In a country where political interests are deeply intertwined with the balance of arms and legitimacy, several parties are repositioning themselves according to both old and renewed electoral calculations, perpetuating a familiar state of crisis where political maneuvering intersects with the power of weapons operating outside State institutions.

According to information shared with kataeb.org by a former MP closely following the ongoing electoral preparations, Hezbollah is clearly moving to reactivate its alliance with the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) in anticipation of possible parliamentary elections in the spring of 2026. However, unlike past experiences that were promoted under the banner of a “shared national interest,” this renewed alliance appears driven by a different equation: Hezbollah’s need for a Christian cover that can grant it renewed popular legitimacy and allow it to remain insulated from the authority of the State and its institutions.

The former MP explained that this alliance is not rooted in a shared political vision or a common reform plan, but rather reflects a one-sided interest serving Hezbollah. Through it, the group seeks to consolidate its position within the system by securing an “electoral endorsement” that legitimizes the continued existence of its weapons, despite growing domestic and international calls for full sovereignty and for arms to be placed exclusively under State control.

The source noted that signs of this renewed understanding have already surfaced in the issue of expatriate voting, where both the FPM and the Shiite duo (Hezbollah and Amal) have been coordinating, both openly and behind the scenes, to block any amendment to the electoral law that would strengthen the Lebanese diaspora’s role and influence at the ballot box, particularly in districts where the opposition might gain ground.

Based on these developments, the same source interprets this early electoral coordination as a defensive move by Hezbollah, which is not approaching the upcoming vote from a position of strength, but rather from a need for a Christian ally capable of providing the political cover required to preserve the image of popular support for its weapons in the next parliament.

What is even more troubling, the source added, is that the FPM, whose political and popular influence has significantly declined in recent years, appears willing to repeat its past mistake by once again offering Christian legitimacy to a party increasingly positioned outside Lebanon’s social contract.

“What we are witnessing is a clear attempt to turn back the clock and revive failed arrangements that serve no purpose other than to resuscitate a party that continues to impose its terms through the force of arms rather than through the authority of the State," the source concluded.