Lebanon is gearing up for a potential large-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah. Predicting the precise nature of a 2024 conflict, if it occurs, remains difficult. It would be inaccurate to compare it theoretically to the 2006 Lebanon War, given the changes in Hezbollah’s missile capabilities and Israel's escalating threats. Nor would it be appropriate to liken it to the Gaza conflict, due to the unique geopolitical and natural conditions governing Lebanon.

 

Simulating the worst-case scenarios within available means remains a prudent approach. In this context, the healthcare sector is on high alert, preparing for any potential fragmentation of the country and for managing injuries and casualties.

 

We met yesterday with Caretaker Minister of Health Dr. Firas Abiad, who has been holding successive meetings recently with representatives from unions, hospitals, emergency sectors, and donor organizations as part of emergency planning efforts.

 

Abiad received an emergency aid shipment from the World Health Organization (WHO) weighing 32 tons, which included medical supplies and medications for treating war-related injuries, with additional shipments anticipated in the future.

 

The Minister reiterated his stance against war and his call for a ceasefire, emphasizing the flexibility and readiness of the healthcare sector for the worst-case scenarios. However, his urgent plea focused on the situation of refugees who could be severely affected by the war, noting that, so far, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has not clarified its role or commitments towards them.

 

Abiad discussed the resilience of the healthcare sector, which has weathered successive crises—from the economic collapse to the COVID-19 pandemic, Beirut blast, and the exodus of healthcare professionals—expressing confidence that Lebanon's decades-long investment in this sector has equipped it to handle even the most challenging conditions.

 

He recalled the evacuation of hospitals during Beirut blast and other critical events.

 

But does this readiness compare to the Lebanon War or Gaza scenarios? He responded: “We are preparing for the worst-case scenarios. Our situation is different from Gaza's, where it is expected that food and other supplies could still find their way in. Gaza is a small area surrounded by Israel, unlike Lebanon's geographic position.”

 

When asked whether the healthcare sector, strained since 2019, could withstand a major war, Abiad expressed admiration for the sector's resilience and its commitment to responding to the call of duty.

 

He recalled that “the attack on the southern suburbs also hit Bahman Hospital, and despite the damage, it managed to treat over 60 wounded, even as three public hospitals in the south were in the line of fire, with one worker at Mayss El Jabal Hospital losing their life.”

He affirmed that there is enough stock of medical supplies to last four months if imports are disrupted.

 

Regarding the WHO shipment, it is “one of several. The Ministry of Health has already distributed nearly 100 tons of supplies to hospitals, and we appreciate the cooperation from our international partners. However, it is crucial to sound the alarm about the refugees, as the coverage that UNHCR should provide remains inadequate, with no clear understanding of its obligations. Lebanon cannot shoulder this responsibility alone, and the United Nations must fulfill its duties toward the refugees, who constitute a third of Lebanon’s population and could be affected by hostilities. We are collaborating with the relevant agencies to connect them to primary care centers and strengthen the concept of mobile clinics.”

 

Cancer patients, who have repeatedly faced drug shortages, are also in the circle of concern if a war breaks out.

 

Abiad noted that following the ministry’s recent tender, “we now have a sufficient supply to last for a year, with a significant quantity already delivered or en route. In recent months, we have been able to meet the needs of a larger number of patients compared to the previous period, and with the expected arrival of more medications, their situation is set to improve.”