As 13 months of war come to an end, and over 1.2 million Lebanese displaced make their way back to their devasted towns and villages, the relief at the end of this latest round of conflict is mixed with cautious hope that perhaps a pathway out of these repeated rounds of war and the collapse of governance and economic institutions is possible.

What are the signposts along this pathway? What must the Lebanese accomplish in the weeks ahead, and how can Lebanon’s friends in the region and around the world help turn this latest crisis into an opportunity?

First, we must focus on ensuring that this ceasefire is held. On the Lebanese side, this means that Hezbollah—in effect, Iran—would have to adhere to their commitment to withdraw from points south of the Litani River and not immediately begin planning ways to go back in. And unlike what happened in 2006, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) has to step up to the plate in its responsibility as a national army to protect Lebanon and ensure that Hezbollah is out of that zone and stays out.

There are reasons to believe that both Hezbollah and Iran are of the belief that they will need several years of calm to heal from their wounds, rebuild a leadership structure for the party, and reconsider their overall strategy; that might give them reason to adhere to the agreement, at least in the short and medium term.

For their part, the LAF has already started moving into the south and has a broad political and popular mandate to do so. But it is woefully underfunded and under-equipped; it needs urgent assistance from Lebanon’s regional and international friends. The Lebanese security forces should also be assisted in consolidating their hold on Beirut airport, the country’s seaports, and the country’s land borders in order to make sure that no non-state armed group in Lebanon can illegally import weapons.

An equally urgent priority is to provide humanitarian, recovery, and reconstruction aid to the 1.2 million displaced who are now rushing back to their homes. It is important for them to know that it is the Lebanese state and friends of Lebanon in the region and around the world that will care for them and help them rebuild their lives.

The mistake of 2006 should not be repeated in which Hezbollah and Iran were able to remarket themselves as the friends of those whom Hezbollah’s own actions in July 2006 unleashed the war that led to their displacement. In this sense, winning back the hearts and minds of those who have felt neglected by the state and the international community is paramount. They deserve nothing less.

At the political level, the immediate task is convening parliament and the election of a president—a critical post that has been vacant for the past two years.

While Hezbollah is painting the ceasefire as a victory and boasting that they fought Israel to a standstill, as they did in 2006, the majority of Lebanese don’t buy it. Hezbollah built its narrative after 2006 on the basis that it was the guarantor of the security of Lebanon, and the south in particular, against Israeli aggression; it has been plain for all to see that Hezbollah’s war of choice against Israel since 8 October 2023, inevitably brought on Israel’s large-scale assault on Lebanon and that while Hezbollah could continue to lob missiles into Israel, it was unable to shield its support base from the devastating air assaults that have displaced them and left the country in ruins.

Hezbollah has officially said that it would engage right away in the process of electing a president, and the speaker of parliament, Nabih Berri, has communicated that Hezbollah is willing to be more ‘flexible’ in the process of electing a new president.

But it should be incumbent on all Lebanese parliamentarians and to those countries of the 'quintet' that are closely involved in the relevant diplomacy to be aware that the depth of the crisis in Lebanon requires a strong choice for president: a president who is committed to national sovereignty, who will not compromise on the need for reform and fighting systemic corruption, and a president who can lead national reconciliation, national rebuilding, and a national dialogue about a new defence and security strategy for the country.

And upon the election of a president, the next political necessity is naming an equally nationalist and reform-minded prime minister and the formation of an effective government that would be credible to the Lebanese people looking for real leadership, and to the international community that will not provide much needed assistance to Lebanon if the same corrupt and sectarian warlords simply reshuffle the portfolios of government.

And the old formula that Hezbollah has been imposing on all recent governments—the formula of "the people, the army, and the resistance"—must be rejected out of hand. The so-called resistance has brought yet another round of devastation to the country, and the very agreement that they have again signed up to, UNSCR 1701, is very clear about the necessity for state sovereignty.

With a new president and government in power, the state's to-do list is long and deep: reinforce the national security forces and consolidate their control over the entire Lebanese territory and all its borders and ports; undertake a rapid series of internal economic and governance reforms to rebuild domestic and international confidence in the Lebanese state and economy, rebuild and refloat the banking system, and lead a sustainable reconstruction and economic development effort.

In this journey, the Lebanese people and state need the strong support of Lebanon's friends among states of the region and internationally to insist on a full restoration of Lebanon's sovereignty and to assist the Lebanese security forces to succeed in that mission; to insist on rapid and far-reaching economic and political reforms; and then to be partners in necessary reconstruction assistance and in foreign direct investment to grow the economy.

The road ahead will be challenging. The pitfalls are many. The ceasefire itself might fall prey to an Iranian decision to reignite the Lebanon front or an Israeli decision to go back to its destructive path against Hezbollah and Lebanon. But the Lebanese people and the friends of Lebanon must seize this opportunity and work their hardest to set a new course for the country.

Lebanon has suffered long enough and has radiated instability and risk throughout the region. Putting Lebanon back on the path of statehood and economic recovery is not only an urgent necessity for the Lebanese but also a step toward building a more peaceful and prosperous Middle East.