One year after its latest war with Israel, Hezbollah enters 2025 burdened by deep military and social wounds. Once proud of its image as an “invincible force,” the movement still retains hidden capabilities, but experts say its offensive momentum has evaporated. Meanwhile, its support base in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa is paying the price, as Israel pushes forward with an intelligence-driven strategy that keeps it one step ahead.

Since the 2006 Lebanon War, Hezbollah worked to build a missile arsenal that, in its own narrative, enforced a balance of deterrence. The war in Syria in 2011 expanded its reach, with supply lines through Damascus and a missile-production hub in Masyaf. But the collapse of the Syrian regime and shifting regional balances eroded this strategic depth. The 2024 conflict then pushed Hezbollah’s military structure to the brink of exhaustion.

Israel’s New Target Bank

During the support war that stretched from October 8, 2023, until the November 27, 2024 ceasefire, Israel redrew the battlefield rules. Beyond destroying missile launchers and weapons depots, it began targeting the homes of Hezbollah members in southern villages.

Defense analyst Riad Kahwaji told Asharq al-Awsat this shift “greatly raised the social cost. The destroyed houses and mass displacement have left the support environment crushed by destruction and hardship, feeding back into Hezbollah’s weakening position both militarily and internally.”

Retired Brigadier General Said Kozah added that Hezbollah’s massive military machine, painstakingly built since 1985, collapsed almost instantly. “On the first day of serious fighting, Israel struck around 1,800 targets in the Bekaa, the south, and Beirut’s southern suburb - all weapons depots and storage sites - and destroyed them all,” he said.

Leadership Hit, Logistics Crippled

A wave of targeted assassinations struck at the heart of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force. Kahwaji argued that Israeli intelligence penetration now paralyzes the group, blocking it from mounting special operations. Kozah pointed to the “Pager Operation,” which lured Radwan fighters into a deadly trap, leaving many dead or permanently injured.

From Rockets to Drones

With its capacity to launch large rocket salvos diminished, Hezbollah leaned on cheap drones for surveillance and attack. Yet Kahwaji estimates only 30 percent of its short-range rockets remain, along with a small stock of drones and a handful of long-range missiles. This, he noted, “does not constitute a sustainable firepower base, only sporadic harassment.”

Israel meanwhile pushed deeper, dismantling tunnels, blowing up arms depots across Lebanon, and even destroying missile and drone factories in Syria before the Assad regime’s fall, a development that severed Hezbollah’s critical supply line.

Losing the Lifelines

Both analysts agree the collapse of Damascus as a loyal ally dealt Hezbollah a crippling blow. Masyaf had supplied heavy rockets; its loss left Hezbollah with only limited local production of short-range rockets and drones. “Any future war,” Kahwaji warned, “could be its last.”

Kazah stressed that with Syrian territory no longer a conduit for Iranian weapons, Hezbollah has lost its primary source of arms, funds, and logistics. Secretary-General Naim Qassem himself admitted casualties of some 6,000 dead and 13,000 wounded or disabled, nearly 20,000 fighters removed from the battlefield.

Shifting Domestic Scene

The consequences are visible inside Lebanon. Many displaced families remain unable to return home, villages lie in ruins, and public opinion has turned sharply. Former allies have distanced themselves, some urging Hezbollah to accept the government’s plan to place all weapons under state authority, in line with the Taif Accord and international resolutions.

“Hezbollah no longer possesses the capacity to confront Israel directly,” Kozah concluded. “Its infrastructure north of the Litani has been devastated, and politically, its partners are abandoning it. The party now faces not only military attrition but a profound crisis of legitimacy.”