The assassination of Haitham Ali al-Tabatabai, Hezbollah’s top military commander, deep in Beirut’s southern suburbs has triggered a dramatic reshuffling of Lebanon’s security landscape and opened what analysts describe as one of the most precarious moments in the group’s history.

Hours after the strike, the Israeli research center Alma released an updated chart mapping Hezbollah’s leadership structure. The graphic featured top political figures, including parliamentary bloc chief Mohammad Raad, Political Council head Ibrahim Amin al-Sayyed and Shura Council judge Mohammad Yazbek, alongside senior military and security commanders.

Though not an official Israeli statement, the inclusion of political leaders signaled a noticeable evolution in Israel’s rhetoric. For years, Israeli operations focused on Hezbollah’s “Jihad Council,” the group’s military command. Alma’s publication suggests a new approach: presenting political leaders as part of the military decision-making core, a shift that could push the confrontation beyond the battlefield and into Hezbollah’s highest organizational tiers.

Political analyst Ali al-Amin told Asharq Al-Aawsat newspaper that the implications of Alma’s release extend far beyond information warfare.

“In this climate of open conflict, any image or signal cannot be separated from the ongoing war,” he said. “We are witnessing direct targeting of Hezbollah’s first tier. With Tabatabai’s assassination, the possibility of others being targeted — whether military or political — becomes very real.”

Al-Amin said the breach that enabled Israel to kill a figure of Tabatabai’s rank inside Hezbollah’s stronghold “reveals a level of Israeli access that allows it to reach anyone within the party’s structure.”

“For an entire year, no modern organization has endured daily strikes and assassinations without being able to respond,” he said. “This is unprecedented; a clear sign of severe weakness and exposure inside Hezbollah.”

He noted that Israel’s ability to kill Tabatabai and four of his associates without harming civilians highlights precise intelligence capabilities and intensifies pressure on Hezbollah’s leadership.

“Israel is proving it can target cadres and commanders at virtually no cost,” he added.

Al-Amin said the broader trajectory points to two possible scenarios: “Either this is part of a gradual ‘sell-off’ of Hezbollah’s security and military structure on an American negotiation table,” he said, “or Tehran wants a disaster in Lebanon to use as leverage against any looming threat it faces.”

He warned that a potential Israeli war on Lebanon could ultimately serve Iran’s interests “at a moment of Iranian weakness.”

“There is no real meaning today in talk of Hezbollah’s military recovery,” he said. “Its security and military architecture has been deeply damaged. Missiles and stockpiles do not create effective power when the leadership is exposed and Israel can penetrate every circle.”

“After Tabatabai’s assassination, nothing will resemble what came before. All scenarios are now open amid a complete strategic vacuum inside the party," he added. 

Retired Brig. Gen. Naji Malaeb told Asharq Al-Awsat that Hezbollah has effectively split into two groups since the ceasefire: a public-facing political class of MPs, ministers and officials; and a clandestine military wing that has abandoned technology and communications to quietly rebuild its structure.

He said Israel had previously been unable to reach Hezbollah’s senior ranks.

“Most of those killed over the past year were school principals, municipal employees, or local operatives with no real decision-making authority,” he said. “The party had relatively tightened its security, but it miscalculated its sense of safety inside the southern suburbs, and that’s what allowed this latest breach.”

Malaeb said Israel possesses extensive technical capabilities — satellites, drones and sustained surveillance — to track any target within its monitoring perimeter. The unusually high level of celebration in Israeli military and political circles following the operation, he said, signals a need to showcase success after a prolonged period of operational frustration.

Alma’s publication of names and photos of Hezbollah leaders, he added, should be read as psychological and strategic pressure rather than an official Israeli threat.

“The message is clear: political figures may also fall within the scope of targeting,” he said.

Malaeb warned that the next phase of pressure will not be limited to military escalation. An upcoming visit by a U.S. Treasury delegation to Beirut, he said, indicates a new push to suffocate Hezbollah’s financing networks; a threat far more dangerous to the party than weapons themselves.

“Hezbollah’s problem is that it has not acknowledged defeat,” he said. “The longer the denial continues, the higher the risk of further Israeli escalation.”