Israel’s assassination of senior Hezbollah commander Haytham Ali Tabatabai has thrust the militant group into a critical phase of uncertainty, with questions emerging over who will assume command of its sensitive military apparatus. Tabatabai was killed in a precision airstrike on Beirut’s southern suburbs, marking the most senior Hezbollah loss since a November 2024 ceasefire aimed at ending more than a year of cross-border hostilities. 

According to Al-Arabiya and Al-Hadath, citing sources familiar with Hezbollah’s inner workings, Mohammad Haydar is the leading candidate to succeed Tabatabai due to his extensive field experience. Tabatabai had played a central role in rehabilitating and strengthening Hezbollah’s military capabilities after the successive strikes the group suffered during last year’s war. Haydar, meanwhile, has overseen military operations in southern Lebanon, is a permanent member of Hezbollah’s “Jihad Council,” and has survived multiple assassination attempts, including one during last year’s conflict. He also served as a Hezbollah member of Lebanon’s parliament from 2005 to 2009.

Hezbollah’s so-called Jihad Council, or military council, has sustained devastating blows from Israeli operations targeting the group’s founding generation of military leaders. Three senior members were killed in Beirut’s southern suburbs alone. The council oversees Hezbollah’s military and security activities and reports directly to the group’s Shura Council. Composed of senior commanders, the council operates in close coordination with Iranian officials, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Military expert, retired Brig. Gen. Fadi Daoud, told Al Arabiya/Al-Hadath that Israel’s “decapitation strategy” is aimed at undermining Hezbollah’s command-and-control structure. He explained that rebuilding the group’s military capacity is a prolonged process, involving absorbing the blow, identifying operational weaknesses, restoring equipment and mechanisms, rebuilding human leadership capacity, and re-establishing operational cohesion; a process that can take about a year.

Daoud added that appointing successors depends on both the military rank of the replacement and their personal attributes.

“Hezbollah is organically tied to the IRGC, so replacements come directly from Iran, either from the IRGC itself or selected from within Hezbollah,” he said.

Daoud noted divisions within the party between members who support confronting Israel and those who recognize the magnitude of losses, but he emphasized that any decision to retaliate ultimately rests with Iran’s Supreme Leader.

Ali al-Amin, editor-in-chief of the Janoubia news site, observed that the precision strike exposed Hezbollah’s security vulnerabilities, eroding the secrecy the group had long prided itself on.

Al-Amin said the group will appoint replacements, but the new military council is expected to face significant operational constraints, making it more cautious and less capable of initiative. He argued that Tabatabai’s killing contradicted Hezbollah’s public claims about restoring military capabilities, underscoring that the group’s leadership remains exposed to Israeli operations.

Much of Hezbollah’s older leadership has now been removed, either through targeted assassinations or other factors, leaving a younger cohort in command. Al-Amin emphasized that Hezbollah remains subordinate to Iran, which could leverage the group’s military infrastructure in broader U.S.-Iran negotiations.

The group has a history of leadership losses: Imad Mughniyeh headed the military council until his assassination in February 2008, followed by Mustafa Badreddine, killed in May 2016. Ibrahim Aqil, former commander of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force, was killed in an Israeli strike on September 20, 2024. Fouad Shukr, a founding member and senior military adviser to Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in Beirut on July 30, 2024, and Ali Karki, responsible for Hezbollah’s operations in southern Lebanon, was also killed in an Israeli strike targeting Hezbollah’s leadership.

Among the surviving members of the military council, Mohammad Haydar is considered the most likely to succeed Tabatabai. Other key figures include Talal Hamiyah, head of Hezbollah’s external operations unit, and Khalil Harb, a senior adviser to Nasrallah who previously oversaw operations against Israel.