After nine months of low-scale conflict, Israel and the Iran-backed Lebanese movement Hezbollah are on the brink of a full-scale war.

Despite efforts by the United States and the international community to pursue diplomatic solutions, tensions remain high. If war erupts, Israel will confront a much stronger adversary in Hezbollah than it did with Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Israel and the Lebanese militant group have been engaged in ongoing exchanges of fire since October 8, one day after Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel, which prompted Israeli retaliation against Gaza.

The recent spike in missile activity between the two and increasingly heated rhetoric have heightened fears of a full-fledged war. Cross-border violence is intensifying, and both parties are preparing for possible large-scale military confrontations.

Tens of thousands of people on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border have been displaced. Israeli strikes have killed more than 330 Hezbollah fighters and around 90 civilians in Lebanon, according to Reuters tallies. Israel says attacks from Lebanon have killed 21 soldiers and 10 civilians.

Many of Hezbollah’s casualties occurred during the almost daily clashes, which involved launching rockets and explosive drones into northern Israel.

These developments raise questions about whether the recent escalations have politically and militarily strengthened Hezbollah or otherwise weakened it.

Perceptions of Hezbollah’s regional influence

Hezbollah’s involvement in the Israel-Hamas war sparked varied reactions across the region. Traditionally seen as a powerful force against Israel, Hezbollah’s participation was perceived by some as a demonstration of strength and solidarity with Palestinian resistance. Others feared it could plunge Lebanon, already on its knees, into a deadly war and cause regional escalation.

Hezbollah, founded in 1982 during Lebanon’s civil war, initially aimed to end Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon, which it achieved in 2000. The Shia Muslim group is part of the Axis of Resistance, a coalition of Iranian-backed armed groups.

In 2006, an all-out war broke out between Israel and Hezbollah when the latter’s fighters crossed the Israel-Lebanon border, captured two Israeli soldiers and killed three others. This led to a month-long conflict marked by intense fighting and widespread destruction. Israel launched a massive military campaign to weaken Hezbollah’s military capabilities, while the Lebanese group fired thousands of rockets into northern Israel.

After the 2006 war and prior to the outbreak of the Syrian conflict, Hezbollah’s military focus remained on Israel. Both sides, wary of another war, maintained a delicate balance akin to mutually assured devastation.

Over time, Hezbollah has evolved into Lebanon’s most powerful political actor and the most well-equipped military force supported by Iran in the Middle East. A 2018 report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies called it “the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor.”

The group’s military capabilities have surged, and it played a significant role in the Syrian civil war, supporting President Bashar al-Assad. It has also helped train Iran-backed militias in Syria and Iraq, as well as Yemen’s Houthis. Its actions often strained relations with other Arab states.

“Hezbollah has demonstrated advancements in military technology, showcasing precision-guided loitering munitions and anti-tank guided rockets that represent a significant leap forward in tactics and capabilities,” Oubai Shahbandar, American defense analyst and former Middle East policy advisor to the Pentagon, told Al Arabiya English.

“Hezbollah strategically aligns its actions in the conflict with Israel according to directives from Iran’s Quds Force leadership, maintaining a deeply rooted hierarchical structure. The organization’s measured attacks on Israel since October 7 are meticulously orchestrated based on Tehran’s strategic imperatives rather than broader Arab popularity.”

Impact of Israel’s targeted assassinations against Hezbollah

Israel has intensified its strategy of targeting senior Hezbollah commanders, aiming to cripple the organization’s leadership and operational capabilities. These targeted killings might have affected Hezbollah, but the extent to which they have weakened the organization remains a subject of debate. Hezbollah has historically shown resilience, often maintaining its operational tempo.

“In the short term, assassinations have an impact on Hezbollah’s operations and the morale of its fighters. Yet, being a highly adaptable and learning organization with a deep leadership bench, it will overcome these challenges,” Randa Slim, senior fellow and director of Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, told Al Arabiya English.

Meanwhile, Shahbandar believes that “Israel’s strikes against senior Hezbollah operatives, who have been working hand in hand with Iran’s Quds Force commanders for decades, are taking a toll on the group.”

Several high-ranking Hezbollah commanders were killed in the hostilities, including Abbas Raad, Wissam al-Tawil, Taleb Abdallah and Mohammed Nasser, who were instrumental in directing operations in the south. Saleh al-Arouri, deputy head of Hamas, was also killed while attending a meeting in Beirut.

Hezbollah began suspecting that Israel was targeting its fighters by tracking their cell phones and monitoring video feeds from security cameras installed on buildings in border communities, Reuters reported citing sources.

In a televised address on February 13, Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah cautioned his supporters about the risks posed by their phones, suggesting they dispose of them by breaking, burying, or locking them in an iron box.

Yesterday, an Israeli strike in Syria killed a former personal bodyguard of Nasrallah.

Strategic postures

Hezbollah has repeatedly said that it will not stop its attacks unless a ceasefire is achieved in Gaza. It has labeled its campaign as a “support front” for the Palestinians.

Earlier this week, Gallant vowed that Israel would continue to fight Hezbollah in the north regardless of a ceasefire deal with Hamas in the strip, according to Israeli media. He insisted that the two arenas were “separate.”

Hopes for an Israel-Hamas ceasefire and hostage agreement diminished this week as Israel imposed conditions on the deal, and Hamas cautioned that ongoing Israeli actions in Gaza could threaten the negotiations.

Israeli forces pressed their offensive in north and central Gaza on Wednesday, hours after an airstrike on a tent encampment that killed more than two dozen people. The airstrike hit the tents of displaced families outside a school in the town of Abassan east of Khan Younis in southern Gaza, killing at least 29 people, most of them women and children, Palestinian medical officials stated.

In its conflict with Hezbollah, Slim believes that Israel has not achieved escalation dominance.

“Israel’s communication strategy towards Hezbollah comprises two primary components: issuing threats of escalation into full-scale war and demonstrating a preference for diplomatic solutions to manage the hostilities,” she explained. “The objectives of this approach are threefold: to deter Hezbollah, to reassure their domestic constituencies that they are pursuing a resolution through both military and non-military means and to signal to Hezbollah their interest in achieving a political solution.”

Gallant mentioned that Israel prefers a diplomatic solution to the conflict with Hezbollah. Nasrallah similarly reiterated that he does not seek war, though he emphasized that he is prepared for and unafraid of one.

“So far, both Israel and Hezbollah have managed to calibrate their respective military responses just below the threshold of total war,” Shahbandar said. “They remain ensnared in a precarious cycle of low-intensity conflict. Despite neither side desiring full-scale conventional warfare, the prolonged duration of this ‘war between wars’ raises the risk of the worst-case scenario materializing.”