Lebanon's deepening economic crisis and escalating fears of conflict are leading to a noticeable decline in birth rates, a trend observed by health professionals and researchers alike. This shift in demographics is being closely examined as the country grapples with mounting challenges.

Dr. Miled Rizk, a gynecologist at Middle East Hospital and Saydet Zgharta University Medical Center, shared with This Is Beirut website that his practice has seen a dramatic reduction in deliveries.

"Five years ago, I used to deliver around 100 babies a year; now, that number has dropped to just 30," Dr. Rizk noted, adding that very few of his patients are having a second child, and families with more than two children have become nearly non-existent.

Lebanon's population growth has significantly slowed in recent years, the report pointed out. According to figures provided to This Is Beirut by Mohammad Shamseddine, a researcher at Information International, the country saw an average increase of 38,203 births annually from 2020 to 2023. These numbers show a stark decrease compared to the 63,523 births per year recorded between 2016 and 2019.  

Marriage rates have dropped by 13.3% from 2016 to 2023, while divorce rates have risen by 7.7% during the same period. Additionally, migration has played a crucial role in population decline, with approximately 468,000 people leaving Lebanon between 2016 and 2023.

As of 2024, Lebanon's population stands at 5.8 million, with approximately 1.8 million living abroad. Of those who have emigrated, about 70% are young people, contributing to an increasingly aging population within Lebanon. Shamseddine warns that if current trends continue, Lebanon could face a severe demographic crisis within the next decade, with elderly individuals comprising up to 50% of the population. This shift would result in a shrinking working-age population and an increased reliance on foreign labor.

Shamseddine also highlighted a concerning trend among Syrian refugees, who have higher birth rates compared to Lebanese citizens. If this disparity continues, Lebanon might face a scenario where the number of Syrian residents equals or surpasses the Lebanese population, placing additional strain on the country's social and economic systems.

Former Finance Minister Damianos Kattar explained to This Is Beirut that several economic factors are contributing to Lebanon's declining birth rates:

1. Housing Issues: Kattar noted that the inability to buy homes and the skyrocketing cost of rent have created significant barriers. The lack of subsidized loans since 2019 has exacerbated the problem, leaving many couples struggling with high rental costs.

2. Education Costs: With the public education system deteriorating, families are opting to have fewer children to ensure those they do have receive quality education.

3. Rising Costs: Increased fuel prices, limited public transportation, and high costs for healthcare and vaccines are placing additional financial burdens on families.

4. Public Sector Collapse: The decline of the public sector, which once provided job security for many Lebanese, has made it more difficult for families to start and sustain.