Lebanon will be directly affected by any disruption to the Strait of Hormuz due to its heavy reliance on imported energy, Kataeb Political Bureau member and former Economy Minister Alain Hakim said on Tuesday, warning of rising costs and increased economic strain.

“We will be affected by any crisis in Hormuz, as we rely on imported energy,” Hakim said in remarks to MTV Lebanon. “Electricity costs will rise, particularly for private generators, alongside additional inflation. Pressure on purchasing power will increase.”

He added that remittances and investment flows could decline, particularly if Lebanese expatriate communities are affected, although he said such a scenario remains unlikely.

Despite these risks, Hakim pointed to a positive indicator in Lebanon’s economy, noting that the country’s Eurobonds have improved, trading between 25 and 26 cents on the dollar.

“This is a very positive indicator on the economic front,” he said, stressing that it should be supported by “a clear and direct sovereign approach.”

Hakim argued that restoring full state authority is essential for any economic recovery, saying there is no alternative to placing all weapons under the control of the state.

“There is no alternative to limiting all illegal arms to the authority of the state. This is where the economic file begins,” he said. “Otherwise, we will not reach any solution.”

He added that direct negotiations are productive in both the short and long term, particularly in restoring Lebanese sovereignty and consolidating control over weapons in the hands of the state.

“The will of the State is sufficient to reach workable solutions,” he said, calling for a swift conclusion to negotiations while preserving Lebanon’s sovereign rights, especially with regard to its borders and territory.

Turning to the broader regional and global context, Hakim warned that any disruption to the Strait of Hormuz would have far-reaching consequences for energy markets, trade, and supply routes worldwide.

He noted that the strategic waterway accounts for between 20% and 25% of global gas trade, in addition to a significant share of oil flows, making it a critical artery for international commerce.

“If tensions persist, we could see an acceleration in global inflation, rising fuel and electricity prices, and further disruption to global supply chains,” he said.

Hakim also pointed to mounting economic pressure on Iran, saying the country is already facing severe strain amid the rapid depreciation of its currency.

“The economic pressure on Iran is enormous,” he said, warning that this could undermine its ability to withstand prolonged confrontation.

He added that a broader slowdown in the global economy would come at a high cost, with declining growth rates and rising inflation. Sanctions targeting Iran, he said, are aimed at reducing its exports, limiting foreign currency inflows and placing additional pressure on its local currency.