In Lebanon, it is enough for the price of a barrel of oil to rise, or for the name of the Strait of Hormuz to appear in the news, for anxiety to begin in markets, gas stations, and household ledgers.

While the world views the Strait of Hormuz as a vital artery for global energy, Lebanese people see its closure as a potential gateway to a new wave of price increases that could affect everything: gasoline, electricity, food, and even the ability to endure.

The name “Hormuz” returned to the forefront after Tehran announced, on March 2, that it was closing it in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes targeting it. Then, on April 12, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Washington would begin imposing a naval blockade on the strait, accusing Iran of failing to fulfill commitments related to reopening it, following stalled talks between the American and Iranian sides in Islamabad.

Although the confrontation appears geographically distant, its economic repercussions quickly reached Lebanon, which is suffering from one of the worst economic crises in the world—heightening public fears of new living pressures.

The World’s Artery Chokes Lebanon

Around 20 percent of global seaborne oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz, along with massive quantities of liquefied natural gas and raw materials used in industry and agriculture.

Any disruption in this passage does not only mean higher energy prices. According to economist Professor Jassem Ajaka, it triggers a chain of consequences: increased shipping costs, higher marine insurance rates, disrupted supply chains, and then a spillover into the prices of basic goods.

In a country that imports most of its needs, Lebanon becomes one of the most affected by any disturbance in this vital artery of global trade.

Ajaka told Alhurra that “fragile economies will be the most affected, foremost among them Lebanon, where there are no financial margins or sufficient reserves to absorb shocks.”

He warned that Lebanon “will quickly enter a wave of imported inflation, with citizens as its weakest link.”

Two Bills… and a Third Shock

In most countries, citizens complain about a single electricity bill. In Lebanon, people pay two: one to Electricité du Liban, and another to private generators that have become the main source of energy amid chronic power outages.

With every increase in diesel prices, the burden on Lebanese households multiplies rapidly.

Abdo Saadeh, head of the association of private generator owners, says the sector has already begun to feel the effects of recent tensions, with rising prices for diesel, oil, filters, and spare parts.

He explains that the price of a ton of diesel rose from about $700 to nearly $1,400 in a short period, meaning operating costs have doubled. This will be reflected in citizens’ subscriptions at the beginning of next month, after bills rose by about 35 percent last month.

This comes as Lebanon’s electricity sector has drained about $40 billion of public debt without managing to provide more than four hours of electricity per day, due to decades of political patronage, waste, mismanagement, and stalled reform and production projects, according to politicians and observers.

The sector that has effectively replaced the state complains, according to Saadeh, of “a lack of official coordination and pricing set by the energy minister that does not reflect real operating costs.”

Saadeh told Alhurra that “generator owners are not demanding tariff increases, but rather that the actual cost of operation be calculated in the official pricing,” adding that “generator owners do not earn a single cent even if the tariff appears high.”

Months ago, the association proposed during a meeting at the Ministry of Economy to secure diesel at the same price the state pays, “but it was not pursued despite promises to follow up.”

He notes that a number of subscribers have stopped their subscriptions or reduced their amperage, while some generator owners have reduced operating hours.

This simply means more darkness.

Is There a Fuel Crisis?

On the other hand, the picture appears less bleak regarding fuel availability, at least in the short term.

According to information obtained by Alhurra, the Ministry of Energy and Water considers the situation still stable as long as the sea remains open and supplies continue. In the event of a crisis, priority will be given to hospitals, bakeries, and vital sectors.

The information indicates that the fuel pricing mechanism in place for years is still in effect, and that claims of the minister not responding to stakeholders are inaccurate.

But these reassurances do not dispel many people’s fears.

Georges Brax, head of the syndicate of fuel station owners in Lebanon, confirms that Lebanon does not import gasoline and diesel directly from Gulf countries, but rather from Mediterranean countries such as Italy, Turkey, and Greece.

Brax told Alhurra that current reserves are sufficient for weeks, pointing to three levels of storage in Lebanon:

• The first is the storage tanks of importing companies, holding between 100 and 110 million liters—enough for about three weeks of market demand.
• The second is station tanks across the country, numbering about 3,500 stations, containing between 60 and 70 million liters.
• The third is the fuel stored in citizens’ cars. With about 1.8 million vehicles, each carrying roughly 25 liters, this provides around 45 million additional liters—equivalent to about one and a half tanker shipments.

He adds that fuel consumption has declined by about 25 percent due to security conditions and reduced mobility, while ships continue to arrive regularly at a rate of one or two per week, allowing continuous replenishment.

But the issue is not just availability, it is price.

Global markets react immediately to any threat to the Strait of Hormuz, and any escalation or expansion of the confrontation could push prices higher, quickly affecting Lebanon.

A Harsh Equation

If fuel prices rise, the cost of nearly everything rises with them.

Hani Bahsali, head of the syndicate of food importers in Lebanon, confirms that “any blockade of the Strait of Hormuz does not directly affect the arrival of food to Lebanon, because imports come through multiple routes and shipping lines.”

He explained that goods from the Far East arrive via the Red Sea, from Europe via the Mediterranean, from the United States via the Atlantic to the Mediterranean, in addition to imports from Africa. He noted that food stocks in Lebanon are currently sufficient, confirming there is no supply problem at present.

However, Ajaka explains that the impact is direct through increased costs of maritime transport, shipping, insurance, and energy, which are reflected in food prices.

In a country where a large portion of the population depends on daily income or fixed salaries in Lebanese pounds, any additional price increase becomes another blow to households.

Ajaka warns that Lebanese people may once again find themselves facing a harsh equation: reduce consumption, forgo some basic needs, or go into debt to survive.

Chronic Fragility

Since 2019, Lebanese citizens have lost a large part of their purchasing power, savings have eroded, and poverty rates have risen, while the economy remains without a comprehensive recovery plan.

In this context, any external shock becomes more painful.

Ajaka believes the best step Lebanese people have taken in recent years “was expanding the use of solar energy, as it partially reduced reliance on generators and fuel.”

But this shift, despite its importance, is not enough to face a broad energy price crisis or prolonged supply disruption. The country still depends, according to Ajaka, “on imports for food, medicine, and fuel, and suffers from fragile infrastructure, a weak transport system, and public institutions burdened by deficits.”

In this way, Lebanon pays the price in different forms: the gas cylinder, the generator bill, the price of bread, and the family’s ability to buy medicine.

Lebanon is not a direct party to the “Hormuz” crisis, but it is among those most affected by it.