Hezbollah’s Game of Chicken

The game of chicken, iconic in many motion pictures, involves two cars driving directly toward each other. The first driver to swerve and avoid a collision loses the test of courage and earns the title of “chicken.” A similar game unfolded over the weekend when Israel and Hezbollah tested each other’s resolve in the ongoing military exchanges that will mark their first anniversary in October.

Yet, as these events have shown, Hezbollah is no match – politically or militarily – for Israel’s war machine. Consequently, Hezbollah has been branded as “chicken” and ridiculed by the public, including the majority of Lebanese citizens.

As dawn broke last Sunday, the Israeli military launched a series of preemptive strikes against multiple targets in Lebanon, neutralizing several of Hezbollah’s launch pads. These pads were reportedly about to launch a punitive strike against Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Hezbollah’s top military commander, Fuad Shukr, who was killed by an Israeli airstrike deep in the southern suburbs of Beirut – Hezbollah’s stronghold and presumed sanctuary. Over the past few weeks, Hezbollah’s anticipated response had many on edge, fearing that Iran and Hezbollah might carry out their persistent threats to attack Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities, potentially dragging the entire region into a full-scale war. Yet, these threats proved as empty as Iran’s promise to wipe out Israel in “less than 8 minutes.”

Iran and its proxy militias have relied heavily on propaganda and what they believe to be psychological warfare. Their recent tactics included Hezbollah releasing an edited and highly theatrical video, supposedly showing an elaborate network of tunnels capable of accommodating large trucks mounted with precision missiles. This facility was named “Imad 4,” after their founding leader, Imad Mughniyeh, who was assassinated in Damascus in February 2013. Despite their claims of possessing lethal and accurate weapons, Hezbollah resorted to firing 320 Soviet-era Katyusha rockets and a few drones, most of which were shot down by Israel’s Iron Dome, while Israel managed to carry out preemptive strikes.

In a televised speech hours after the Israeli-Hezbollah exchange of fire, Hassan Nasrallah, the party’s Secretary-General, claimed that 320 rockets hit several high-value military targets, including the Galilot base, a central intelligence hub housing Unit 8200, located 110 kilometers from the Lebanese border and only a mile away from Tel Aviv. However, the only confirmed target reported in the media was Hezbollah’s successful strike on an Israeli poultry farm. This incident was widely ridiculed, with the public making jokes at Hezbollah’s expense – something the organization’s humorless demeanor clearly disdains.

Joking aside, the ongoing Israeli-Iranian skirmishes have only served as a reminder that, even if the Biden administration attempts to frame these events as diplomacy by allowing both sides to claim victory within prearranged limits, Iran and its proxies have proven incapable of holding their own. Ironically, Iran and Hezbollah continue to wager on Israeli and American democracy to weather their current predicament, believing that the upcoming US elections will result in Kamala Harris being elected, and that a supposedly disgruntled Israeli public will oust Benjamin Netanyahu, thereby resolving their problems. Even if these scenarios come to pass, they will not necessarily translate into immediate gains for Iran and its various proxies. Israel, under any leadership, will not allow Iran to encircle it or continue using its assortment of proxies and their outdated arsenal to threaten its security – a concern that any future US administration, whether Democratic or Republican, will not shy away from addressing.

Nasrallah’s latest speech was the rant of a delusional leader with an arsenal that likely doesn’t exist, coupled with a God complex that underscores his perceived infallibility and that of his group. More importantly, it reflects his delusion that the so-called holy principles he claims to uphold are shared by the majority of Lebanese people, whom he has effectively taken hostage. Nasrallah wants to play chicken, but he may have forgotten that, in the past, he hijacked and crashed Lebanon during such escapades, leaving him with the “chicken” title even before he turns the ignition.