For decades, observers have said that, in the Middle East, change moves at a snail’s pace. That assumption no longer holds. Just look at the dramatic transformations unfolding across Lebanon, Syria, and Iran in recent weeks and months.

One year ago, Lebanon was at war with Israel. Few could have predicted the ceasefire that came into force last November—an event followed by the election of two widely respected leaders: President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. Together, they have formed a reform-oriented, technocratic government that has revived hope among Lebanese citizens for a brighter, more stable future.

In Syria, the world was stunned by the sudden fall of the Assad regime and the meteoric rise of Ahmad Sharaa—a former Islamist militant rebel commander turned reformist head of state. Sharaa is now rapidly steering Syria toward normalization with Israel and reintegration with the region.

Meanwhile in Iran, the regime has suffered devastating military setbacks, its intelligence apparatus in ruins, and the nation facing a precarious future. Iran’s weakening has diminished its influence in the region further hobbling Hezbollah which has long obstructed the country’s sovereignty and its reform efforts.

Lebanon should be the biggest beneficiary of these seismic regional shifts. Decades of war and conflict, economic collapse, systemic corruption, and the overpowering shadow of Hezbollah have brought Lebanon to its knees. But the tide may finally be turning.

Hezbollah has been substantially debilitated, and with Iran on the defensive, the group’s capacity to disrupt Lebanese politics has diminished. Lebanon’s new government now has both the political authority and capacity to seize a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to rebuild, reform, and reimagine the country's future.

Time, however, is not on Lebanon’s side.

Syria is taking promising steps towards rehabilitation, reform, and peace. As a result, it is capturing the attention—and investment—of the US, Israel, and Gulf states, all of which are eager to stabilize the region. Syria is even hinting at joining the Abraham Accords by the summer. At the same time, the Gulf nations are moving decisively to support post-war rebuilding in both Syria and Gaza, funneling billions of dollars into these fast-moving environments.

Lebanon, by contrast, risks being left behind. The slower it moves on reform and disarmament, the less it will feature in the priorities of Western and Gulf partners—and the less access it will have to desperately needed international aid.

Recognizing Lebanon’s fragile position, President Donald Trump has expressed a rare and timely interest in the country, mentioning it favorably on two occasions this past month. He has dispatched one of his closest Middle East advisors, Ambassador Tom Barrack—who also serves as US Ambassador to Türkiye and Special Envoy to Syria—with a serious proposal.

That proposal includes steps for completing the disarmament of all militias, including Hezbollah, demarcating borders between Lebanon, Syria, and Israel, and securing guarantees of Israeli withdrawal from disputed Lebanese territory.

Such steps will hopefully lead to peaceful relations with its neighbors. It also underscores the urgency of implementing key economic reforms designed to create the conditions for long-term stability, peace, and prosperity. These steps will open the door for international investment to rebuilding this war-torn nation.

But President Trump is famously impatient. If he senses hesitance or delay from Beirut, he may well redirect US engagement toward faster-moving arenas—namely Syria, Israel, and the Gulf—where American strategic interests are being more clearly advanced. This would further marginalize Lebanon in an increasingly competitive environment for reconstruction funding and geopolitical attention.

The stakes couldn’t be higher. As Syria and Israel normalize ties, they may also begin cooperating on mutual border security, excluding Lebanon input in the process. Lebanon risks becoming a buffer zone—or worse, a battleground—if it doesn’t quickly define its own sovereign path forward.

The region is changing fast. This is a rare opportunity for Lebanon to sustain international support in rebuilding its war-torn nation, creating a strong army that can uphold Lebanon’s sovereignty and ensuring a country at peace with its neighbors. If Beirut wants to be part of that future it must recognize the urgency of Barrack’s proposal. The clock is ticking, but the choice is Lebanon’s: seize this moment or be left behind.

Edward Gabriel is Former US Ambassador to Morocco and currently the President of the American Task Force on Lebanon