Source: FX Empire
Security & Justice
Southern Lebanon Endures Massive Damage: 40,000 Homes Leveled Across 37 Towns
Israeli forces have systematically destroyed entire neighborhoods in southern Lebanon, leveling more than 37 towns and wiping out over 40,000 residential units, according to Lebanon's National News Agency.
Tuesday, November 5, 2024
Gaps in Coastal Radar Enabled Israeli Raid in Batroun, Army Commander Says
Lebanon’s army chief, General Joseph Aoun, detailed to Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati how Israeli forces likely exploited gaps in the country's coastal radar system during the recent raid carried out in Batroun. The briefing comes as Lebanese officials seek answers on how Israel’s elite Shayetet 13 unit carried out the landing undetected.
Monday, November 4, 2024
Opinion
The Emptying of Baalbek Is a Moment to Take Stock
“Large numbers of people continue to flee their homes every day, as Israel’s military operations in Lebanon have been going on unabated.” These disturbing words could be from almost any news report about Israel’s invasion of its northern neighbour over the past month. However, they can be found in a report by the Norwegian Refugee Council’s Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre issued on July 27, 2006.
Saturday, November 2, 2024
A Future Without Hezbollah
At the end of September, when Israel’s campaign to destroy Hezbollah was reaching its height, I met one of the group’s supporters in a seaside café in western Beirut. He was a middle-aged man with a thin white beard and the spent look of someone who had not slept for days. He was an academic of sorts, not a fighter, but his ties to Hezbollah were deep and long-standing.
Thursday, October 31, 2024
Sports
FC Barcelona Fears First Team Star Will Be Banned From Playing, Reports SPORT
FC Barcelona is concerned that one of its main first-team stars will be banned from playing at the turn of 2025 because of issues related to his registration and Financial Fair Play (FFP) limits according to SPORT, which cited anonymous sources.
Friday, November 1, 2024
Tottenham Forward Son Heung-min Crowned Asia’s International Player of the Year
Tottenham forward Son Heung-min was crowned as Asia’s International Player of the Year for the fourth time by the Asian Football Confederation at its annual awards ceremony Tuesday.
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
Friday 23 February 2024 17:00:16
Oil Prices Forecast: Rate Cut Delay by Fed Tempers Oil Rally
The crude oil market is currently facing a mix of influential factors on Friday, primarily shaped by U.S. Federal Reserve policies and fundamental supply-demand elements.
This week, oil prices are showing a downturn trend, potentially breaking a two-week growth streak. This shift on Friday is largely influenced by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller’s recent statements, suggesting a delay in interest rate cuts. A delay could strengthen the U.S. Dollar, potentially reducing foreign demand for dollar-denominated crude oil.
At 10:50 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $77.66, down $0.95 or -1.21%.
Federal Reserve’s Impact
Governor Waller’s emphasis on requiring more data to assess inflation before supporting rate cuts indicates a cautious stance by the Fed. This affects the crude oil market in two significant ways:
Stronger U.S. Dollar: A robust dollar could make crude oil more expensive for international buyers, possibly reducing global demand.
Economic Growth Outlook: Prolonged higher interest rates could slow down economic growth, indirectly impacting oil demand, particularly in the U.S., a key oil consumer.
Supply and Demand Factors
Despite these economic concerns, other factors may support oil prices:
Healthy Demand Indicators: JPMorgan’s high-frequency demand indicators show an increase in oil demand, partly driven by enhanced travel demand in China and Europe.
Refinery Activity: U.S. refinery run rates are showing signs of an increase, which could lead to higher crude oil processing.
Geopolitical Tensions
The ongoing tensions in the Middle East, especially increased hostilities in the Red Sea, are critical factors that could disrupt supply routes and create a risk premium on oil prices.
Inventory and Refinery Updates
U.S. crude inventories have recently risen, but less than expected. Major refinery outages have led to a decrease in distillate inventories, indicating potential tightness in refined product supply.
Short-Term Forecast: Cautiously Bullish
Given these factors, the short-term outlook for crude oil appears cautiously bullish. While the Fed’s stance and a strong U.S. dollar present challenges, strong demand indicators, recovery in refinery activities, and geopolitical tensions in key oil transit regions are likely to support oil prices.
The market is currently factoring in potential supply disruptions, evident in the widening premium of the front-month crude futures over the second month. However, this bullish sentiment is moderated by the ongoing inventory builds and the uncertain pace of refinery restarts.
Technical Analysis
Light crude oil futures are lower on Friday, but hovering just below a potential breakout price at $79.01. A move through this price will reaffirm the developing uptrend and will put the next target at $82.68 on the radar.
On the downside, the first support is the static level at $77.43. This is followed by the all-important 200-day moving average at $76.39, which is controlling the long-term trend.
Should the 200-day MA fail then prices would likely become rangebound with the 50-day moving average at $73.96 forming the support base and the 200-day MA, the range cap.
