David Schenker, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs and current fellow at the Washington Institute, said that an agreement between Hezbollah and Israel is possible, warning that a war would inflict severe damage on both sides.

"Israel and Hezbollah do not seek war. After October 7, when Hamas borrowed a page from Hezbollah’s playbook, Israel decided it could no longer tolerate the current situation with about 10,000 Hezbollah Radwan forces along its border. On the other hand, Hezbollah, after years of serving as Iran’s foreign legion in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, finally saw it necessary to fight Israel again, thus engaging in active resistance against the enemy," Schenker said in an interview with Annahar daily.

"The exchanges have significantly intensified. Hezbollah has stated it will not cease operations until there is a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Israel plans to end major combat operations in Gaza in the coming weeks, but a formal ceasefire is unlikely. When Israel reduces its military operations in Gaza, the ball will be in Hezbollah's court. Either it stops its attacks and engages in negotiations, or there will be war,” he added. “While a quiet understanding—similar to the deal brokered by Secretary of State Warren Christopher in 1996 after Israel's Operation Grapes of Wrath—is possible, time is running out. War would inflict severe losses on both Israel and Lebanon, but Hezbollah and its patrons in Tehran seem comfortable with the current medium-intensity attrition battle. Israel will not tolerate this situation indefinitely."

Regarding diplomatic efforts aimed at defusing tensions, Schenker explained that U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein proposed a plan allowing both parties to declare victory and temporarily delay war.

“Through mediated negotiations, Hezbollah would 'liberate' Lebanese territories along the Blue Line—including the village of Ghajar—while Israel would secure Hezbollah's agreement to withdraw its military forces a few kilometers from the border, enabling 70,000 displaced Israeli citizens to return home. There's little confidence this agreement would last, but it could delay what would undoubtedly be an extremely costly conflagration. American and French efforts might succeed, but time is short," he elaborated.

Schenker noted that The Lebanese state serves as the indirect negotiation channel between the U.S. administration and Hezbollah, deploring the fact that it does not have a say in matters related to peace and war.

Regarding the ongoing presidential elections deadlock, Schenker said that "Lebanon is a failed state, not just because it lacks sovereignty but because it desperately needs reform, and the political class has not been up to the task.”

“The last president of Lebanon refused to implement reforms. The future Lebanese president, depending on his identity, might also avoid reforms. Moving forward, it is crucial for Lebanon to have a president who has the trust of most Lebanese, has a vision for the future, and is not beholden to foreign governments or militias. Given the historical stakes associated with this position—especially if the president values Lebanese sovereignty—courage is also essential. Six more years of a president loyal to Syria and Iran and friendly to Hezbollah would further undermine hopes for Lebanon's sovereignty and prosperity. Essentially, it would mean more of the same," he warned.

"Hezbollah dominates Lebanon and, unfortunately, will make decisions on matters of war and peace. However, Lebanese authorities and politicians can influence other important issues. Economic reform and combating corruption should be priorities. Those opposing the current state path under Hezbollah’s control should set aside petty differences and work together for common interests. Now is not the time for business as usual," Schenker concluded.