders. The same forces that oppose the idea of mega-voting centers located more than 50 kilometers from voters’ registration areas — because they cannot easily control them — are unlikely to accept that their political fate will be determined 5,000 kilometers away.

These expatriate Lebanese, many of them young people driven into exile under the harshest conditions to survive, build a future and support their families back home, are now being told to remain silent, to have no influence on domestic affairs, to not even crack open the wall surrounding a political space ruled by clientelism. So let’s give them six seats, let them play with those, and leave us in peace; that is the new injustice some are planning for this country.