"The euphoria has faded, and reality has set in." This phrase best captures the current state of the Axis of Resistance, which is beginning to realize that the days of maneuvering around international laws are over. There is no longer room for evasion or delaying obligations that have now become unavoidable.

Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters that the group considers its weapons a "red line" that is "not up for negotiation" and "will not be exchanged for reconstruction or humanitarian aid." This stance was soon echoed in Lebanon by Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, who insisted that Lebanon would reject any attempt to tie reconstruction aid to political or military conditions—whether related to Hezbollah’s weapons north of the Litani River or any other domestic issue.

This alignment in rhetoric extended beyond Berri and Hamas, reaching Ali Akbar Velayati, senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader on international affairs. Velayati reaffirmed that Hezbollah would continue its resistance with full force, asserting that "the majority of the Lebanese people support it and stand by the resistance."

A Calculated Move from Tehran?

In an interview with Kataeb.org, retired Brigadier General Yaareb Sakher suggested that Berri’s position is a strategic attempt to pressure and complicate Lebanese Army Commander General Joseph Aoun’s stance at the Arab summit in Cairo.

"It appears that Tehran has issued its directives on this matter," he noted.

"Berri’s statement, rejecting any link between Hezbollah’s disarmament and the receipt of aid, aligns with Hamas’s position and reflects Iran’s increasingly hardline stance. This suggests that Iran’s reformist camp has been pushed aside while the hardliners ramp up their rhetoric—not just on regional conflicts but also on nuclear policy," Sakher explained. "Iran appears to be shifting its nuclear doctrine from civilian to military, raising the stakes in its confrontation with the West. This escalation signals that Iran’s attempts to soften U.S. policy have failed. With the Trump administration, there are no half-measures—only strict conditions for Iran to abandon its nuclear program. Instead of yielding, Iran has responded with defiance, and now, its regional proxies are amplifying their confrontational rhetoric."

Sakher also pointed to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent statement that Israel is preparing for war on "seven fronts," suggesting the possibility of renewed military conflict across multiple arenas this spring.

"The U.S. has reportedly given Lebanon a 60-day deadline to disarm Hezbollah—or risk losing all aid."

According to Sakher, Israel—emboldened by American support, the recent approval of 2,000-pound bunker-buster bombs, and renewed political backing—is seizing the moment. Israel’s recent military gains in southern Syria and its occupation of five positions in southern Lebanon suggest a broader strategy: securing territorial continuity between these areas. The ultimate goal, he argued, is to secure the Golan Heights and Mount Hermon to establish an aerial corridor that would allow Israel to strike Iran from central Iraq.

"Preparations for this Israeli operation seem to be underway for the spring," he cautioned. "It could potentially coincide with military actions on other fronts, including Lebanon, under the pretext that the Lebanese government has failed to disarm Hezbollah north of the Litani. If Lebanon does not act, Israel might take matters into its own hands—coordinating its moves with ongoing operations in southern Syria and targeted assassinations elsewhere."

Sakher also highlighted a recent warning from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which reported that "Iran continues to enhance its enriched uranium capabilities, with its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium growing at an alarming rate." He predicted that Israel would use this report as justification to accelerate military action before Iran reaches nuclear weapons capability.

A Dangerous Denial of Reality

Meanwhile, many observers are baffled by the Axis of Resistance’s insistence on maintaining the status quo and its apparent refusal to acknowledge shifting regional dynamics. This approach, they argue, only strengthens Israel’s justification for maintaining its military presence in southern Lebanon—potentially leading to yet another devastating war. The key difference this time? "Hezbollah’s military capabilities are not what they once were."

Critics are also questioning Berri’s stance, asking: "Who signed the ceasefire agreement and committed to its full terms? Who agreed to fully implement UN Resolutions 1701 and 1559 across all Lebanese territory? Was it not Hezbollah that entrusted Berri with the negotiations?"

As tensions rise and regional strategies take shape, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: the Axis of Resistance may have run out of room to maneuver.