On the eve of the anniversary of “Fajr al-Joroud,” the military operation in which the Lebanese Army scored a decisive victory against jihadist groups, securing the country’s entire 10,452 square kilometers, Lebanon’s eastern and northern borders are once again witnessing suspicious movements.

The activity has prompted an exceptional security alert, particularly after reports circulated of an internal army document warning that extremist militants stationed inside Syrian territory near the border are plotting to kidnap Lebanese soldiers in the Bekaa and the North, with the aim of exchanging them for Islamist detainees in Lebanese prisons. Army command has ordered maximum vigilance, reinforced patrols, and immediate reporting of any suspicious activity along the border.

The Lebanese Army is therefore on full alert to counter any potential threat. According to available information, coordination with Syria on joint security and military matters remains in place. But the question is whether Lebanon faces an imminent threat that could trigger another major military campaign.

Retired Brigadier General Fadi Daoud, who led the “Fajr al-Joroud” battle, told Kataeb.org that while tensions along the Syrian border are undeniably real, clashes among rival groups on both sides are more likely to produce sporadic incidents than a broad conflict requiring a large-scale military operation.

"Launching a large-scale military operation that shifts the overall dynamics is one thing, while sporadic and localized incidents are another,” Daoud said, stressing that the current regional and international climate is not conducive to a confrontation on the scale of the 2017 campaign against ISIS.

“Had it not been for the regional circumstances that allowed ISIS to emerge and spread from Iraq to Syria, the threat would never have reached Lebanon,” Daoud explained. “Today, those conditions no longer exist. Major international powers are pushing in a different direction, with a global consensus pressing for de-escalation in the region, at least along Lebanon’s eastern frontier. These tensions do not serve the policies of the big powers in the region. As long as their interest lies in calm and stability, the situation will remain under control.”

Still, Daoud cautioned against complacency.

“There is never full reassurance in military matters. The army must always take precautions against any possible threat. This is its mission. We cannot use the possibility of danger to justify measures taken outside the framework of the state’s official institutions.”

On the prospect of deploying an international force similar to UNIFIL along Lebanon’s border with Syria, Daoud was dismissive.

“Personally, I am against the idea. For one, a decision has already been taken to curtail UNIFIL’s mission in the south. So how can its mandate be expanded to the eastern frontier? No matter how difficult the circumstances, it is the responsibility of Lebanon’s security institutions to protect the country, and Lebanese citizens should volunteer in these institutions to fulfill their national duty.”