A year after Hamas militants launched an unprecedented attack on southern Israel, triggering a war that has killed tens of thousands and displaced millions – with the body count still rising – the conflict shows no sign of abating, expanding beyond Gaza’s borders into Lebanon and multiple fronts in the Middle East.

The October 7, 2023, attack, which killed around 1,200 Israelis and saw some 250 taken hostage, according to Israeli officials, set off a chain of events that reshaped the Middle East’s political dynamics, devastated Gaza, sparked a mass exodus in Lebanon and left Israeli, Palestinian and Lebanese nationals grappling with immense loss and an uncertain future.

‘One killed every two hours in Gaza’

In the retaliatory offensive launched by Israel, in the past year, more than 41,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, according to health officials in the Hamas-run enclave. They say a little over half of those killed were women and children.

The death toll equates to roughly one Palestinian killed every two hours since Israel’s campaign began, based on Al Arabiya English calculations. At the same time, Israeli airstrikes and ground operations have left much of Gaza’s infrastructure reduced to rubble, including hospitals, schools, and residential areas.

Aid agencies report severe shortages of food, clean water, and medical supplies and most of Gaza’s hospitals are no longer functional due to damage and lack of fuel for generators. The education system has collapsed, with nearly all schools closed or destroyed, leaving an entire generation without formal schooling.

The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNWRA) posted on X earlier this week that, since the war began, more than 140 UNWRA schools have come under Israeli attack.

“I cannot quantify the horror that people have endured relentlessly for 12 months,” Louise Wateridge, the UNRWA spokesperson, posted on X this week. “I cannot fully portray the fear instilled upon an entire population, every hour, of every day. I cannot share the overwhelming smell of blood in hospitals.”

The Israeli blockade, tightened since the conflict began, has severely restricted the entry of humanitarian aid. The United Nations estimates 1.9 million Palestinians in Gaza, the vast majority of the population, have been displaced over the past year. Many are crammed into overcrowded shelters or tents in the southern part of the strip.

With bombs still snowing down on Gaza, for many of the Palestinian Territory’s 2.4 million people, the future remains shrouded in grave uncertainty.

After an Israeli strike leveled his family home in Gaza City in 2014, 37-year-old Mohammed Abu Sharia made good on his pledge to return to the same plot within less than a year.

The process was imperfect: The grant they received paid for only two floors instead of the original four, but they happily called it home until it came under aerial assault again last October, following Hamas’s attack on southern Israel.

This time, the family could not flee in time and five people were killed, including four children. The rest remain displaced nearly a year later, scattered across Gaza and in neighboring Egypt.

“A person puts his life’s hard work into building a house, and suddenly it becomes a mirage,” Abu Sharia told AFP. “If the war stops, we will build again in the same place because we have nothing else.”

Expanding conflict

While Gaza remains the epicenter of the post-October 7 war and has borne the brunt of Israel’s devastating retaliatory attacks – the conflict has expanded over the past year to engulf other parts of the region.

In recent weeks, Israel has dramatically escalated attacks on neighboring Lebanon, targeting what it says are Hezbollah strongholds across the country. It says it is trying to secure its border with Lebanon, so tens of thousands of Israelis displaced by nearly a year of exchanges of fire with Hezbollah can return home.

Israel and Hezbollah have been trading fire and cross-border attacks since October 8, 2023, a day after Hezbollah’s Palestinian ally Hamas attacked southern Israel. However, a full-blown shock offensive began just a couple of weeks back with Israeli forces attacking Hezbollah’s communication systems, disabling hundreds of fighters whose operational pagers and radios exploded, and killing a significant number of senior Hezbollah commanders, decimating the group’s command structure.

Then, on September 27, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Beirut’s southern suburbs, marking a transformative moment for the Middle East. The region is still reeling under the aftershocks from the death of a man whose leadership had powered Hezbollah to become one of Iran’s most efficient proxies.

Hezbollah intensified rocket attacks on northern Israel in response, but, on October 1, Israel boldly stepped up its escalation, launching a ground incursion into southern Lebanon, saying its forces had crossed the border to target Hezbollah positions. The same day, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it had launched attacks on Israel in retaliation for the killings of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. Some 200 ballistic missiles were launched at Israel as a result.

More than 1.2 million Lebanese have been displaced by Israeli attacks, and nearly 2,000 people have been killed since the start of the Israeli attacks on Lebanon over the last year, most of them in the past two weeks, Lebanese authorities said.

Early on Friday, Lebanon’s health ministry said 27 people were killed and 151 wounded over the previous day.

As the escalation continues to spill over onto the Red Sea, offensives by Yemen’s Houthis – who claim solidarity with Hamas – continue to affect one of the world’s key shipping routes.

Looking ahead

As Israel’s military operation in Gaza approaches its one-year mark, experts warn of a dangerous escalation in regional tensions and a lack of a clear exit strategy. At the same time, the humanitarian crisis in the Palestinian enclave deepens.

Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East Security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told Al Arabiya English that the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks on Israel have had a profound impact on the country’s psyche, potentially influencing its security approach toward Gaza and Lebanon.

Comparing the scale of the attacks to 9/11, Ozcelik noted that the impact on Israel was proportionally more severe.

“More than 1,200 Israelis were killed in a population of less than 10 million. This is equivalent to killing almost 40,000 civilians in the United States,” she explained.

The subsequent Israeli offensive in Gaza has resulted in widespread destruction and a staggering death toll.

Ozcelik warned that the death toll’s impact “on the psyches of societies in the wider region should not be underestimated.”

Hopes for a ceasefire ‘dim’

As the conflict enters its second year, hopes for an immediate ceasefire appear dim. “It appears that the ceasefire negotiations are at a standstill,” Ozcelik said, citing recent developments, including Israeli ground offensives into southern Lebanon and direct Iranian missile attacks on Israel.

“This means the persistence of severe human insecurity for Palestinians living in the conflict zone that is now the daily reality in Gaza.”

The fate of the remaining Israeli hostages held by Hamas remains uncertain. Ozcelik suggested that Israel’s operations in Lebanon might be an attempt to pressure Hezbollah to influence Hamas for their release, but added: “There is yet no evidence that this is working in practice.”

Concerns are growing that Israel’s shift in focus to Lebanon could prolong the conflict in Gaza. Ozcelik emphasized the urgent need for Israel to articulate its exit strategy from Gaza and for international efforts to design a stabilization and recovery plan for the enclave.

One year after Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel, two former US officials have also offered insights into the shifting sands of Middle Eastern politics and security.

Dennis Ross, former US point man on Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, and Dana Stroul, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East, both experts with the Washinton Institute for Near East Policy, shared their perspectives on the region’s transformation and prospects.

Ross highlighted the shift in regional dynamics since the attack. “October 7 comes along, and it transforms the region,” he said, noting that it shattered expectations of a calm Middle East on the brink of Saudi-Israeli normalization.

The conflict has reshaped Israel’s security landscape. According to Ross, Israel has “pretty much reduced Hamas to a non-military threat” and “decimated the leadership of Hezbollah,” altering two significant fronts facing Israel before the attack.

Despite ongoing tensions, Ross also sees potential opportunities emerging from the conflict. He suggested that weakening Iran’s proxies could create an opening for the United States to help “remake Lebanon and reassert the sovereignty of the state over the non-state actor that paralyzed it.”

Stroul outlined the Biden administration’s journey in its use of military force and posture in the region since October 7, 2023. “We’ve seen different applications of US military force,” Stroul explained, saying, the US has significantly increased its military presence in the Middle East – from about 30,000 troops before October 6, 2023, to an estimated 43,000 now. Stroul views this as a “significant investment of resources and personnel signaling enduring US commitment to the region.”

Both experts stressed the need for reassessment in light of unexpected events over the past year. “We’ve seen so many black swans in the last year, events that we did not predict,” Stroul said, citing Hamas’s October 7 attack, Iran’s direct assault on Israel, and the IDF’s operations against the Hezbollah leadership.

Weighing in on the events of the past year, Ruth Wasserman Lande, a former Israeli politician and diplomat, told Al Arabiya English multiple cross-border fighting is unlikely to stem anytime soon, claiming that Israel had waited before launching its latest attacks on Lebanon.

She points out that Hezbollah, which she describes as “the Iranian proxy, the Iranian arm, rather than the arm of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” began bombarding Israel from the north before Israel was ‘forced’ to retaliate.

She highlights the severe impact on local communities: “I’m talking about 60,000-70,000 civilians who were displaced, farmers who lost everything that they had worked for, and businesses that just about went bankrupt.”

Establishing buffer zones

When asked about her hopes for the future, Lande advocates for a comprehensive regional approach. “I would like to see a kind of comprehensive regional understanding that is not only for Gaza or only for the West Bank or only for Lebanon,” she says.

Key elements of her vision include establishing buffer zones to prevent terrorist infiltration, re-education efforts in Palestinian Territories and neighboring countries, addressing the ideology and incitement that fuel conflict, and partnering with moderate Arab states for regional stability.

Lande acknowledges that achieving these goals will take time. “Can this happen in a year? No, this is at least a couple of years, and, most probably, a generation,” she admits.

Hostages still in captivity

For families of the estimated 101 hostages still held in Gaza, a third of whom are believed to be dead, the past year has been agonizing.

Among the hostages, two are children and 10 are women. They include Romi Gonen, 23, who was attending the Supernova electronic music festival with thousands of other young Israelis when militants from Hamas crossed the border from Gaza.

According to Gonen’s sister Yarden, Romi called her in a panic that morning as gunfire erupted around the outdoor venue.

“She called me around 6:40 and [said] that there are missiles, and she needs my help. I knew that she was at the festival, but I didn’t know where it was,” Yarden told Al Arabiya English.

For hours the sisters shared back-and-forth dialogue as Hamas advanced.

In the last 10 minutes of the call, Yarden said Romi stayed silent as the attackers could be heard getting closer to a car Romi had found for shelter and attempting to start it. “They were screaming among themselves, shooting constantly.

Then they are getting closer to Romi. It sounded like they were moving her, dragging her.”

Then the call cut out.

“My mum knew at that point already... that there [was] a kidnapping event,” Yarden said.

She still does not know the fate of her sister but believes she is still alive.

“I have no idea what she’s going through. I just stay optimistic but for how long can it last?” Yarden asked.

Oshy Ellman, an Israeli citizen, recalling that horrific day, told Al Arabiya English: “As someone who observes the Sabbath, I was shielded from the immediate news, but once the day ended and I turned on my phone and television, the sheer scale of the terror that had unfolded hit me with unimaginable force.”

People losing hope in Gaza

It could take 80 years to rebuild the roughly 79,000 homes that were destroyed, the United Nations special rapporteur on the right to housing said in May.

A UN report in July said workers could need 15 years just to clear the rubble.

The slow response to past Gaza wars in 2008-09, 2012, 2014, and 2021 gives little reason for confidence that rebounding from the current crisis will be any smoother, said Omar Shaban, founder of the Gaza-based think tank PalThink for Strategic Studies.

Regional governments have in the past pledged large sums, but then failed to disburse them.

The Israeli blockade of Gaza, imposed after Hamas took control of the territory in 2007, remains firmly in place, sharply restricting access to building materials.

“People are fed up,” Shaban said. “They had lost their faith even before the war started.”

Israel continues its warning

But on Friday, the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs told Al Arabiya English that it would continue to pursue any action to bring back hostages and seek justice for the October 7 attacks.

“One year ago, on October 7, without any provocation, Hamas terrorists attacked Israel….entire families were annihilated. Til this very day, a year after the massacre, Hamas still holds 101 hostages – including women, very young children, and elderly people – in brutal captivity.”

“The day after, on 8 October, also completely unprovoked, Hezbollah attacked Israel from the north. This terrorist organization has fired thousands of rockets, killing dozens of Israelis, including children, and forcing the evacuation of more than 60,000 Israelis from their homes.”

Hezbollah has repeatedly said its cross border attacks are in support of the Palestinians in Gaza. The ministry also said Israel has seen attacks by Yemen’s Houthis as well. Attacks which the Houthis also say are in support of Palestinians but which Israel retaliated against by striking the port city of Hodeidah. Most recently, Airstrikes were launched at several parts of Yemen including its capital Sanaa and Hodeidah airport.

However, the ministry said, “Israel did not ask for this war. This war was forced on Israel. Israel’s fight is not with the civilian population of Gaza or Beirut but only with the terrorists that attack its citizens.”

The statement continued, “Israel has no interest in an all-out war, but like any other country, it will do whatever is necessary to protect its citizens, to bring the hostages back home, and to bring about the return of the residents of the north to their homes.”

Iran and Hezbollah have also expressed no interest in an all out war but Hezbollah has said it would continue its attacks as long as the war on Gaza continued while Iran said it would retaliate if hit by Israel.