Lebanon is facing a worsening crisis as the combination of ongoing conflict and economic instability has led to a sharp increase in staple food prices, exacerbating already dire conditions for the country's poorest populations. According to a recent report by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), many households in Lebanon, particularly in the South and North, are struggling to meet their basic food needs.

In South Lebanon, where conflict has intensified near the Blue Line, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist. The prolonged displacement of local populations and internally displaced persons (IDPs) has disrupted agricultural livelihoods and drastically reduced purchasing power. The July spike in staple food prices, driven by high inflation, has forced many IDPs to rely more heavily on humanitarian aid for basic needs like food and shelter.

In Beirut, Mount Lebanon, and the North, widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are prevalent due to the enduring economic crisis, which has negatively impacted key industries such as construction and tourism. In the east and northeast, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected as competition for scarce labor opportunities intensifies. Many poor and unemployed Lebanese nationals and refugees have exhausted their coping capacities, often resorting to severe measures like reducing food consumption or sending children to work.

In North Lebanon, households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are trapped in multidimensional poverty, driven by the ongoing economic crisis. High competition for limited income-earning opportunities and low wages have further restricted access to essential income sources for poor Lebanese nationals and Syrian refugees. Humanitarian food assistance (HFA) cuts have compounded these challenges, leaving many households increasingly unable to meet their basic food needs.

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) system categorizes food security levels to guide responses. Phase 1 (Minimal) indicates households can meet basic needs without negative coping strategies. Phase 2 (Stressed) means households have minimal food but may need to sacrifice non-food needs, risking a slide into crisis if conditions worsen. Phase 3 (Crisis) reflects significant food consumption gaps, leading to acute malnutrition or depletion of essential assets, requiring humanitarian aid to prevent further deterioration.

Lebanese beneficiaries of the National Poverty Targeting Program (NPTP) and the Government’s Emergency Social Safety Net (ESSN) have seen a 44 percent reduction in the monthly cash assistance for a family of five. As of May, the assistance provided covered only 29 percent of food needs and eight percent of non-food needs, leaving many households struggling to cope with rising prices and the eroding value of their income.

In July, the Ministry of Economy and Trade reported sharp increases in the prices of essential food items, with national average prices of white rice rising by 13 percent and wheat flour by 26 percent compared to June. These price hikes are attributed to several factors, including the ongoing conflict, limited supplies of subsidized wheat, high consumer demand, and price violations by some vendors. Although prices stabilized in August, wheat flour remains 31 percent more expensive year-on-year, further straining the budgets of poor households.

Despite the expansion of a dollarized cash-based economy, many poor households, including IDPs and pensioners, continue to receive wages in the local currency, leaving them vulnerable to exchange rate volatility. However, foreign remittances, which account for over 30 percent of Lebanon’s GDP, continue to provide a crucial lifeline for some poor Lebanese households.

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Established in 1985 by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), FEWS NET monitors and analyzes food security conditions in over 30 countries, providing timely and accurate information to help prevent food crises. The network uses a variety of data sources, including satellite imagery, field assessments, and market analysis, to forecast food security outcomes and guide humanitarian response efforts.