For weeks, Israelis anxiously awaited Hezbollah’s response to the assassination of its senior commander in Beirut, fearing that a cross-border conflict could ignite a full-scale regional war.

Last month, the situation intensified when a deadly rocket attack from Lebanon targeted Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, for which the Iran-backed militant group denied responsibility. Israel’s subsequent retaliatory strike killed Hezbollah’s top commander, Fuad Shukr, in southern Beirut.

In response, Hezbollah threatened retaliation, prompting widespread flight cancellations, government advisories urging citizens to leave Lebanon and Israel and a frantic diplomatic push to prevent an escalation.

On Sunday, Hezbollah said it had delivered its anticipated reprisal. The armed group launched hundreds of drones and Katyusha rockets at Israel, marking one of the most significant clashes in over ten months of tensions, which began in parallel with the war in Gaza.

Israel’s military countered with around 100 airstrikes, aiming to thwart a larger attack. As missiles arced through the dawn sky and explosions illuminated the horizon, the threat of a larger regional conflagration loomed.

Israel and Hezbollah each claimed a form of victory after the clashes. Israel touted its early morning preemptive strikes as a success. In contrast, Hezbollah boasted about its subsequent rocket and drone assaults on northern Israel, which according to Israeli officials resulted in the death of a naval officer. In Lebanon, three fighters were killed.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah claimed that his group’s rockets and drones primarily targeted an intelligence facility near Tel Aviv. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu countered that all drones aimed at a key location in central Israel were intercepted.

By the morning, both parties shifted to discussions of containment. While they indicated they were happy to avoid further escalation for now, they cautioned that additional strikes could still occur.

Nasrallah said the group would assess the impact of its strikes and reserved the right to take further action if necessary. His remarks were made during a televised address approximately 12 hours after the intense exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah.

Israel’s foreign minister said the country did not seek a total war, but Netanyahu warned: “This is not the end of the story.”

Escalation as de-escalation?

Analysts argue that the major escalation on Sunday paradoxically serves as a de-escalatory measure by temporarily removing the threat of a much larger regional war.

US Air Force General C.Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Reuters on Monday that the near-term risk of a broader war in the Middle East had eased somewhat.

“The Israeli Air Force’s pre-emptive strike on Hezbollah missile launchers and firing positions, combined with Hezbollah’s inability to hit any strategically significant Israeli military or intelligence facilities, has essentially returned the two opposing sides to the status quo of a ‘low-intensity’ conflict short of an all-out war,” Oubai Shahbandar, American defense analyst and former Middle East policy advisor to the Pentagon, told Al Arabiya English.

“Moreover, the presence of two American aircraft carrier strike groups in the region, along with Israel’s stern warnings to Iran and Hezbollah that any missile strikes crossing a red line would be met with overwhelming force, appears to have conveyed the necessary message to Hezbollah’s leadership.”

Following attacks by Hezbollah, Iran said that Israel had lost its power to deter and that the strategic balance in the region had shifted against it.

“Despite the comprehensive support of states like the US, Israel could not predict the time and place of a limited and managed response by the resistance. Israel has lost its deterrence power,” Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani wrote on X.

Neil Quilliam, associate fellow with the Middle East and North Africa Program at the UK-based Chatham House think tank, noted that Israel crossed a red line with the assassination of Shukr, leaving Hezbollah with little choice but to strike back.

“The response had less to do with deterrence and more with fulfilling an obligation to avenge,” he explained.

Israel and Hezbollah have been engaged in near-daily cross-border exchanges of fire since the war in the Gaza Strip began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas gunmen stormed into Israeli communities, killing around 1,200 people and abducting about 250 hostages, according to Israeli figures. Over 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since Israel launched its retaliatory attacks on the besieged strip, according to the health ministry in Gaza.

If a ceasefire is reached in Gaza, Hezbollah is expected to halt its daily attacks, as Nasrallah previously indicated. However, the group remains committed to maintaining a threatening presence at the border as part of its long-term deterrence strategy.

Hezbollah knows that Israel won’t tolerate this situation indefinitely, especially after October 7.

Firas Maksad, adjunct professor at George Washington University and senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, noted that Hezbollah’s determination to keep Lebanon as a secondary front while Israel shifts its military focus from Gaza to Lebanon comes at the expense of its established deterrence.

“As Israel continues to target and eliminate Hezbollah commanders and strikes arms depots further north, the group is essentially fighting with one hand tied behind its back,” Maksad told Al Arabiya English.

All eyes on Iran

Iran still has an unsettled score with Israel. It accuses Israel of the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of its ally Hamas, who was killed in Tehran just hours after Shukr’s death. Although Israel officially claimed responsibility for Shukr’s killing, it has not acknowledged any involvement in Haniyeh’s death. Nearly a month has passed without any retaliation from Iran.

Nevertheless, US officials and experts believe that Iran and its proxies are still poised to respond against Israel, with the conflict’s contours hinging on Iran’s next move.

“Iran will undoubtedly seek revenge for Haniyeh’s killing in Tehran, but its response will be carefully measured to prevent provoking a broader war,” noted Quilliam. “However, the risk lies in miscalculation – either side could misjudge the other’s threshold for pain, leading to unintended escalation.”

Iran is aware that a direct military confrontation with Israel would likely draw in the United States, a scenario Tehran is keen to eschew. Thus, Iran prefers to engage through proxies.

Iran also understands that Netanyahu may have set a trap with the recent assassinations, one that could be sidestepped through a Gaza truce deal.

Escalation dominance

Despite diplomatic efforts by the US, Egypt and Qatar, peace talks to end the war in Gaza are moving at a snail’s pace. High-level discussions in Cairo concluded on Sunday, shifting to lower-level technical negotiations. While the US remains optimistic, there are no signs of an imminent breakthrough.

Tehran appears focused on avoiding actions that could jeopardize ongoing negotiations.

Hezbollah had promised to respond to any Israeli attack in Beirut by targeting Israel’s major cities. However, whether by choice or because of Israel’s reported pre-emptive strikes, it ultimately did not follow through on that threat.

“The much referenced rules of engagement set after the 2006 war have become virtually unrecognizable, with Israel increasingly pushing boundaries and asserting escalation dominance – demonstrating a greater willingness to risk a broader conflict than Hezbollah, and even Iran,” said Maksad.

Both Iran and Hezbollah have signaled a reluctance to escalate the conflict further at this juncture, despite feeling pressured to respond to Israel’s repeated strikes on their leaders, weapons depots and other assets.

“Hezbollah backed down, this round. But the long-term viability of Israel’s strategy remains uncertain, especially considering the evacuation of over 100,000 Israelis from towns along the northern frontier,” said Shahbandar.