Hezbollah’s renewed pledge of allegiance to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has stirred fears in Lebanon that the group could be drawn into the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, despite official Lebanese efforts to maintain neutrality and growing doubts over the party’s current military capabilities.

The concerns were reignited after Hezbollah issued a strongly worded statement condemning Israeli threats to assassinate Khamenei, calling such rhetoric “reckless and foolish” with “dangerous consequences.”

“Despite the absurdity and depravity of those making such threats, merely uttering them constitutes a grave insult to hundreds of millions of believers and supporters of Islam, resistance, and dignity,” the statement read. “We are today more determined and committed to the path of the great leader, Imam Khamenei, and we stand alongside him and the heroic Iranian people in facing American-Israeli aggression.”

In a televised speech later on Thursday, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said that the group would “act as we see fit” in response to the "brutal Israeli-American aggression," adding that Hezbollah was “not neutral” in the ongoing conflict.

Hezbollah, Qassem added, still had “the responsibility to stand by Iran and provide it with all forms of support that contribute to putting an end to this tyranny and oppression.”

Although Lebanon’s southern border has remained calm for more than a week, the timing and tone of those recent statements have unsettled Lebanese officials. Government and presidential sources maintain that Lebanon must remain neutral in the regional confrontation, and security coordination between the Lebanese Army and Hezbollah has continued, officials told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Security sources confirmed that the Lebanese Army has maintained uninterrupted communication with Hezbollah and issued firm warnings to all armed factions against disturbing stability in the south. According to these sources, Hezbollah has “independently chosen” to stay out of the fight, showing a strong interest in preserving Lebanon’s internal security.

“The group has not taken any military action in the past seven days,” one source said. “It is crucial to protect Lebanon from being dragged into a regional war that would jeopardize national stability.”

While political indicators do not currently point to an imminent decision by Hezbollah to engage, officials say the overall situation remains clouded in uncertainty.

“Efforts to maintain Lebanon’s neutrality are ongoing,” one ministerial source said. “Warnings about the risks of Hezbollah’s involvement continue, and we hope all efforts succeed in keeping Lebanon out of the war.”

Some analysts believe Hezbollah’s military operations are ultimately directed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and not its political leadership.

“The IRGC calls the shots on the battlefield,” one source noted. “If Iran decides to open another front, Hezbollah’s political wing may not even be aware of it until after the fact.”

The group’s public loyalty to Khamenei is nothing new, analysts say, and should be viewed as reiterating its longstanding adherence to Wilayat al-Faqih, the Iranian model of clerical rule.

“Hezbollah follows Khamenei as its religious and political authority,” one analyst said. “But in operational terms, decisions about war are more likely made by the IRGC based on Iran’s strategic needs.”

In military terms, observers are skeptical about Hezbollah’s ability to engage in a large-scale confrontation. The last round of fighting in southern Lebanon significantly degraded its military infrastructure, particularly south of the Litani River, which once served as a launchpad for short-range rockets such as the Grad and Katyusha.

These smaller projectiles, previously fired from positions close to the border, were easier to prepare and launch. But longer-range missiles, typically deployed from deeper within Lebanese territory, are more vulnerable to interception by Israeli air defenses.

According to retired Lebanese Brigadier General Hisham Jaber, head of the Middle East Center for Strategic and Military Studies, Hezbollah would gain little from joining the war.

“If the group uses its remaining arsenal, it will not shift the balance of power,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat. “Iran, at this point, does not need a handful of rockets from Hezbollah when it is already hitting Tel Aviv and Haifa with ballistic missiles.”

Jaber said Tehran has explicitly asked Hezbollah to stay out of the conflict to avoid devastating losses.

“Iran wants to preserve Hezbollah as a strategic asset. It doesn’t need the group right now and prefers to avoid provoking a situation where Hezbollah gets destroyed.”

Engagement, he warned, would likely lead to extensive destruction without affecting the course of the conflict.

“If Hezbollah joins the war now, it risks annihilation at a time when it’s still recovering from its last military engagement,” he said. “Iran values Hezbollah as a political and military force. Entering this war would be a strategic blunder, just as supporting the Gaza conflict was. The party would lose its domestic political leverage in Lebanon.”