A vote is expected today in the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee to approve the nomination of Joel Rayburn as Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs. Rayburn underwent a confirmation hearing nearly three weeks ago, and will still require a full Senate vote to assume office.

Rayburn’s anticipated appointment comes amid growing speculation in Washington over a potential recalibration of the Trump administration’s approach to Lebanon, driven in part by shifting U.S.-Israeli dynamics on the Iranian nuclear file. Analysts suggest that a tactical divergence between Washington and Tel Aviv may prompt the U.S. to adopt a more restrained posture toward Beirut, Nidaa Al-Watan newspaper said.

In recent weeks, Hezbollah has fought what some observers describe as a losing battle, marred by misinformation campaigns and flawed political and military calculations. Now facing mounting regional and international isolation, coupled with intensifying domestic scrutiny, the group is reportedly betting on a softening of the firm U.S. position on its weapons arsenal and internal influence.

The speculation was fueled by news that Morgan Ortagus, Deputy U.S. Envoy to the Middle East, is being reassigned to a different post. However, U.S. sources with knowledge of the situation insist the reshuffle is part of a broader administrative streamlining within U.S. institutions. With Rayburn’s expected confirmation, his deputy Andrew Tabler already overseeing the Lebanon and Syria portfolios, and the next U.S. Ambassador to Beirut, Michel Issa, getting ready to take up his port, Ortagus’ position has become redundant. These sources stress that the move has no punitive undertones and does not signal any shift away from Washington’s hardline stance on implementing international resolutions, dismantling illegal weapons groups, and enforcing long-demanded reforms in Lebanon.

Going forward, Lebanon policy is likely to fall under the direct supervision of Ambassador Issa or the broader State Department apparatus. What reinforces the likelihood of Issa playing a central role is the Trump administration’s structural changes to the chain of command, specifically, assigning Senator Marco Rubio to serve as a bridge between the National Security Council and the State Department. This restructuring is designed to streamline decision-making and facilitate unimpeded communication between the President and his team on the ground.

Issa, a close personal friend of Trump from his New York days and a frequent golf partner, could theoretically pick up the phone and speak directly to the President. Tasked with implementing Trump’s agenda, Issa is expected to adopt a tough stance, driven by what sources describe as a sense of historical responsibility tied to his Lebanese heritage. Free from political ambitions, he is seen as capable of making bold decisions aimed at countering Hezbollah’s military and economic influence which is widely viewed in Washington as an obstacle to Lebanon’s long-overdue recovery and sovereignty.

Still, insiders caution that Ortagus will not be relieved of her Lebanon portfolio overnight. Rayburn, meanwhile, faced a tough grilling during his confirmation hearing, particularly from Senator Rand Paul, a Republican who champions a non-interventionist foreign policy and has opposed deep U.S. engagement abroad. Democratic members also pressed Rayburn on issues such as a controversial Boeing 747 gifted by Qatar to Trump, testing his diplomatic tact early on.

Today’s vote by the Foreign Affairs Committee will be followed by a full vote in Congress. As for Andrew Tabler, Rayburn’s deputy for Lebanon and Syria, his appointment is expected to proceed smoothly, pending final security and political clearance from the White House.

Yet perhaps the most telling comment came from one Washington source familiar with the administration’s Middle East outlook: “The worst is yet to come.”

Those hoping for a U.S. policy retreat on Hezbollah, the source said, “will soon be nostalgic for the Ortagus era.” Whether the policy torch is held by Rayburn, Tabler, or Issa, there will be no easing of pressure on Hezbollah’s arms and operations.

Who Is Joel Rayburn?

A former artillery officer and a no-nonsense diplomat, Joel Rayburn is no stranger to the Middle East. Known for his hardline views on Iran and its regional proxies, Rayburn has long advocated for tougher sanctions on Iranian-backed entities, chief among them Hezbollah. Those who know him say he views even the Trump administration’s current approach as overly lenient.

Rayburn previously served as U.S. Special Envoy for Syria, where he took strong positions against the Assad regime and vocally opposed Western and Arab efforts to re-engage with Damascus. He was a leading voice in U.S. efforts to combat the captagon drug trade flowing from Syria and Lebanon to Latin America.

His resume is extensive. A prolific military and strategic thinker, Rayburn helped design the "Iraq Freedom Plan" originally conceived during the Clinton years and later executed by George W. Bush. From 2006 to 2011, he completed multiple combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, including during the "surge" years of 2007 and 2008. He publicly criticized the Obama administration’s 2011 decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq, warning in a Hoover Institution piece that the move could lead to a security vacuum and a resurgence of civil conflict.

Between 2017 and 2018, Rayburn served as Senior Director for Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon at the National Security Council. He was a key advisor during the U.S. airstrikes on Syria in April 2017 and 2018, aimed at deterring the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons. He also played a central role in shaping the Trump administration’s strategy on Iran.