Source: Kataeb.org
Monday 2 November 2026 08:31:56
Lebanon is facing renewed fears of a third war with Israel as regional tensions rise and concerns grow that Hezbollah could again draw the country into a wider confrontation with Iran, as it did in previous conflicts.
A report by Israel's Maariv newspaper has heightened anxiety among Lebanese officials and the public, describing Israeli military preparations for a possible occupation of three major southern cities — Tyre, Sidon and Nabatiyeh — if hostilities with Iran resume and Hezbollah joins the fighting.
The report said Israeli assessments envisage the possibility that Tehran could activate several fronts simultaneously, including Lebanon. Although Israel believes Hezbollah's military position has weakened, it is taking the prospect of the group entering a future conflict seriously and preparing to deploy what the newspaper described as "extremely heavy firepower."
According to Maariv, the Israeli military is working to rebuild and re-equip its Seventh Armored Brigade, which was withdrawn from Lebanon after nearly a year of military operations, to ensure it is ready for another deployment with renewed combat capabilities.
The report also suggested that the Israeli navy could play a central role in any future confrontation, given the possibility that the air force would be occupied with operations against Iran. Potential measures could include intensifying strikes across large areas of Beirut's southern suburbs, imposing a naval blockade on the ports of Beirut and Tripoli, targeting coastal cities and advancing toward them.
Lebanese ministerial sources described the situation as deeply worrying, warning that another Israeli war could not be ruled out, particularly if Hezbollah breaks its previous assurances and enters the fighting again.
"There is no doubt that the situation is alarming, and we cannot rule out Israel launching a new war against Lebanon, especially if Hezbollah does not honor its promise, as it has failed to do in the past, and enters the war again," the sources told Asharq al-Awsat.
They said Israeli threats were not new and had been repeated by officials in Tel Aviv on several occasions, but warned that Lebanon now faced a real danger that the plans being discussed in the media could ultimately be carried out.
Riad Kahwaji, a researcher and writer specializing in security and defense affairs, said the threats reported by Maariv should be taken seriously.
"The Maariv report must be read seriously. Its sources cannot be underestimated," Kahwaji told Asharq al-Awsat.
He said the threat appeared to cover the entire south, without distinguishing between areas north and south of the Litani River, and could extend to the occupation of all southern Lebanon, as well as parts of the western Bekaa Valley, if Hezbollah entered the confrontation.
Israel, Kahwaji argued, was fully aware that Hezbollah would join a future conflict and was preparing for an operation on that basis.
"Hezbollah has not disappointed the Israelis so far, particularly Benjamin Netanyahu and his government. Each time, it acts as the other side expects, allowing Israel to expand the territory it occupies," he said.
If Israel later decided to withdraw, Kahwaji added, it would do so on its own terms, leaving Lebanon to accept the outcome imposed under those conditions.
He said the Israeli threats should serve as a catalyst for the Lebanese government to accelerate its efforts to bring weapons under state control and for leaders of the Shiite community to take a decisive position on Hezbollah and its arsenal.
"These threats cannot be ignored while waiting for another disaster to happen," he said.
Looking ahead, Kahwaji suggested that another war appeared increasingly inevitable after the U.S. midterm elections. He linked that assessment to a statement issued on Saturday by Mojtaba Khamenei, which reaffirmed the concept of the "unity of fronts."
In his view, the statement undermined claims attributed to Hezbollah that it would stay out of any future confrontation.
The concerns have been compounded by information disclosed to Nidaa al-Watan by U.S. diplomatic sources, who warned that Hezbollah's entry into a war in support of Iran, should it come under a U.S. attack, could open the way for a far-reaching Israeli military operation.
The scenario outlined by the sources includes an Israeli advance as far north as the Awali River and the seizure of the cities of Nabatiyeh , Tyre and Sidon. It could also involve a blockade of Rafik Hariri International Airport and the ports of Beirut and Tripoli, as well as extensive destruction in Beirut's southern suburbs — which the sources described as potentially being "wiped off the map."
The sources claimed that U.S. President Donald Trump had approved the scenario and that his administration had warned the Lebanese state of the consequences of Hezbollah becoming involved in the war.
The warnings come as signs of a possible resumption of military confrontation between Israel and Iran are growing, with some assessments suggesting that another round of fighting could begin within days or weeks.
A report by Israel's Channel 12 said the possibility of renewed hostilities was raising questions about the objectives of another confrontation and whether Israel and the United States could achieve results beyond those secured in previous military operations, particularly regarding Iran's nuclear program.
The report quoted Raz Zimmt, former head of the Iran Program at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, as saying that Trump could conclude within days, or a few weeks at most, that waiting any longer for an Iranian response was no longer worthwhile.
Zimmt suggested that Trump could seek to take military action before January, when the new U.S. Congress is due to begin its term following the midterm elections. Such a move could make developments on the military front a factor in the administration's calculations in the coming period.
The assessment followed a phone call on Saturday between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, amid mounting tensions between Israel and Iran.
The prospect of renewed war has also raised concerns in Israel that Iran retains significant military capabilities despite previous strikes, while fears are growing over advances in its nuclear program and the possibility that Tehran could be approaching a nuclear test, according to Channel 12.
Meanwhile, the Israeli military announced on Monday that its search-and-rescue and training brigade had begun a military exercise in several areas inside Israel, scheduled to continue throughout the week.
The military said the drill would involve preparations for multiple-front scenarios, including the deployment of rescue and relief capabilities in cooperation with additional forces and emergency agencies. Its stated aim was to improve the troops' readiness and operational effectiveness and their ability to respond to several fronts simultaneously on the home front, including complex emergency situations.
The army said the exercise would involve increased movements of security forces and vehicles in several areas. It added that the drill had been scheduled in advance as part of the Home Front Command's 2026 training program and was not related to any specific security incident.