Lebanon’s ongoing war, which began last September, has already caused financial losses exceeding $11 billion, more than double the damages incurred during the 2006 conflict, according to analysts. With no end to the hostilities in sight, these figures are expected to rise further.  

Length of Conflict Drives Record Losses  

Mohammad Shamseddine, a researcher at Information International, highlighted the unprecedented scale of the damages.

“The difference between this war and the July 2006 war is significant,” he told Nidaa Al-Watan. “The 2006 conflict lasted 33 days, whereas this war, which began on September 17, 2024, has already exceeded 60 days and is ongoing.”  

While the total damages in 2006, both direct and indirect, were estimated at $5.3 billion, Shamseddine said the current war has already surpassed $11 billion.  

Preliminary Estimates  

Shamseddine stressed that accurate assessments remain elusive due to the conflict's continued escalation.

“It is too early to quantify the material and economic losses for two reasons,” he explained. “First, the war is ongoing, with damages increasing every hour. Second, no field surveys have been conducted in affected areas, such as southern Lebanon, Beirut’s southern suburbs, and the Bekaa Valley.”  

Current figures, he added, are preliminary and based on limited data regarding housing, commerce, industry, and agriculture.  

Breakdown of Losses  

The estimated losses are divided into two phases:  
- Phase One (October 8, 2023, to September 16, 2024): Losses totaled approximately $3 billion.  
- Phase Two (September 17, 2024, to November 15, 2024, and ongoing): Losses surged to $8 billion.  

Indirect losses include a dramatic 50% contraction in economic activity, Shamseddine pointed out.

“Daily losses during the second phase are around $30 million, compared to $6 million in the first phase,” he noted, adding that over the last two months alone, indirect losses are estimated at $1.8 billion, with the total indirect losses for the conflict reaching $3.86 billion.  

Housing and Infrastructure Devastated  

Residential areas have been hit particularly hard, with 220,000 housing units affected:  
- 45,000 completely destroyed  
- 30,000 partially destroyed  
- 145,000 sustaining minor damages  

Reconstruction costs are estimated at $4.85 billion, though this figure excludes luxury properties. Infrastructure damages are estimated at $580 million, lower than the $900 million recorded in 2006. Losses to the commercial, industrial, and tourism sectors amount to $530 million, while agricultural and environmental damages total $1.1 billion. The cost of debris removal is projected at $400 million. 

The combined direct and indirect losses now stand at $11.32 billion.  

Displacement and Unemployment Surge  

The conflict has displaced 800,095 people, with 200,000 residing in shelters. An estimated 593,029 individuals—379,883 Syrians and 213,141 Lebanese—have fled to Syria, while 150,000 have sought refuge in countries such as Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Gulf states, as well as Europe and North America.  

The war has also devastated the labor market, with more than 250,000 individuals losing their jobs in conflict zones such as the Bekaa Valley, southern Lebanon, and Beirut’s southern suburbs.

“If the war continues, unemployment will spread beyond these areas as economic stagnation forces businesses to close,” Shamseddine warned.  

Questions Over Government Figures  

Shamseddine criticized the Lebanese government’s statistics, describing them as inaccurate. Official casualty figures list 3,445 deaths and 14,599 injuries, but Shamseddine suggested the true numbers are higher, particularly when accounting for unreported Hezbollah casualties and unidentified remains.  

During the 2006 conflict, government figures similarly underestimated the death toll, reporting 900 fatalities and 4,000 injuries.  

Looming Economic Collapse  

The war has also severely impacted state revenues. Shamseddine highlighted a significant drop in airport departure taxes, which fell by $11.5 million in September and October. Losses for November are projected to reach $40 million.