Source: FX Empire
Security & Justice
State Action Signals Change in Tackling Longstanding Illegal Land Grabs in Jbeil District
For years, the serene villages of Jbeil's highlands have been far from peaceful. Ghabat, a Maronite village nestled between the predominantly Shiite towns of Afqa and Lassa, has become a focal point of growing tensions due to territorial disputes.
Friday, December 20, 2024
Mawlawi Ensures Strict Monitoring for Wanted Syrian Regime Figures at Beirut Airport
Caretaker Minister of Interior, Bassam Mawlawi, conducted an inspection tour of Rafic Hariri International Airport in Beirut to review the security arrangements and measures implemented by the Airport Security Apparatus ahead of the holiday season.
Thursday, December 19, 2024
Opinion
Lebanon After the Assads
The United States has important equities in Lebanon, including a desire for a generally friendly government’s economic and political stability; security cooperation; long-standing relations with the large Christian community in Lebanon and Lebanese diaspora in the United States; and ultimately peace between Israel and Lebanon within a broader regional settlement. Achieving these objectives will require navigating a tumultuous period in the country’s history following a war between Hezbollah and Israel that has devastated a large part of the country, exacerbating Lebanon’s already challenging economic conditions. But perhaps the most important dynamic will be how a likely Sunni-dominated state of uncertain composition in Syria will differ in its intentions toward Lebanon from the previous Alawite-led minoritarian Assad regime.
Thursday, December 19, 2024
Europe’s Syrian Dilemma
The news of the sudden and unexpected demise of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has met a mixed response in Europe. The jubilation that a murderous dictator and close ally of Russia and Iran has fallen is not just good for the Syrian people but serves as a morale booster for Eastern Europeans wondering whether Russia can be defeated
Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Sports
Cristiano Ronaldo Unveils New Private Jet Worth $73 Million
Cristiano Ronaldo, one of the richest global athletes, has unveiled his upgraded private jet reportedly worth $73 million. With its top-notch design, exceptional speed and range of 7500 nautical miles, the Gulfstream G650 is among the fastest jets in the world.
Monday, December 16, 2024
Guardiola Accepts Man City May Need to Sign More Players to Cope with Schedule
Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola believes he will need a bigger squad to handle soccer’s ever-expanding fixture schedule.
Saturday, December 14, 2024
Monday 20 November 2023 16:15:10
Gold Prices Forecast: XAU/USD Path Influenced by Dollar, Yields
Gold market speculates on XAU/USD future as anticipation of Fed’s dovish pivot and minutes guide its short-term trajectory.
Early Dip Despite Dollar Weakness
Gold prices (XAU/USD) are currently experiencing a slight dip, despite a weakening U.S. Dollar. As of 07:25 GMT, gold trades at $1980.58, a marginal decrease of 0.01%. December Comex Gold futures also show a downtrend at $1982.90, down by 0.09%. This movement is primarily influenced by marginally higher U.S. Treasury yields.
Federal Reserve’s Rate Hike Campaign
The gold market is reacting to the broader economic landscape, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate hike campaign. Recent economic data, indicating a slowing U.S. jobs market and lower-than-expected inflation, have led to speculation that the Fed might pause its rate increases.
The dollar’s decline to a two-month low further supports this view, with market anticipations shifting towards potential rate cuts. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 30% likelihood of rate reductions starting as early as March.
Upcoming FOMC Minutes and Market Sentiment
The forthcoming release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting is keenly awaited. These minutes are expected to provide insights into the Fed’s decision-making and could potentially signal a shift towards more dovish policies. This shift, often referred to as the ‘Fed pivot,’ might favor softer U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, which could bolster gold prices and other risk assets.
Gold’s Outlook Amid Economic Indicators
Despite these developments, there’s a notable divergence between gold prices and real yields. To surpass the $2,000 per ounce mark, gold may require significantly weaker economic data. This is evident from recent trends in the job market and consumer inflation reports, which rekindled hopes of the Fed easing monetary conditions sooner than anticipated.
Investor Focus and SPDR Gold Trust Holdings
Investors are now focusing on the Fed’s minutes for further clarity on the interest rate trajectory. Meanwhile, holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold-backed ETF, rose by 1.49% to 883.43 tonnes, indicating sustained investor interest in gold amid these changing economic conditions.
Short-Term Forecast for Gold Prices
In the short term, gold prices are likely to remain sensitive to shifts in U.S. monetary policy and economic indicators. Given the recent dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and the downward pressure on the U.S. dollar, there’s potential for a modest uptick in gold prices.
However, the extent of this increase may be tempered by the current market divergence between gold prices and real yields. Should the upcoming Federal Reserve minutes confirm a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, we could see further support for gold prices.
Overall, the short-term outlook for gold appears cautiously optimistic, with a likelihood of gradual gains, especially if the U.S. economic data continues to signal a slowdown.
Technical Analysis
In the gold (XAU/USD) market, the current daily price of 1979.81 is hovering near the minor resistance level of 1987.00, suggesting a potential challenge in breaking through this threshold.
This price is above both the 200-day and 50-day moving averages, set at 1937.71 and 1928.63 respectively, indicating a general bullish trend in the medium to long-term.
However, the proximity to the main resistance at 2009.00 could limit upward movement. The support levels at 1952.21 (minor) and 1930.64 (main) provide downside protection, suggesting that the price is currently in a consolidation phase within these bounds.
The overall market sentiment leans towards bullish, but with caution, as the current price is in a delicate balance near critical resistance levels.
