It was 13 years in the making, but in the end, it took less than 13 days for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime to fall.

In the early hours of Sunday morning, opposition forces stormed into the capital Damascus, declaring Syria liberated from al-Assad’s rule.

Al-Assad and his family have fled to Moscow where they were granted asylum, Russian news agencies reported on Sunday, citing a Kremlin source.

The stunning collapse of over 53 years of the al-Assad dynasty marks a seismic moment, 13 years after Syrians first rose in peaceful protests against a government that responded with violence, plunging the country into a brutal civil war.

Just a week ago, the regime still held control over large parts of the country. So, how did everything unravel so rapidly?

When did it all begin?

On November 27, a coalition of opposition fighters launched a significant offensive against pro-government forces.

The initial assault targeted the front lines between opposition-controlled Idlib and the neighboring Aleppo governorate.
Within three days, opposition forces seized Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city.

Their lightning advance continued with the capture of Hama on December 5, a strategic central city they never managed to seize before.

Opposition forces then took Homs early on Sunday as they closed in on the capital Damascus.

Who spearheaded the opposition?

Dubbed Operation Deterrence of Aggression, the offensive was carried out by the Military Operations Administration, spearheaded by “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” (HTS) and supported by allied Turkish-backed factions.

HTS, led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, is the most prominent and well-organized group, having controlled Idlib governorate for years prior to this operation.

Other participating groups included the National Front for Liberation, Ahrar al-Sham, Jaish al-Izza, and the Nour al-Din al-Zenki Movement, alongside Turkish-backed factions within the Syrian National Army framework.

‘Unexpected in its entirety’: Why did al-Assad fall so fast?

Syria’s economy, battered by years of war, has been facing severe challenges, with reports suggesting that al-Assad’s regime has been sustaining it through the illicit drug trade of Captagon, a psychoactive amphetamine.

Al-Assad’s popularity plummeted as living conditions deteriorated, affecting not just civilians but also many of his soldiers, most of whom were reluctant to fight on his behalf.

Reports emerged of soldiers and police officers abandoning their posts, surrendering their weapons, and fleeing in anticipation of opposition advances.

Militarily, the al-Assad regime has been fragile for years, heavily dependent on Russian and Iranian support to sustain itself.

Analysts say that with Russia preoccupied by the conflict in Ukraine and Iran, along with its Lebanese ally Hezbollah, weakened by Israeli attacks, Assad was left increasingly isolated.

“This was unexpected in its entirety for the West,” Mick Mulroy, former US Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for the Middle East told Al Arabiya News’ Tom Watson on Global News Tonight.

“It was unexpected, both in its actual genesis and the speed at which it moved to the collapse of the Assad regime,” he added.

Are Syrians happy?

Across Syria on Sunday, jubilant scenes unfolded as crowds gathered to pray in mosques and celebrate in public squares, chanting anti-Assad slogans and honking car horns in unity.

In some locations, people also toppled statues of al-Assad’s father, Hafez, and paraded them across the streets.

Syrians and opposition fighters stormed al-Assad’s presidential palace, joyfully collecting items as souvenirs while celebrating.

Syrian refugees and members of the diaspora abroad also celebrated the regime’s collapse, holding gatherings in cities like London, Utrecht, and Istanbul.

What happened in the ‘Human Slaughterhouse’ – the Sednaya prison?

As Syrian opposition fighters advanced toward Damascus, capturing city after city, they also liberated prisoners from the regime’s infamous detention centers, including the notorious Sednaya prison – nicknamed “Human Slaughterhouse” – known for its brutal torture practices.

Footage has emerged from Sednaya showing opposition forces freeing prisoners, including a small child.

 

 

 

 

 

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Syrians rushed to the infamous “Red Prison” to search for their relatives after fighters breached the facility.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) estimated in January 2021 that 30,000 detainees had been brutally killed in Sednaya prison by the al-Assad regime through torture, abuse, and mass executions since the start of the Syrian civil war.

Amnesty International also reported in February 2017 that between 5,000 and 13,000 people were extrajudicially executed at Sednaya between September 2011 and December 2015.

Over the nearly 14 years of civil war, more than 100,000 people are believed to have disappeared into Syria’s prisons.

How did the world leaders react to al-Assad’s sudden ouster?

European governments have welcomed al-Assad’s departure while urging a rapid return to stability.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in a statement that the end of al-Assad’s rule was “good news,” adding that “what matters now is that law and order are quickly restored in Syria.”

France’s foreign ministry welcomed the fall of the Syrian president, saying “the Syrian people have suffered too much.”
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer also welcomed the end of Assad’s “barbaric regime.”

“We call on all sides to protect civilians and minorities and ensure essential aid can reach the most vulnerable in the coming hours and days,” he said.

US President Joe Biden said Syria is in a period of “risk and uncertainty” and that al-Assad “should be held accountable.”

“It’s a moment of historic opportunity for the long-suffering people of Syria to build a better future for their proud country. It’s also a moment of risk and uncertainty,” Biden said.

What happens next?

What’s next for the Middle Eastern country remains to be seen, according to experts.

Riad Kahwaji, Al Arabiya’s Military and Defense expert, says that the presence of numerous factions in Syria complicates the prospects for a smooth and peaceful transition.

“The more inclusive, the more assuring it will be. The more exclusive, the more violent it could potentially become,” Khawaji told Al Arabiya News’ Tom Watson on Global News Tonight.

President Joe Biden said the US will work with partners and stakeholders in Syria and will also support Syria’s neighbors through the period of transition and will assess the words and actions of opposition groups.

“As we all turn to the question of what comes next, the United States will work with our partners and the stakeholders in Syria to help them seize an opportunity to manage the risk,” he said in his White House address.