Lebanon’s winter cereal production for 2024 is estimated at 120,000 tonnes, approximately 34 percent below the five-year average, according to the Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) conducted in July by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

The decline is attributed to adverse weather conditions, including a spring drought, a May heatwave, and an outbreak of yellow rust disease, which significantly impacted crop yields during the critical flowering and grain-filling stages.

Despite above-average rainfall between November 2023 and February 2024, which initially improved soil moisture and favored early crop development, unfavorable weather patterns in the subsequent months severely affected production. The planting of 2025 winter cereals was also delayed until December 2024 due to the intensification of conflict, which restricted farmers’ access to fields. Below-average precipitation levels in Baalbek-Hermel and the Bekaa Valley last November and December, combined with forecasted drought conditions in February and March 2025, are expected to further impact yields.

Lebanon’s protracted economic crisis continues to weigh heavily on the agriculture sector, the report also noted. Since the financial collapse in 2019, access to credit has been severely limited, forcing farmers to cover expenses in cash, predominantly in U.S. dollars. The high dependency on imported agricultural inputs—including seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel—makes the sector highly vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations and rising production costs.

Wheat import requirements for the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are projected at 670,000 tonnes, around 4 percent above the five-year average. This increase reflects the decline in domestic production. The ability to meet these import needs depends largely on the availability of foreign currency, which has been negatively impacted by the ongoing conflict, slowing down the pace of imports.

The aftermath of the Beirut Port explosion in August 2020 continues to pose challenges for food security. The destruction of government-operated grain silos, which previously stored wheat reserves for approximately six months of national consumption, has left the country vulnerable to supply shocks. In response, importers and millers now maintain inventories that cover only one to two months of national consumption.

The escalation of conflict since September 2024 has further disrupted Lebanon’s economy, affecting trade, tourism, and agricultural production. Increased displacement, infrastructure damage, and limited humanitarian access have compounded food insecurity for both Lebanese citizens and refugees.

According to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), approximately 1.65 million people are expected to face high acute food insecurity between December 2024 and March 2025. The conflict has led to widespread agricultural land damage, worsened economic conditions, and destroyed productive assets, increasing the urgent need for assistance to help agricultural households and displaced families restore their livelihoods.

Despite the stabilization of Lebanon’s national currency in 2024, retail food prices remain high following years of hyperinflation, making inflation a primary driver of food insecurity. In November 2024, the annual food inflation rate stood at 23.2 percent, a sharp decline from the 220 percent recorded in the previous year. This drop is largely attributed to the unofficial adoption of U.S. dollar pricing, which began in 2023.

The monthly cost of the Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB) surged by 17 percent in December 2024 compared to the same month in 2023, reaching LBP 40.6 million (USD 449) for a family of five. This increase has significantly weakened households’ purchasing power, further exacerbating food insecurity.

As Lebanon grapples with worsening economic conditions and ongoing conflict, the outlook for 2025 remains bleak. The combination of reduced agricultural productivity, high import dependency, and inflation-driven food insecurity underscores the need for sustained humanitarian assistance, the report stressed. Strengthening cross-border coordination, improving access to financial resources for farmers, and enhancing food security programs will be critical to mitigating the crisis and ensuring the resilience of Lebanon’s agriculture sector.