Since May 1, 2025, more than 440,000 Syrian nationals have left Lebanon, marking a significant shift in the country’s approach to the longstanding refugee crisis.

While the figure is striking, officials say the real story lies in what it represents: a turning point in Lebanon’s political stance and operational policy toward the presence of Syrian refugees.

In recent months, the context surrounding the refugee issue has undergone considerable change.

With the fall of the Syrian regime and growing international momentum to ease sanctions, the original justifications for asylum—political persecution and security threats—have largely diminished.

At the same time, the United Nations has scaled back its assistance programs, leaving many Syrians in Lebanon without international aid. Lebanese officials now argue that the crisis has shifted from a humanitarian emergency to one of economic migration.

On July 1, a ministerial committee led by Minister Tarek Mitri launched Lebanon’s first official plan for the organized return of Syrian refugees. So far, over 17,000 individuals have registered for repatriation. The initiative enjoys rare, unified political backing—free of the usual partisan gridlock—and has been endorsed by the Lebanese presidency, cabinet, and security institutions.

A key component of the plan is a new initiative by Lebanon’s General Security Directorate, which offers sweeping legal exemptions for undocumented Syrians who voluntarily depart by the end of September 2025, with the option to extend the deadline through year-end. Those who leave within this window will not face fines or re-entry bans. In contrast, Syrians who remain in Lebanon illegally could face arrest.

The plan also rejects a previous UNHCR proposal known as “Go and See,” which would have allowed refugees to visit Syria temporarily and return to Lebanon if they found conditions unlivable. General Security chief Major General Hassan Choucair dismissed the idea, noting that many refugees currently receive international aid—financial assistance, healthcare, and education—which would discourage them from staying in Syria after such visits.

LBCI has learned that some Syrians are already residing in Syria but return to Lebanon at the beginning of each month to collect aid before heading back. To curb such practices, the Lebanese government, in coordination with the UNHCR, has developed a national refugee database. It identifies nearly two million Syrians currently in the country, including both registered and unregistered individuals.

Once a refugee leaves Lebanon, their profile will be removed from the system. If they return, they will no longer be eligible for international assistance.

In another major shift, even European countries now support the return of Syrian refugees. According to LBCI sources, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, Frontex, has held meetings with Lebanese General Security over the increasing number of smuggling boats carrying Syrian refugees from Lebanon to Europe via the Mediterranean.

Lebanese authorities say they are now determined to close the refugee file once and for all. The final deadline for voluntary returns has been set for December 31, 2025.

Still, the effort faces logistical challenges, particularly a shortage of detention facilities, which limits the government’s ability to detain undocumented Syrians who refuse to leave.

Despite continued instability in parts of Syria and fresh waves of refugees attempting to enter Lebanon, the state’s position appears firm.

The longstanding political divide over the refugee issue—which for years paralyzed decision-making—has ended. Syrian refugees in Lebanon are now seen as either welcomed guests preparing to return home or violators accountable for choosing to stay.