As the ceasefire in Lebanon took effect, life began returning to the streets, highways, and neighborhoods of the nation. Heavy traffic on the Beirut-South and Beirut-Bekaa highways and renewed activity in the southern suburbs of Beirut signaled the first steps toward normalcy after over 66 days of Israeli aggression. Yet, beneath the surface of these physical changes lies a deeper, persistent unease.

Fear remains a dominant force, rooted in repeated Israeli violations in southern Lebanon, the broader ramifications of the war, economic strain, and the daunting cost of reconstruction. This collective anxiety is manifesting in significant changes to the economic and social behaviors of Lebanese citizens.

Before the ceasefire, the fear of war escalation drove many Lebanese to adapt their daily habits drastically. Families reduced their meals, altered grocery-buying patterns, and cut general household spending. Despite the current truce, these austerity measures persist, reflecting a cautious approach toward an uncertain future.

Hoda Nasreddine, a displaced resident who recently returned to the Bekaa region, shared her struggles to resume pre-war economic activities.

“The scale of destruction is immense. We need to cut unnecessary expenses to rebuild what was destroyed,” she told Al-Modon, adding that, during displacement, she adapted to buying food in single portions.

Even now, back in her village, she continues to purchase fruits and vegetables one at a time instead of by the kilogram.

Such shifts, especially in food consumption, highlight the economic strain on households. Families, including those from the middle class, remain wary of expanding their food budgets.

Mounira Turk, a 65-year-old homemaker, revealed that she has adopted a strict austerity plan, cutting back on numerous grocery items.

“The Israeli strikes have made me retain some liquidity, fearing the war might return,” Turk told Al-Modon.

The reduction in food purchases has a ripple effect on businesses. The head of the Lebanese Poultry Syndicate reported a 25% drop in the consumption of chicken and eggs. Beyond food, other essential expenditures, such as clothing and footwear, have also disappeared from many household budgets.

Broader Economic Consequences

According to Al-Modon report, Lebanon is grappling with several pressing challenges on a macroeconomic level: 

1. Decline in Wages

Even before the war, wages in Lebanon were insufficient against the backdrop of skyrocketing inflation. The conflict further exacerbated this, particularly for day laborers and weekly wage earners. Akram Husseini, a mechanic, saw his income dwindle during the heightened military operations in the southern suburbs of Beirut. For over three weeks, he had no income, and even after reopening his workshop, he now earns half his pre-war wage due to reduced demand for car repairs.

Hundreds of young Lebanese workers, particularly those in industrial zones targeted by Israeli strikes, face similar fates. Many businesses remain shuttered, unable to resume operations due to severe damage.

2. Disruption of Productive Activities

Industrial and production facilities in bombed areas have suffered immensely. In every war, such establishments face closure—partial or complete. Reports indicate that over 250,000 businesses have shut down due to the recent conflict, a number expected to rise as reconstruction costs mount.

While businesses in unaffected areas have increased activity to compensate for shortages, this uneven recovery risks widening economic disparities between regions, potentially destabilizing Lebanon’s industrial landscape.

3. Rise of a Cash-Based Economy

Trust in Lebanon’s banking system, already eroded by the 2019 financial crisis, has deteriorated further. Many Lebanese fear another scenario in which their dollar savings are frozen. Employees now withdraw their salaries immediately, preferring to keep cash on hand for emergencies.

Ali Haidar, a private sector employee, explained how his behavior has changed.

“Despite my mistrust in banks, I used to deposit part of my salary for emergencies. But this war has led me to withdraw my entire salary in cash to prepare for unforeseen circumstances.”

4. Delayed Payment of Fees and Expenses

Many Lebanese are delaying the payment of taxes, school fees, and other public dues. Ali Haidar, for instance, has withheld his children’s tuition fees, uncertain whether the truce will hold or schools will close again.

“With the current uncertainty, I’ve decided to hold onto the fees until there’s a final agreement in southern Lebanon,” he said.

Similarly, Samir Raad has postponed paying taxes, municipal dues, and other obligations, waiting for greater clarity about the country’s political and security future.