Hezbollah is rebuilding its military capabilities in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley while preparing to support Iran in the event of renewed U.S. or Israeli attacks, according to Lebanese military sources and political analysts cited by Erem News, who say the group’s apparent restraint in southern Lebanon may be part of a broader strategy directed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The sources said Hezbollah’s limited response to Israeli movements and strikes in southern Lebanon in recent months could reflect a military buildup intended to preserve fighters and weapons for a potential wider confrontation. Under this scenario, the group would be expected to provide military support to Iran and open a front in northern Israel if attacks on Iran resume, whether conducted by Washington alone or jointly with Israel.

The bulk of Hezbollah’s military and logistical resources are concentrated in the Bekaa Valley, the sources said, describing the region as a reserve of manpower and weapons that could be deployed to support operations from southern Lebanon as part of Tehran’s efforts to activate allied fronts across the region.

The sources linked these preparations to operations that they said U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had announced they would undertake against Iran following the Israeli Knesset and U.S. congressional elections.

Hezbollah seeks to address battlefield weaknesses

One of Hezbollah’s main weaknesses is the deterioration of communications and coordination between its field units, according to the Lebanese military sources. The problem emerged after large numbers of the group’s commanders and fighters were killed or wounded last summer, they said.

A senior Lebanese military official told Erem News that Hezbollah’s combat capabilities had been reinforced in recent months to prepare the group to support Iran if it came under renewed attack.

The official said the IRGC had prevented Hezbollah units in southern Lebanon from retaliating against Israeli strikes to avoid depleting fighters and ammunition that could be needed to defend Iran. The strategy, the official added, came at the cost of losing villages and towns in southern Lebanon.

IRGC personnel stationed north of the Litani River have spent the past four months training Hezbollah fighters and working to compensate for the group’s military losses, according to the source. The effort is intended to preserve the southern front’s ability to support Iran if required.

But the loss of key positions on Ali al-Taher hill exposed shortcomings in the combat capabilities of newly recruited fighters, the source said. The new personnel need more realistic training to match the capabilities of experienced Hezbollah fighters, while the group must also improve the technical equipment used to operate rockets and drones.

The IRGC has sought to prevent Hezbollah from exhausting its weapons stocks in retaliation for Israeli strikes on southern villages, the source said, with the aim of building a larger strategic reserve for potential support operations.

Hezbollah’s recent activities against Israeli forces in southern Lebanon have been limited, according to the report. Over the past five months, the group launched two explosive-laden drones that were intercepted in the Ali al-Taher area without detonating, while reconnaissance drones were flown in the middle of this month.

Its last reported rocket and drone attack against northern Israel took place on June 3, the report said.

Losses, supply constraints weaken Hezbollah

The military preparations come as Hezbollah faces mounting constraints following the loss of senior commanders, setbacks in southern Lebanon and disruptions to its weapons supply routes.

Lebanese political analyst Wajdi al-Aridi said the group no longer possessed the surplus military strength it once had, citing the loss of most of its first- and second-tier commanders and some of its third-tier leadership.

For the first time since Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000, Hezbollah had lost control of important locations in the south, including Bint Jbeil and Khiam, as well as the strategic Beaufort Castle position and areas extending to Ali al-Taher, al-Aridi said.

The losses represented a significant territorial setback for the group, he added.

Another major factor has been the disruption of Hezbollah’s supply route through Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government, al-Aridi said. He also pointed to restrictions on maritime and air access, including the refusal to allow Iranian aircraft to land at Beirut’s airport.

Lebanon’s political decisions are also affecting Hezbollah’s position, al-Aridi said, citing government measures concerning disarmament and the dissolution of the group’s military wing.

He added that Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a leading figure in the country’s Shiite political alliance alongside Hezbollah, had been displeased with the group’s decision to support Gaza and subsequently Iran, given the heavy losses in southern Lebanon and the displacement of residents following widespread destruction.

Al-Aridi argued that Hezbollah’s political and military decisions were ultimately controlled by Tehran rather than the group itself. Iran places greater strategic value on Hezbollah than on Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, Yemen’s Houthis or Hamas, he said, because Hezbollah’s presence along the Israeli border gives Tehran significant leverage.

Weapons routes and tunnel network under pressure

Lebanese political researcher Rabih Yassin said Hezbollah had lost a substantial part of its combat strength, particularly its senior commanders, who played a central role in coordinating operations with the IRGC, drawing up military plans and devising routes for moving weapons without detection.

Changes in Syria after December 2024, combined with the interception of weapons and explosives shipments and attacks targeting such transfers, have tightened restrictions on arms smuggling and severed a vital supply line for Hezbollah, Yassin told Erem News.

At the same time, Israel maintains extensive aerial surveillance capabilities, he said, with drones monitoring and filming areas including Beirut’s southern suburbs, enabling Israel to track activity on the ground.

Yassin identified the destruction of Hezbollah’s tunnel network in southern Lebanon as one of the most damaging blows to the group. Hezbollah had relied on the tunnels to store weapons, and its former leader Hassan Nasrallah had publicly showcased the facilities in videos, he said.

Despite attempts by Tehran to send money to Hezbollah, the group has suffered major defeats in southern Lebanon, Yassin added.

Rebuilding its former military capabilities would take years and require substantial resources, he said. He also pointed to international efforts targeting Hezbollah and Iran’s allied armed groups, alongside U.S. economic pressure on Tehran and Israeli surveillance of weapons destined for Hezbollah, from their transfer and delivery to their eventual use.