Concerns are mounting as Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon, mandated by the ceasefire agreement, appears increasingly uncertain. With the deadline rapidly approaching, questions linger over Israel’s intentions and the scenarios that could unfold if it does not adhere to the agreement.

According to retired Brigadier General Yaarob Sakher, there are strong indications that Israel may prolong its stay in southern Lebanon, specifically in strategic areas along the border.

"Israel seems poised to maintain a presence in certain key points along the border, citing two primary reasons: the lack of Lebanese army and UNIFIL deployment in critical southern locations and the continued presence of Hezbollah’s weapons systems, positions, depots, and tunnels. These issues have not been adequately addressed by the Lebanese army, UNIFIL, or the international monitoring committee established under UN Resolution 1701 'Plus,'" Sakher explained to Kataeb.org.

He highlighted that Lebanon has effectively been placed under international protection through the resolution.

"While Lebanese authorities and resistance factions agreed to the resolution’s terms to secure a ceasefire, they have failed to meet their obligations, such as removing weapons from the south. Israel, meanwhile, uses this as justification for its actions, though it hardly needs an excuse to destroy homes and neighborhoods. The international monitoring committee has yet to clear the area of any weapons systems," he added.

Sakher noted that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had previously sought approval from former U.S. President Joe Biden to extend the army’s presence in specific southern points.

"Biden reportedly agreed to the request, but the stance of the current U.S. administration remains unclear," Sakher stated. "The Trump administration had declared its focus would shift to domestic issues, such as border security with Mexico and immigration, potentially diverting attention from Middle East matters. While there have been warnings from the U.S. to Netanyahu to adhere to the agreement, it is uncertain whether the current administration will approve an extended stay and, if so, for how long."

Accordingly, Sakher outlined three key scenarios that could arise if Israel fails to meet the withdrawal deadline:

1. Prolonged Presence in Strategic Areas

Israel may decide to remain in specific areas, particularly in the central and eastern sectors, which include strategic villages and elevated positions overlooking northern Israel. These locations hold significant military value, making them vital for Israel’s security calculations.

"Israel is likely to maintain control of these areas until it is confident that the Lebanese army and UNIFIL have fully assumed responsibility for the southern region, as required by UN Resolution 1701," SakhEr explained.

By contrast, the western sector, which shares similar geography with northern Israel, poses less concern. This explains the absence of a significant Israeli presence there, whereas the central and eastern sectors remain contested due to their strategic importance.

2. Hezbollah’s Potential Response

Hezbollah has publicly declared that it will take action if Israel remains beyond the 60-day deadline. However, SakhEr dismissed these threats as rhetorical.

"Hezbollah is unlikely to act, as UN Resolution 1701 prohibits its presence in the south and, ultimately, across all Lebanese territory," he said. "The party has been effectively restricted militarily. Any aggressive move would give Israel a pretext for renewed hostilities, which Hezbollah is keen to avoid. Lebanon is now under international protection, with a president and a designated prime minister working toward rebuilding the state."

3. Temporary Extension of Israel’s Stay

A third possibility involves a temporary extension of Israel’s presence, lasting a few days or up to a week at most. This would depend on the Lebanese army and UNIFIL filling the void in areas that Israel must vacate.

Sakher concluded that such an extension could be a practical solution to prevent tensions from escalating while ensuring an orderly transition of control to Lebanese and international forces.

As the deadline for Israel’s withdrawal looms, all eyes are on southern Lebanon. The situation remains delicate, with international stakeholders closely monitoring developments to ensure compliance with the ceasefire agreement. Whether Israel will adhere to its obligations or extend its stay in strategic border areas is a question that holds significant implications for regional stability.