Once at the forefront of political and economic discussions, Lebanon’s oil and gas file has all but vanished from the national agenda. After dominating headlines and high-level meetings, the issue has now slipped into what experts describe as a “deep coma,” as policymakers shift their attention elsewhere and await the outcome of regional and domestic developments.

Why has the file gone dormant? And is its stagnation tied to the government’s sluggish reform efforts or the unresolved maritime border demarcation with Cyprus and Syria?

Speaking to Kataeb.org, Laury Haytayan, an expert in energy policy, said the Lebanese Ministry of Energy, along with the broader government, appear to view the period leading up to the next parliamentary elections as a limited window for action. According to Haytayan, authorities have shifted focus to what they consider more urgent concerns: electricity and water infrastructure, especially amid worsening drought conditions.

“The oil and gas file has been pushed to the sidelines, in part because it requires time to produce tangible results,” she said. “And the government believes it only has a year to act.”

She added that the ongoing failure to fill vacancies at the Petroleum Administration is a clear indication of where the government’s attention lies.

“Electricity has taken precedence over oil and gas, even though the Energy Minister has held meetings with TotalEnergies and Eni, and discussed the issue with Qatari partners during his recent trip to Doha, knowing that Qatar is a partner in Block 9,” she said.

Haytayan warned that the key challenge lies in attracting international companies to invest in Lebanon. She noted that Lebanon’s third offshore licensing round, which has been postponed multiple times, is now open until November 2025. Yet, no foreign company has submitted a bid.

“Whether in the oil sector or elsewhere, the Lebanese market simply doesn’t interest international investors at the moment,” she explained. “The absence of structural reforms, the failure to reach a deal with the International Monetary Fund—which would signal reform seriousness—persistent political instability, growing security risks, and repeated Israeli threats have all deterred foreign companies. On top of that, Lebanon lacks a coherent economic vision that could attract long-term investment.”

Haytayan noted that Syria’s recent momentum in the energy sector has further diminished Lebanon’s appeal.

“Developments in Syria have drawn investor attention away from Lebanon,” she said. “Lebanon’s sluggishness, combined with its political, economic, and security crises, has pushed foreign investors away. And now, we don’t know how the recent events in Sweida will affect the relationships Syria has been trying to build with those investors.”

Asked whether Lebanon’s stalled oil file is directly linked to unresolved maritime border demarcation with Syria and Cyprus, Haytayan pushed back on that idea.

“Operations began in Block 4 despite border disputes. And after the maritime agreement with Israel was signed, drilling proceeded in Block 9,” she explained. “So no, the lack of demarcation with Syria and Cyprus isn’t what’s keeping companies away. The real issue is the lack of essential reforms and political stability. That’s what makes Lebanon unattractive.”

Still, she acknowledged that border demarcation with both countries remains essential and is “to some extent” connected to the oil and gas exploration file.

“We don’t expect serious complications with either country. Negotiations with Cyprus have progressed as a negotiation committee was formed, and a Cypriot delegation is scheduled to visit Lebanon to finalize talks. Cyprus was satisfied with Lebanon’s 2007 maritime demarcation, even though it hasn’t been ratified by Parliament. The next step is applying international maritime laws to close the file.”

The border with Syria presents a different set of challenges, Haytayan pointed out.

“There are no real technical obstacles,” she said. “The issue is political will. It depends on whether the Syrians are open to cooperation. We don’t yet know if U.S. envoy Thomas Barrack will step in to mediate between the two sides.”

Haytayan also expressed concern over the delay in the release of TotalEnergies’ final report on its exploratory drilling in Block 9, which concluded in October 2023.

“Total has the right to drill, but the block itself is owned by the Lebanese state,” she emphasized. “That gives Lebanon the right to access all information contained in the report.”