In a world increasingly defined by trade wars, tariffs, and import restrictions, Lebanon’s heavy reliance on a narrow set of export markets is raising concerns among economists and policymakers.
Even countries not directly involved in global trade conflicts cannot escape the ripple effects on supply chains. When major markets close their doors or impose new restrictions, goods often seek alternative destinations, sometimes at lower prices, creating competition for domestic products. Tariffs and import controls can also be applied broadly, affecting a wide range of countries.
Lebanon’s export pattern is highly concentrated. According to Lebanese Customs data for the first seven months of 2025, Switzerland accounted for nearly 23% of the country’s exports, followed by the United Arab Emirates at 17%, while Egypt trailed at just 4.25%.
This means that nearly 40% of Lebanon’s exports go to just two destinations, which makes the country highly vulnerable. Any disruption in these markets or changes to their import policies could have an immediate impact on the country’s total exports and trade balance.
The concentration is tied to the nature of Lebanon’s exports. Precious metals, stones, and jewelry account for around 37% of total exports.
However, the issue runs deeper: Lebanon’s exports are not only concentrated geographically but also economically, being focused largely on one specific category of goods. This means that any downturn in global demand for precious metals and jewelry would directly impact Lebanon’s total exports and widen its trade deficit.
Interestingly, Lebanon imports about $1.75 billion worth of precious metals, jewelry, and gemstones each year, while exporting roughly $789 million worth of the same. This pattern suggests that many Lebanese firms import raw or semi-finished precious materials, then re-export them, often after minimal processing, to low-tariff markets. While this sustains trade, it contributes little to local job creation or broader economic development.
Moreover, the global spotlight on money laundering and financial crimes linked to precious metals and gemstones could lead to tighter regulations, potentially limiting market access and further affecting Lebanon’s trade figures.
These realities underscore a key imperative: Lebanon must diversify its exports, which in turn requires a broader diversification of the country’s productive sectors.
On the import side, Lebanon's sources are far more diversified. China tops the list at 11.65%, followed by Greece (8.52%), Egypt (7%), Turkey (6.8%) and the UAE (6.69%). Together, the top three sources make up just over 27% of imports, reflecting a geographically diversified supply base across Asia, Europe, and North Africa.
Yet, despite this diversification, Lebanon’s trade deficit continues to grow. By the end of July, it had reached $9.34 billion, up from $8.31 billion in the same period last year, largely due to a 15% rise in imports.