Southern Tensions, U.S. Envoy Exit, and Syrian Influx Stir Concern in Fragile Lebanon

As uncertainty grows over recent U.S. personnel changes in the Middle East, Lebanese officials are closely watching for formal communication from Washington regarding the reported end of Morgan Ortagus’s mandate as Deputy U.S. Envoy to the region. Ortagus had been overseeing the sensitive Lebanon-Israel file, and her potential replacement has left Beirut navigating a diplomatic gray area at a time of rising tensions and critical security developments.

While Lebanese authorities have yet to receive official word on whether Ortagus will make a final visit or be succeeded imminently, most officials are steering clear of premature conclusions about what the change means. The prevailing assessment in Beirut is that the reshuffle is part of a routine bureaucratic realignment between the U.S. State Department and the National Security Council, rather than a shift in the Trump administration’s broader Middle East strategy.

Still, the transition has prompted concerns, particularly amid fears of escalating volatility in southern Lebanon. Officials say Israeli violations persist, and with no clear American deterrent in place, the situation risks spiraling in the absence of decisive diplomatic engagement.

These concerns come as Lebanon faces growing pressure over the upcoming renewal of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), whose mandate expires at the end of August. The issue has taken on new urgency as tensions rise in the South, where recent flare-ups have already tested the fragile truce that took effect in November 2024.

On Sunday, UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert arrived in Israel for a round of high-level meetings with Israeli officials. In a statement, her office said the visit was “part of ongoing consultations aimed at consolidating the progress achieved since the understanding to halt hostilities came into force, and at reinforcing the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.”

Hennis-Plasschaert urged all parties to uphold their commitments under the ceasefire and to work toward the conditions needed for long-term peace and stability along the Blue Line, the de facto border between Lebanon and Israel.

UNIFIL, meanwhile, released a statement reaffirming its operational coordination with the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). It said it continues to support the LAF’s redeployment throughout UNIFIL’s area of operations with the goal of enhancing regional stability and security. The mission said this joint effort “aims to create a safe and protected environment not only for peacekeepers but also for civilians living north of and along the Blue Line.” UNIFIL also detailed its recent activities in the western sector, carried out in close cooperation with the LAF.

Away from the security front, Lebanese officials are also facing growing criticism for failing to address a renewed surge of displaced Syrians, particularly in the northern governorates of Akkar and North Lebanon. Despite repeated public statements about coordination with Syria’s authorities, local communities report that new arrivals continue to pour in, largely unmonitored.

The scale of the problem was highlighted in a report released Monday by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), which stated that ongoing military operations in the Syrian provinces of Tartous, Latakia, Homs, and Hama have forced thousands to flee since early March.

“Civilians continue to be displaced to North Lebanon and Akkar due to sustained hostilities,” the report noted. “Newly arrived refugees are currently spread across 35 different sites, most of them in Akkar, bringing the total number of recent arrivals to 39,762.”

The UNHCR added that what began as sporadic displacement has now evolved into a protracted crisis. Many displaced continue to arrive in dire humanitarian condition, despite a slight drop in arrivals over the past month. Aid agencies on the ground are bracing for more waves, with instability in Syria’s coastal regions showing no signs of abating. Due to the large number of makeshift sites, humanitarian groups are also facing delays in accurately identifying and assisting new arrivals.

This is the English adaptation of an article originally published by Annahar.