Source: Forbes
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Monday 30 December 2024 10:34:42
The Los Angeles Lakers made their long-awaited splash on the trade market Sunday, sending D'Angelo Russell, Maxwell Lewis, and three second-round picks to the Brooklyn Nets for Dorian Finney-Smith and Shake Milton.
It comes as little surprise that the Lakers pursued win-now reinforcements while the Nets accepted assets for a 30-something veteran who didn't factor into their long-term plans.
The terms of the deal could provide some hints about what to expect around the league between now and the Feb. 6 NBA trade deadline, though.
On Thursday, longtime NBA insider Marc Stein reported the Memphis Grizzlies were "a team to watch" in the pursuit of Finney-Smith. Stein added Saturday that the Grizzlies were in "active discussions" with the Nets about flipping John Konchar and Luke Kennard for Finney-Smith.
However, the Lakers ultimately outbid them by including three future second-rounders in their offer, all of which will convey after LeBron James figures to retire.
According to Stein, the Nets were hoping to land a first-round pick from the Grizzlies for Finney-Smith, but the Grizzlies wanted to put top-17 protection on it. He added that the Nets also would have been forced to take on additional salary and send a second-round pick or two to the Grizzlies in the Finney-Smith deal.
Earlier this month, the Nets also traded Dennis Schröder to the Golden State Warriors for an expiring contract (De'Anthony Melton) and three-second round picks.
However, they told potential suitors dating back to last season that they wanted a first-round pick for Schröder or Finney-Smith, according to Stein.
Their inability to land one for either player might provide hints about the trade landscape under the league's new collective bargaining agreement.
Finney-Smith and Schröder aren't the only notable rotation players who've been flipped for multiple second-round picks rather than a first-rounder since the new CBA went into effect ahead of the 2023-24 season.
At last year's trade deadline, the Philadelphia 76ers traded three second-rounders to acquire Buddy Hield in a three-team deal. The Phoenix Suns did the same for Royce O'Neale.
The Chicago Bulls wanted three second-round picks for Andre Drummond, according to Michael Scotto of HoopsHype, and the Sixers "believed they had a trade done" to acquire him. However, the Bulls "pulled out of talks hours before the deadline," which caused the Sixers to pivot to Hield. Drummond wound up signing with the Sixers in free agency this past offseason, leaving the Bulls empty-handed.
The Bulls' experience with Drummond might have been a cautionary tale for the Nets. Schröder is set to become an unrestricted free agent this offseason, while Finney-Smith could join him by declining his $15.4 million player option for the 2025-26 season. Rather than risk losing either for nothing by holding firm on their asking price of a first-round pick, the Nets caved and landed six second-round picks instead.
Teams might be more reticent to part ways with first-round picks because of the new CBA, which features punishing restrictions for the league's most expensive rosters. Teams above the first and second aprons have fewer avenues to add talent via trades and free agency, so the cost-controlled nature of rookie-scale contracts should be particularly appealing.
The new CBA also made second-round picks more valuable by introducing a new exception that allows above-the-cap teams to sign second-rounders to three- or four-year contracts without using an exception. That might have made teams more open to settling for multiple second-round picks, particularly if first-rounders aren't as likely to change hands.
Since the new CBA went into effect, only a handful of first-round picks have changed hands outside of star trades. The contract value also influencing how much draft capital teams are willing to part with. The New York Knicks gave up five first-rounders to land Mikal Bridges, who is on a bargain four-year, $90.9 million contract, but they didn't part ways with a single first-round pick for Karl-Anthony Towns, who is in the first year of a four-year, $220.4 million supermax deal.
The Mavericks did give up Grant Williams, Seth Curry, and a 2027 first-rounder to land P.J. Washington at last year's trade deadline, although the Charlotte Hornets also sent them two second-round picks in that deal. The Mavs also traded a 2028 first-round pick swap to the Oklahoma City Thunder for a 2024 first-rounder, which they flipped with Richaun Holmes to acquire Daniel Gafford. That pair of moves helped them go on an unexpected run to last year's NBA Finals.
The Mavericks' aggressiveness ahead of last year's deadline might inspire a wave of imitators this season, but not every team is lucky enough to have a generational star like Luka Dončić. The Lakers are making a win-now push with LeBron in the twilight of his career, although they've been reluctant to part ways with their distant first-rounders. The Golden State Warriors may feel that same reticence with Stephen Curry and Draymond Green in their mid-30s.
A number of title hopefuls have already traded away years' worth of first-round picks, further slowing the trade market. The Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks each have only one first-rounder (2031) that they can trade this season. The Minnesota Timberwolves can only trade a 2028 first-round pick swap, along with a protected 2025 first-rounder from the Detroit Pistons. The New York Knicks have a protected 2025 first-round pick from the Washington Wizards, but they can otherwise offer only 2026 and 2030 first-round swaps.
The Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets, and San Antonio Spurs are hoarding multiple future first-round picks from other teams, but all three aren't likely to make a big splash at this year's trade deadline. That could gum up the trade market at large, particularly for teams searching for multiple first-round picks.
The Nets and Portland Trail Blazers could be swing teams in that regard. The Nets reportedly want multiple first-round picks for Cam Johnson, according to Stein. The Blazers set a similar price for Jerami Grant over the summer, per Jovan Buha of The Athletic. It's unclear whether either will find any teams willing to meet that asking price.
Meanwhile, the rebuilding Wizards figure to listen to offers on veterans such as Kyle Kuzma, Jonas Valančiūnas, and Malcolm Brogdon. However, Brooklyn's inability to land a first-rounder for Finney-Smith likely won't help the Wizards fetch one for any one of that trio.
If title hopefuls know they're headed for a late first-round pick this season, they might be more willing to part with it for win-now help. Otherwise, the Finney-Smith trade could be an early signal that it might be tough for sellers to fetch the first-round draft capital they're hoping to acquire.