Gulf States Warn U.S. That Strike on Iran Could Trigger Regional Chaos

Saudi Arabia, joined by Qatar and Oman, is leading a Gulf diplomatic push to dissuade the White House from carrying out a potential military strike on Iran, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday.

According to the report, the initiative reflects deep concerns among Gulf states that any escalation could destabilize the region, disrupt global energy supplies, and provoke domestic unrest, particularly if Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei were harmed.

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway separating Iran from its Arab neighbors and accounting for roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments, is a central concern for the Gulf states. Officials fear that military action could jeopardize the safe passage of oil tankers, threatening both regional stability and the global economy.

The diplomatic effort comes after Washington reportedly warned Gulf allies to prepare for a potential escalation. Riyadh, Doha, and Muscat have privately lobbied the Trump administration, emphasizing that any attempt to topple Iran’s regime would destabilize oil markets and ultimately harm U.S. economic interests.

Saudi officials have informed Tehran that they will not participate in any conflict and will deny U.S. forces access to their airspace, aiming to avoid being drawn into a U.S.-led confrontation. Gulf diplomats have also warned Washington against pursuing regime change, arguing that such an outcome could trigger broader regional chaos.

While the Gulf states have largely remained publicly silent amid ongoing protests inside Iran, officials have conveyed urgent warnings behind the scenes. Observers say Saudi Arabia, in particular, views stability as essential to its economic diversification plans under Vision 2030. Analysts suggest that Gulf leaders would prefer domestic reform in Iran rather than the collapse of the regime.

Iran has been rocked by widespread demonstrations since late December, sparked by the sharp devaluation of the rial and worsening economic conditions. Protests, which began at Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, have spread across multiple cities. Government officials have accused the United States and Israel of supporting the unrest.

U.S. officials have indicated that President Donald Trump has not made a final decision on military action.

“The president listens to a host of opinions on any given issue, but ultimately makes the decision he feels is best,” a White House official told reporters. Trump, meanwhile, posted on social media Tuesday: “HELP IS ON ITS WAY,” urging Iranian demonstrators to continue their protests.

Former U.S. Ambassador Michael Ratney said Gulf states oppose the Iranian regime but fear the instability that could follow its collapse.

“They have no love for the Iranian regime,” he said, “but they also have a great aversion to instability.”