Source: Al Arabiya
Author: Vanessa Ghanem
Wednesday 7 August 2024 17:38:34
The recent assassinations of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut have brought the two regional powers closer to a direct military confrontation and marked an intensification in their ongoing shadow war.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei vowed to retaliate against Israel for the assassination of Haniyeh last Wednesday in the Iranian capital. The slain leader was in the country to attend President Masoud Pezeshkian’s inauguration.
The country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has warned that “blood vengeance” for the killing is “certain.”
Both Tehran and Hamas have accused Israel of orchestrating the killing, though Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement. It, however, claimed responsibility for killing Shukr, a senior aide to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, in Beirut’s southern suburbs. The attack in Tehran occurred just hours after the Israeli operation in Beirut.
Israel said Shukr was behind a rocket strike that hit the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights on July 27, killing 12 youngsters. Hezbollah denied responsibility for the strike.
Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas have pledged to avenge the twin killings. Analysts suggest that their response could surpass any attacks Israel has faced in recent months. Iran and Hezbollah are expected to take measures to reassert their influence following the significant security breaches. It is widely believed, though, that their retaliation will be calculated and measured.
Yesterday, Nasrallah said his group and Iran were “obliged to respond” to Israel “whatever the consequences.”
“Our response, God willing, will be strong, effective and impactful,” he added.
Following these escalations, hundreds of Lebanese prepared to flee the country as various states advised their citizens to depart Lebanon. The US, France, Canada and Britain issued travel advisories urging their nationals to leave, and Jordan followed suit. Several airlines either suspended or reduced their flights to the area.
Since the onset of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza 10 months ago, the Israeli military and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants have engaged in near-daily exchanges of fire. Hezbollah has established what it calls a “support front” in southern Lebanon, aimed at drawing Israeli military resources away from Gaza.
A week has passed since the killing of Haniyeh and Shukr, but there has been no major attack on Israel. Diplomats are actively working throughout the region in an effort to avert any further escalation.
On Tuesday, Hezbollah launched drones at two military sites near Acre in northern Israel and attacked an Israeli military vehicle in another location. Nasrallah stated that these ongoing tit-for-tat exchanges were part of the routine skirmishes since October 2023 and should not be seen as the promised revenge.
Israel is bracing for a multi-front assault from Iran and its network of militant groups, known as the Axis of Resistance, which includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq and Yemen’s Houthis.
Analysts argue that the need for coordination among these groups is causing the delay in Iran’s response.
“Iran must carefully calibrate its response to send a powerful message to Israel, stronger than their actions in April, which they viewed as unsuccessful, but not so strong as to escalate into open warfare,” Thomas Juneau, associate professor of public and international affairs at the University of Ottawa in Canada, told Al Arabiya English. “This is a delicate and dangerous balance that Iran, Hezbollah and their allies must strike.”
“Another likely scenario is that the response will not be a single event, but could unfold over hours, days or even weeks. This may also include a cyber-dimension, which would require additional preparation time.”
Dalia Dassa Kaye, senior fellow at the UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations believes that the Iranians will avoid a response that could provoke greater American involvement, aiming instead to contain the conflict by minimizing civilian casualties in Israel.
“The risk is that such careful responses are never guaranteed on either side,” she noted.
US intelligence indicated the retaliation was taking longer than initially anticipated. The US now expects an attack against Israel in the coming days. It remains uncertain whether Tehran and Hezbollah will coordinate their response.
“While Haniyeh’s assassination was a security and intelligence operation by Israel, a military response alone is unlikely to create effective deterrence,” Javad Heirannia, director of Persian Gulf Studies at the Tehran-based Center for Scientific Research and Middle East Strategic Studies, told Al Arabiya English. “Severe military actions could trigger Israeli counterattacks.”
US military support for Israel
The US Department of Defense has been moving vessels and aircraft across the Middle East to strengthen defenses following threats from Iran and its proxies.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin discussed comprehensive security strategies to protect Israel, according to a statement on Monday.
In April, Iran and Israel broke a longstanding practice of avoiding direct attacks on each other’s territory, engaging in their first exchange of fire. On April 13, Iran launched 300 projectiles at Israel after accusing it of attacking its consulate in Damascus.
The Iranian offensive was planned and announced beforehand, allowing Israel to prepare. Its Iron Dome defense system, along with regional coordination and support from CENTCOM, intercepted nearly all the incoming missiles. In response, Israel conducted a limited retaliatory strike.
“The US’ commitment to supporting Israel in its conflict with Iran and its allies was evident in the April exchanges. However, this American support is unlikely to deter Iran from retaliating after such an embarrassing strike at the heart of Tehran,” Kaye told Al Arabiya English.
As the American military mobilizes allies to defend Israel from a potential Iranian attack, top US officials are urging partners to dissuade Iran from launching a strike or coordinating attacks with its proxy groups. They are also requesting Israel to exercise restraint to avoid a broader regional conflict.
In his most direct wording toward Israel, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Iran and Israel should avoid escalating conflict in the Middle East, adding that his country has been “engaged in intense diplomacy.”
“US President Joe Biden has informed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the US will only defend Israel against attacks from Iran and its allies,” Heirannia noted. “This indicates that Washington will not engage in the conflict if it escalates due to provocative actions by Israel. This stance serves as a warning to Israel regarding the nature of its response to Iran’s retaliation.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin has urged Khamenei to respond to the assassination of Haniyeh with restraint and to avoid targeting Israeli civilians. The message was conveyed by Sergei Shoigu, a close Kremlin ally, during his meetings with top Iranian officials on Monday.
US officials, lawmakers and experts agree that neither Israel nor Iran wants a full-scale war due to its potential for immense destruction, fearing it would cripple the two countries.
“Iran has long avoided direct, large-scale confrontation with the US, knowing that while it can inflict damage on its adversaries, the US and its allies possess superior conventional military power that could devastate Iran,” Juneau pointed out. “This understanding has driven Iran to engage in indirect, hybrid warfare to leverage its strengths and mitigate its vulnerabilities. Both Iran and Hezbollah prefer to avoid open warfare, as they recognize the severe repercussions such a conflict would bring upon themselves. While recent provocations by Israel have pushed Iran and Hezbollah to demonstrate a stronger stance, they still aim to avoid an outright war.”