U.S. Weighs Three Scenarios to Curb Hezbollah Influence in Lebanon

The Israeli military has begun repositioning its forces along the northern frontier, deploying the Galilee Division 91 to oversee a wide stretch from the Galilee Panhandle to the Mediterranean Sea, amid what officials describe as increased activity by Hezbollah, LBCI reported on Monday, citing an Israeli report. 

According to Israeli defense sources, Division 210 will remain responsible for operations in the Shebaa Farms sector and continue securing the Golan Heights line.

The redeployment comes as Hezbollah's military presence and operations reemerge as a central concern in Israeli security discussions. An Israeli assessment admitted the army has thus far been unable to fully dismantle Hezbollah’s network of tunnels and underground infrastructure, which are believed to span several strategic locations in southern Lebanon.

Tensions along the Lebanon-Israel border have been further heightened by recent geopolitical developments following a regional visit by U.S. President Donald Trump. According to the report, the Lebanese file has regained urgency in Israeli military and intelligence circles, with implications extending beyond the immediate border.

Citing unnamed American sources, the report suggests that President Trump is seeking a deal with Lebanon akin to one allegedly reached with former Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. Washington is reportedly pushing Lebanese President Joseph Aoun to initiate the disarmament of Hezbollah not only in the south—below the Litani River, as mandated by U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701—but also in areas north of it.

The proposed move has sparked concerns about the risk of triggering internal unrest in Lebanon, where Hezbollah remains a dominant political and military actor.

The Israeli analysis outlines three scenarios reportedly under consideration by the Trump administration as it weighs its next steps on Lebanon.

The first envisions replicating the so-called Syrian model, with the United States applying strict conditions on Lebanese officials to prevent domestic escalation that could endanger Israeli security and potentially draw American forces into a broader conflict.

A second option would see Washington exerting direct pressure on Hezbollah from within Lebanon. However, the report warns that this could destabilize the country further, potentially plunging Lebanon into deeper political and economic turmoil.

The third and most severe scenario involves a full withdrawal of U.S. diplomatic efforts to contain tensions between Israel and Lebanon, effectively giving Israel a free hand to act militarily if it deems necessary, without American restraint.