Source: FX Empire
Security & Justice
Southern Lebanon Endures Massive Damage: 40,000 Homes Leveled Across 37 Towns
Israeli forces have systematically destroyed entire neighborhoods in southern Lebanon, leveling more than 37 towns and wiping out over 40,000 residential units, according to Lebanon's National News Agency.
Tuesday, November 5, 2024
Gaps in Coastal Radar Enabled Israeli Raid in Batroun, Army Commander Says
Lebanon’s army chief, General Joseph Aoun, detailed to Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati how Israeli forces likely exploited gaps in the country's coastal radar system during the recent raid carried out in Batroun. The briefing comes as Lebanese officials seek answers on how Israel’s elite Shayetet 13 unit carried out the landing undetected.
Monday, November 4, 2024
Opinion
The Emptying of Baalbek Is a Moment to Take Stock
“Large numbers of people continue to flee their homes every day, as Israel’s military operations in Lebanon have been going on unabated.” These disturbing words could be from almost any news report about Israel’s invasion of its northern neighbour over the past month. However, they can be found in a report by the Norwegian Refugee Council’s Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre issued on July 27, 2006.
Saturday, November 2, 2024
A Future Without Hezbollah
At the end of September, when Israel’s campaign to destroy Hezbollah was reaching its height, I met one of the group’s supporters in a seaside café in western Beirut. He was a middle-aged man with a thin white beard and the spent look of someone who had not slept for days. He was an academic of sorts, not a fighter, but his ties to Hezbollah were deep and long-standing.
Thursday, October 31, 2024
Sports
Tottenham Forward Son Heung-min Crowned Asia’s International Player of the Year
Tottenham forward Son Heung-min was crowned as Asia’s International Player of the Year for the fourth time by the Asian Football Confederation at its annual awards ceremony Tuesday.
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
Real Madrid Launch Investigation into Racist Insults After El Clasico Defeat
Real Madrid has launched an investigation into racist insults directed at players during Saturday’s 4-0 home loss to Barcelona in LaLiga, it said on Sunday.
Monday, October 28, 2024
Monday 20 November 2023 16:15:10
Gold Prices Forecast: XAU/USD Path Influenced by Dollar, Yields
Gold market speculates on XAU/USD future as anticipation of Fed’s dovish pivot and minutes guide its short-term trajectory.
Early Dip Despite Dollar Weakness
Gold prices (XAU/USD) are currently experiencing a slight dip, despite a weakening U.S. Dollar. As of 07:25 GMT, gold trades at $1980.58, a marginal decrease of 0.01%. December Comex Gold futures also show a downtrend at $1982.90, down by 0.09%. This movement is primarily influenced by marginally higher U.S. Treasury yields.
Federal Reserve’s Rate Hike Campaign
The gold market is reacting to the broader economic landscape, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate hike campaign. Recent economic data, indicating a slowing U.S. jobs market and lower-than-expected inflation, have led to speculation that the Fed might pause its rate increases.
The dollar’s decline to a two-month low further supports this view, with market anticipations shifting towards potential rate cuts. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 30% likelihood of rate reductions starting as early as March.
Upcoming FOMC Minutes and Market Sentiment
The forthcoming release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting is keenly awaited. These minutes are expected to provide insights into the Fed’s decision-making and could potentially signal a shift towards more dovish policies. This shift, often referred to as the ‘Fed pivot,’ might favor softer U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, which could bolster gold prices and other risk assets.
Gold’s Outlook Amid Economic Indicators
Despite these developments, there’s a notable divergence between gold prices and real yields. To surpass the $2,000 per ounce mark, gold may require significantly weaker economic data. This is evident from recent trends in the job market and consumer inflation reports, which rekindled hopes of the Fed easing monetary conditions sooner than anticipated.
Investor Focus and SPDR Gold Trust Holdings
Investors are now focusing on the Fed’s minutes for further clarity on the interest rate trajectory. Meanwhile, holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold-backed ETF, rose by 1.49% to 883.43 tonnes, indicating sustained investor interest in gold amid these changing economic conditions.
Short-Term Forecast for Gold Prices
In the short term, gold prices are likely to remain sensitive to shifts in U.S. monetary policy and economic indicators. Given the recent dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and the downward pressure on the U.S. dollar, there’s potential for a modest uptick in gold prices.
However, the extent of this increase may be tempered by the current market divergence between gold prices and real yields. Should the upcoming Federal Reserve minutes confirm a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, we could see further support for gold prices.
Overall, the short-term outlook for gold appears cautiously optimistic, with a likelihood of gradual gains, especially if the U.S. economic data continues to signal a slowdown.
Technical Analysis
In the gold (XAU/USD) market, the current daily price of 1979.81 is hovering near the minor resistance level of 1987.00, suggesting a potential challenge in breaking through this threshold.
This price is above both the 200-day and 50-day moving averages, set at 1937.71 and 1928.63 respectively, indicating a general bullish trend in the medium to long-term.
However, the proximity to the main resistance at 2009.00 could limit upward movement. The support levels at 1952.21 (minor) and 1930.64 (main) provide downside protection, suggesting that the price is currently in a consolidation phase within these bounds.
The overall market sentiment leans towards bullish, but with caution, as the current price is in a delicate balance near critical resistance levels.
