Around 864,174 Lebanese emigrated or traveled abroad between 2012 and 2025, with departures peaking at more than 180,000 in 2023 and remaining above 172,000 in 2024, according to researcher Mohammad Shamseddine.

The figures underscore the scale of Lebanon’s population outflow as the country faces a deepening employment crisis, with unemployment estimated at 36% in 2026, according to Al-Modon.

The number of departures fell to around 65,263 in 2025, but remained significantly higher than the lows recorded in the middle of the previous decade. The two peak years, 2023 and 2024, accounted for nearly 41% of the total recorded over the 13-year period, while the six years from 2020 to 2025 represented almost two-thirds of all departures.

The trend was far from steady. Departures were relatively high in 2012 and 2013 before declining in 2014 and 2015, reaching a low of around 11,650 in 2016. They then gradually increased to approximately 66,806 in 2019, before falling sharply to 17,721 in 2020. The numbers rebounded in 2021, dipped slightly in 2022 and surged to around 180,133 in 2023, followed by approximately 172,728 in 2024.

Shamseddine said the decline in departures in 2025 did not necessarily signal an improvement in conditions. With employment opportunities shrinking in traditional destination countries, he argued, emigration has become more difficult and 2026 could see more Lebanese returning than leaving.

Unemployment estimated at 36% as labor market struggles

The outflow comes as unemployment continues to rise. Shamseddine estimates that the rate reached 36% in 2026, with around 570,000 people unemployed out of a labor force of approximately 1.6 million.

His estimate is substantially higher than the World Bank’s projection in its latest Macro Poverty Outlook, which put unemployment at 15.2% in 2026, up from 12.6% in 2025. Shamseddine said the migration figures used in the report’s calculations were inaccurate and failed to reflect the actual situation in Lebanon.

A separate study conducted in May 2026 found that unemployment had risen to 33%, according to international demography and geography expert Ali Faour, who pointed to the impact of the conflict on the labor market.

Earlier figures also show the scale of the deterioration. Unemployment among Lebanese rose from 12.1% in 2018–2019 to 29.6% in 2023, according to a survey by the Central Administration of Statistics and the International Labour Organization. Faour noted that the comparison relates specifically to that period of the crisis.

Shamseddine warned that a halt in emigration, combined with an increase in returnees, could place further pressure on the labor market while reducing remittances from the Lebanese diaspora. Around 250,000 households in Lebanon benefit from these transfers, which provide an important source of financial support.

Although return flows remain limited, he said, uncertainty about the future is a growing concern. The difficult international financial climate is also affecting Lebanese living abroad, making it too early to determine how migration patterns will evolve before the course and outcome of ongoing wars become clearer.

Poverty deepens as living conditions deteriorate

Rising unemployment has coincided with a sharp increase in poverty, further weakening the prospects of those who remain in Lebanon.

A 2024 poverty assessment found that monetary poverty among Lebanese had risen from 11% in 2012 to 33% in 2022. The poverty gap also widened from 3% to 9.4%, indicating a deepening of deprivation.

Faour told Al-Modon that the findings covered the areas included in the survey: Akkar, Beirut, the Bekaa, North Lebanon and most of Mount Lebanon.

A separate measure by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) estimated in 2021 that multidimensional poverty affected around 77% of Lebanese households, compared with 82% of the total population. The indicator measures deprivation across several areas, including education, healthcare, housing, employment and income.

Remittances from Lebanese abroad have provided some households with a degree of protection against the crisis. Others, however, have been forced to cut spending on food and healthcare, widening the gap between families able to withstand the economic shock and those struggling to meet basic needs, Faour said.

Nearly 50,000 Lebanese-born residents in France

France is among the countries hosting a sizeable Lebanese community. Its 2022 census recorded 49,743 residents born in Lebanon, while broader estimates put the Lebanese community at around 210,000, according to the French Foreign Ministry.

The two figures are based on different definitions and should not be directly compared. The census counts people born in Lebanon, while the broader estimate includes people of Lebanese origin.

According to Faour, 26,183 Lebanese-born residents, or 52.6% of the total, live in the Île-de-France region. The remaining 23,560, or 47.4%, live elsewhere in France.

Greater Paris accounts for 20,259 residents, representing 40.7% of the national total, while 8,411, or 16.9%, live within the City of Paris. Some 58.5% of Lebanese-born residents in Greater Paris live outside the capital itself.

Within Île-de-France, Paris has the largest number of Lebanese-born residents, followed by Hauts-de-Seine with 7,223, Val-de-Marne with 3,046 and Yvelines with 2,310.

Outside the region, the largest concentrations are in Rhône, with 2,129 residents, followed by Bouches-du-Rhône with 1,837, Alpes-Maritimes with 1,743 and Haute-Garonne with 1,213.

The figures are based on France’s National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) 2022 census, specifically Table IMG1B, published in 2025. The estimate of 210,000 for the wider Lebanese community comes from the French Foreign Ministry and also appeared in a 2016 parliamentary report. The census figures cover only people born in Lebanon, not everyone of Lebanese descent.

A century of successive emigration waves

Emigration from Lebanon is not a new phenomenon. Between 1865 and 1916, around 330,000 people left Mount Lebanon in what the American University of Beirut’s Crisis Observatory describes as the first major wave. Historian and economist Boutros Labaki characterized it as an exodus driven largely by Christian farmers from the mountain.

The civil war, which lasted from 1975 to 1990, prompted another mass departure, with an estimated 990,000 people leaving the country, according to migration researcher Paul Tabar. During that period, traditional destinations in the Americas increasingly gave way to the Gulf states and Europe. Residents of southern Lebanon were also forcibly displaced following the Israeli invasions of 1978 and 1982, as well as during the past three years.

The Crisis Observatory classifies the exodus that began after 2019 as the third major wave in Lebanon’s history.