In his latest comprehensive evaluation report on the implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 (2006), covering the period from June 21 to Oct. 20, 2024, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres highlights an "alarming escalation in tensions between Israel and Hezbollah," exacerbating violations of the cessation of hostilities outlined in the resolution and threatening to plunge the region into widespread conflict.

Armed confrontations peaked with the launch of Israel's ‘Northern Arrows’ operation on Sept. 23, accompanied by heavy bombardments and ground incursions north of the Blue Line. The extensive Israeli shelling across Lebanon, including Beirut and urban areas, caused significant human losses, massive displacement, and widespread destruction.

In response, Hezbollah escalated its attacks on Israel using rockets, missiles, and drones. "The dramatic escalation in hostilities underscores the urgency of an immediate return to the cessation of hostilities and the long-term imperative of progressing toward a permanent ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel," the U.N. chief stated.

Resolution 1701 reshaped the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in response to the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, calling for a cessation of hostilities between the parties. This report, including two detailed annexes on UNIFIL and the reinforcement of the Lebanese army, is slated for closed Security Council consultations on Nov. 19.

The U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, and the Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations, Jean-Pierre Lacroix, who recently toured Lebanon and Israel, are the expected speakers. Council members are closely monitoring developments in Lebanon, Israel, and the region to assess whether additional measures are needed.

Disarmament and Arms Control

Despite international efforts, no progress has been made regarding the disarmament of non-state armed groups in Lebanon. The report notes that Hezbollah's military actions continue to violate Resolutions 1701 and 1559 (2004).

Hezbollah has demonstrated its military capabilities, heightening tensions through the use of offensive drones and surface-to-air missiles, claiming over 3,194 military operations against Israel since October 2023. Meanwhile, Israel has intensified strikes to counter alleged arms transfers to Hezbollah from Syria via routes and border crossings.

UNIFIL Activities

UNIFIL continues to document violations of the resolution despite increased restrictions on its operations. Data recorded include: 2,531 projectiles fired from north to south of the Blue Line and 3,332 in the reverse direction between June and September 2024.

A sharp increase to 15,481 projectiles from south to north after September 23. 1,892 Israeli aerial violations recorded from June to September, totaling 7,251 hours of overflight, with intensified activity after September reaching 1,293 violations for 7,450 hours. Israeli airstrikes also hit UNIFIL positions, injuring peacekeepers and hindering monitoring activities.

Humanitarian Crisis

The conflict has resulted in a major humanitarian disaster:

Human losses: Over 2,467 deaths, including 150 children and 270 women since October 2023, during the period covered by the report. Of these, 1,860 deaths were recorded between September and October 2024. (The Lebanese Ministry of Health reports over 3,400 deaths in its latest count since October 2023.)

Displacement: Over 1.2 million people displaced.

Infrastructure: Massive destruction of homes and essential infrastructure, including hospitals and health facilities. Bombing damaged 28 water supply systems, affecting 344,400 people. The closure of five hospitals exacerbated the healthcare crisis. A cholera case was reported among displaced persons, increasing the risk to vulnerable populations. A U.N. flash appeal for $425.7 million launched in Paris to address the humanitarian crisis was only 15.1% funded by Oct. 20.

Impact on Civilians and Infrastructure

Densely populated areas, including Beirut and southern Lebanon, suffered significant human losses and material damage. Medical facilities, schools, and homes were severely affected, increasing civilian vulnerability. Israel issued several risk warnings, but intensive strikes caused widespread destruction, including residential buildings and medical centers.

Political and Institutional Situation

Domestically, Lebanon remains mired in major political instability, exacerbated by the presidential vacancy since 2022. Efforts to elect a president and implement economic and structural reforms, including an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), remain stalled. The Beirut port explosion of 2020 also remains unresolved judicially.

Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict included a joint call by the United States, France, and other nations for a temporary cease-fire. However, the parties continued to reject these proposals. The Lebanese government also called for full implementation of Resolution 1701. At the same time, Lebanon's political instability, worsened by the presidential vacancy and delays in economic reforms, complicates resolution efforts.

Observations

The Secretary-General expressed "deep concern" over the intensity of hostilities, calling for an immediate de-escalation and negotiations to restore a lasting cease-fire. The international community is urged to intensify diplomatic and humanitarian efforts to prevent a broader regional catastrophe.

In conclusion, the report warns against a spiral of violence that could destabilize the region. Immediate de-escalation, combined with concerted diplomatic efforts, is imperative to prevent disaster. The Secretary-General calls on all parties to fully respect Resolution 1701, ensure civilian protection, and cooperate with UNIFIL to secure peace and stability.