A leaked internal U.S. assessment suggests that Israeli officials had already expressed doubts about the Lebanese State’s ability to disarm Hezbollah even before Israel launched an aerial campaign against the group earlier this week, according to a report published Wednesday by The Guardian.

The report cited a U.S. embassy cable indicating that Israeli officials had warned Washington that Hezbollah was rebuilding its military capabilities faster than the Lebanese armed forces could dismantle them. Israeli officials also reportedly told U.S. counterparts that neither Beirut nor Damascus could be relied upon to contain the threat along Israel’s northern borders.

The embassy cable said Israeli officials had largely lost confidence that the Lebanese State would ever move decisively against Hezbollah. According to the internal report, Israel “harbours major doubts Hezbollah will agree to give up its weapons” and questions the Lebanese government’s “commitment to confront Hezbollah to take control of all Lebanese territory.”

Despite a ceasefire reached in November 2024, Iranian financial support was still reaching Hezbollah “through Turkey and elsewhere,” the cable said. It added that the Israel Defense Forces had already been compelled “to pick up military attacks on Hezbollah as a result.”

The cable, dated February 27, was sent to Washington one day before the United States and Israel launched joint airstrikes on Iran. 

According to the document, Israeli officials also voiced skepticism about Syria’s new leadership, questioning whether the government could control its own security forces. The cable said Israel was “gravely” concerned about the growing presence of the Turkish military in Syria, warning that Ankara’s entrenchment could pose a strategic threat to Israel’s northern frontier.

The report further said Israeli officials accused Turkish authorities of “repeatedly inciting against Israel in Syria,” even while Israeli and Turkish national security officials maintained de-confliction arrangements designed to prevent clashes. The cable suggested that Ankara was pursuing a dual-track approach—privately managing relations with Israel while simultaneously expanding its military footprint in Syria in ways that could undermine Israeli security.

The document had been prepared as a background briefing for U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio ahead of a planned trip to Israel that was later canceled. It was written under the authority of the U.S. ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee.

On Syria, Israeli officials told U.S. embassy staff they doubted President Ahmed al-Sharaa had both the “ability and willingness to control his security forces.” They also reiterated what the internal report described as “grave” concerns over the expanding Turkish military presence in Syria, warning that it could evolve into a strategic threat to Israel.